The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles will open up a must-watch four-game set tonight at Dodger Stadium as Spencer Strider takes on Lance Lynn and the first-place Dodgers.
Combined, the two clubs are 44-12 straight up in August, with the Dodgers finishing up one of their best months in franchise history. With the Braves coming back down from elevation after a series in Colorado and the Los Angeles moneyline getting too long, is +125 the buy-back point for the home side?
Find out where my best bets lie in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Dodgers on August 31.
Braves vs Dodgers odds
Braves vs Dodgers predictions
Both pitchers’ Unders project very well in both the strikeout and total outs markets, but with the Atlanta Braves receiving so much action as road chalk, taking the Los Angeles Dodgers on the moneyline is a must-bet for me at +125.
This is a Dodgers team that is 24-4 SU in the month of August and a perfect 5-0 when Lance Lynn starts. Meanwhile, the Braves are coming back from Coors Field and the difference in elevation between Denver and Chavez Ravine is nearly 5,000 feet. Bettors always assume that moving to Colorado has the biggest effect, but batters have issues returning to sea level as the ball moves differently than it does at Coors.
This is what we call Visual Memory Index (VMI), and it takes batters some time to adjust to pitches from elevation (less movement) to more traditional movements at sea level.
The Braves go from Coors Field (5,183' above sea level) to Dodger Stadium (267')
— Josh Inglis (@Covers_josh) August 31, 2023
Visual Memory Index is certainly at play today
What is VMI?https://t.co/qzpoBKYklU. pic.twitter.com/xDmsFnKobb
The Braves are coming off beating up on the Rockies and scored at will, but the quick turnaround to sea level could play a negative factor today for the Atlanta offense. At solid plus money for the hottest team in baseball, it’s a no-brainer — even if the VMI effect is small today.
Lots of bettors will be hitting the Dodgers just because of the price, but the starting pitching matchup isn’t as lopsided as this line is indicating, as Lynn is boasting a 2.03 ERA with Los Angeles through five starts.
My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (+125 at bet365)
Braves vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Strider Over 1.5 earned runs
Strider Under 7.5 strikeouts
Lynn Over 2.5 earned runs
Lynn Under 5.5 strikeouts
It's a full fade on both pitchers tonight at Chavez Ravine. Combining Spencer Strider and Lynn to go Over their earned runs total is a solid play at +190 alone, as both offenses are elite and the 1.5 total has a high win probability.
Both clubs rank in the Top 3 in K% in August and are putting lots of balls in play. The VMI issue is a little concerning for the Atlanta offense, but Lynn's Under 5.5 Ks prop offers great value thanks to a shorter leash under manager Dave Roberts.
Additionally, neither pitcher projects for more than 16 outs tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Braves vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers opened as +115 home dogs but have been bet up to +125/+130 as of this morning. Los Angeles will be a popular pick on the moneyline at those odds thanks to a 24-4 SU record in August, but my favorite angle is taking the home dogs due to the elevation adjustment from Coors to Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers have taken six of the last 10 meetings, including two of the three in Atlanta this year where the Dodgers prevailed as +145 and +175 dogs. The Dodgers are also a perfect 5-0 when Lynn starts, and it certainly helps that their bullpen is well-rested.
The total opened at 8 and hit 8.5 this morning. The Dodgers are the best Over team in baseball at 75-50-7 O/U, while the Over has hit in two of the three meetings this year with those totals closing at 9.5, 8.5, and 9.5.
The wind will be blowing out to left field at 9 mph tonight, but the temperature will be in the mid-70s at game time. THE BAT is projecting 5.89 combined earned runs from the starters alone and neither one to get through the sixth inning.
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Los Angeles has hit the game total Over in 66 of its last 112 games (+20.55 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Dodgers
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Braves vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, August 31, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Spencer Strider (15-4, 3.46 ERA): Strider is making his 27th start of the season and enters with a 236:47 K:BB rate over 153 innings and 18 homers allowed. He struck out 11 Dodgers batters in a six-inning outing back in late May and has allowed more than one run just once over his last five starts. Atlanta is 21-5 SU when Strider starts and THE BAT is projecting 89 pitches, 15.2 outs, 6.86 strikeouts, and 2.57 earned runs this evening.
Lance Lynn (10-9, 5.56 ERA): Lynn is making his sixth start as a Dodger and the club is undefeated when he gets the ball. His leash is shorter as a Dodger than it was in Chicago, but batters are hitting just .229 off the right-hander since he joined the team. THE BAT is projecting 89 pitches, 15.9 outs, 5.46 strikeouts, and 3.32 earned runs from Lynn tonight.
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