The Atlanta Braves are rolling right now, running out to a 19-7 record and losing just two of their last 13 games. Now, they’ll head back on the road where they’re 8-3 this season when they take on the trendy Seattle Mariners.
Our Braves vs Mariners predictions see some life offensively for the hosts over the last week and they will be hoping to see some continued progression out of young Bryce Miller on Monday.
Let's dive right into it with our MLB picks for Braves vs. Mariners on Monday, April 29.
Braves vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Mariners moneyline (+140 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Seattle Mariners, as I’ve stated many times over, are a very bizarrely-constructed team offensively. They’ve loaded up with high-strikeout, fly-ball-happy hitters in one of the unfriendliest parks in baseball, and as a result, have struggled to find much offense when playing in Seattle – winning just nine of 16 games to begin the year.
Their best performances have actually come against ground ball pitchers, who force them to deviate from the poor approach at the plate that they take. They’re hitting .248 versus ground-ball pitchers with a .736 OPS as compared to a .652 OPS against fly-ball pitchers and a .625 OPS when dealing with a pitcher who finds themselves in the middle.
Max Fried is certainly a ground ball pitcher, rolling them up at a 65.4% rate which ranks in the top 2% of the league – a number that was already strong a season ago at 59.2% and has grown this year as his strikeout numbers have dipped.
Fried’s high .255 expected batting average isn’t much of an issue here given the Atlanta Braves’ infield ranks fourth in the league in Outs Above Average, but I certainly think the matchup is something of an issue. If you’re not striking out the Mariners, they can do a bit of damage.
On the flip side, Miller – like many of the Mariners – is a fly ball pitcher, which does make sense from a pitching perspective in a poor home run park. That should help quiet some of the Braves’ other-worldly power and his positive 26.2% strikeout rate – roughly four points better than average – should go to work here against a team that has been menacing at the plate but not quite elite in the strikeout category.
This is a rare spot to play Seattle, in my eyes, and the price is hard to pass up.
Braves vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Mariners moneyline
Bryce Miller 5+ strikeouts
Ty France to record a hit
Given the line on Seattle, it won’t be very hard to beef this parlay up into a fruitful zone. With that, I’m going to be a bit conservative with the first leg and go for Miller to strike out five hitters, something that he’s done in all but one of his five starts this season.
The Braves, as I alluded to, are just 14th in strikeout rate this season at 22.3% and can certainly be had in that department by a guy improving his strikeout rate seemingly with every month in the big leagues. The last three starters to face the Braves have struck out five or more, and Miller should be plenty capable here.
Then, I’ll take a shot on Ty France here in what should be a friendly matchup. Strikeouts are really his Achilles heel, and against a guy well under 20% for the year, he should be in a great spot to do damage. He’s been making great contact this year with one of the highest expected batting averages in the league and as a guy who mashed lefties last year, I think he’s due for some positive regression eventually from his .211 average to this point, especially against a guy who should give up a lot of contact.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Mariners odds
Braves vs Mariners live odds
Braves vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -147 | Seattle +135
- Moneyline: Atlanta -1.5 (+110) | Seattle +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Braves vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- It seems that every time this line moves towards Seattle, it corrects instantly. The line opened at Seattle +130 before quickly moving to +120 and leveling right back an hour later at +120. We saw two moves towards Seattle as the day progressed on Monday to +125 and +120, and each time it bounced back to +130.
- The total, meanwhile, has dipped down from 7.5 to 7 with constant money coming in on the Under.
- It should come as no surprise, then, that while 65% of the tickets at DraftKings are on the Over, 43% of the money is on the Under. Similarly, just 15% of the tickets are on the Mariners to win, but they’ve commanded a higher 20% of the handle.
Braves vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 53 games (+11.16 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mariners
Braves vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Wa |
| Date: | Monday, 4-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, ROOT NW |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (2-0, 4.97 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryce Miller (3-2, 2.22 ERA) |
Braves vs Mariners latest injuries
Braves vs Mariners weather
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