The Atlanta Braves and the St. Louis Cardinals square off at Busch Stadium tonight.
Atlanta will need its offense to step up after losing superstar slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. to a season-ending injury last month, and my Braves vs. Cardinals for today expect Matt Olson to do just that.
Here are my best free MLB picks for Tuesday, June 25.
Braves vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson has been in a slump over the last week, going 3-for-27 at the plate. That said, the two-time All-Star is still second on the team with 127 total bases, and he's in a great spot to break out of that slump on Tuesday.
Olson led the majors with 54 homers and was third in slugging percentage (.604) last year. While his numbers are down this season, the Braves slugger still ranks in the Top 15th percentile in both hard-hit rate and exit velocity.
The St. Louis Cardinals are sending veteran Kyle Gibson to the mound tonight. Gibson has a 3.44 ERA through 14 starts but his analytics are far less impressive. The veteran righty sits in the Bottom 30th percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rate, resulting in an expected ERA of 4.82.
The left-handed Olson boasts the platoon advantage versus Gibson and he also has a history of crushing the ball against him, going 10-for-24 with four dingers and a pair of doubles.
Braves vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases
Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 earned runs
First five inning Braves moneyline
The Cardinals have been hitting the ball better lately, but they're still just 28th in barrel rate and 25th in hard-hit rate. They'll have a tough time putting up runs against Reynaldo Lopez, who has a sizzling 1.57 ERA through 13 starts. The O/U for Lopez's runs allowed is set at 2.5, and the right-hander has gone below that number in 12 of 13 starts this year.
If Lopez pitches well and Olson rakes against Gibson, there's a good chance that the Braves will have the lead after five innings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Cardinals odds
Braves vs Cardinals live odds
Braves vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+120) | St. Louis +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -130 | St. Louis +110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Braves vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta entered this year with the second-best World Series odds (+450), but season-ending injuries to ace Spencer Strider and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. have seen that drop to +800.
- Despite losing last night, the Braves are still 8-3 in their last 11 games.
- Two weeks ago, the Cards were three games below .500, but they've gone 9-3 since.
- At the end of April, the Cards were 27th in the majors in runs per game (3.57) and 28th in slugging (.336), but they've improved those numbers to 4.32 and .406 since then.
Braves vs Cardinals trend
The Cardinals have hit the game total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.90 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals
Braves vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, BSMW |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (5-2, 1.57 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Kyle Gibson (5-2, 3.44 ERA) |
Braves vs Cardinals latest injuries
Braves vs Cardinals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
