While the last two weeks haven’t been perfect for the Toronto Blue Jays, they have now won four consecutive series. They’ll try to make it five as they continue their road trip with a four-game set against the upstart Kansas City Royals.
The starting pitching in this series should be fantastic and Game 1 is no exception with Yusei Kikuchi toeing the rubber against Brady Singer. I break down the Over/Under total and give my Blue Jays vs. Royals predictions and best MLB picks for Monday, April 22, to determine if books have overestimated how many runs are coming in Kansas City.
Blue Jays vs Royals prediction
My best bet
Under 4.5 F5 Innings (+100 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
While the Toronto Blue Jays have failed to pull off the sweep in their four straight series wins, they have generally gotten off to good starts. The Jays will have a great opportunity to do so once again when they hand the ball to Yusei Kikuchi for the opener against the Kansas City Royals.
Is Kikuchi good now? The Blue Jays' hard-throwing left-hander has been electric this season following a bounce-back campaign in 2023, and he’s looked close to unhittable in each of his last three starts, allowing just two earned runs on 11 hits while striking out 25 batters in 17 1/3 innings. He now has a 2.63 expected ERA for the season.
Tonight, he’ll stare across at an up-and-coming Royals lineup led by Bobby Witt Jr. While this team is solid, the Royals are still young and southpaws have given them some problems, as they rank 18th in OPS and 21st in wRC+ when facing lefties this season.
Kansas City counters with a bounce-back candidate of their own in Brady Singer. The right-hander is coming off a season where he pitched to a 5.52 ERA, but things look much different in 2023.
Singer has allowed just four earned runs in 23 1/3 innings this season. He’s also limiting opponents to a .163 batting average thanks mostly to his tough sinker/slider arsenal.
Meanwhile, the Jays are still looking for a power outburst from guys not named Justin Turner or Daulton Varsho. They rank 21st in batting average, 18th in OPS, and 13th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Pitching will dominate early in this one, which means I like the Under in the first five innings.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 RBIs (+160 at PROLINE+)
Is Daulton Varsho a star? Well, Blue Jays fans are hoping the answer is yes so the trade that sent Lourdes Gurriel and Gabreil Moreno to the Arizona Diamondbacks can look a little better.
At the very least, Varsho is playing like a star at the moment. The outfielder spent much of the offseason completely reworking his swing mechanics and the early results look promising because he’s been locked in over the last three series, hitting .357 with a crazy good 1.400 OPS over his last nine games. That includes three doubles and five dingers.
Varsho’s hot streak has also meant he’s been moved up in the batting order, giving him more opportunities to drive in runs batting immediately behind the team's top on-base threats. He’s got a whopping 11 RBI over this nine-game stretch.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Varsho at 0.6 RBIs so there is some value in the Over 0.5 at +160.
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Blue Jays vs Royals odds
Blue Jays vs Royals live odds
Blue Jays vs Royals opening odds
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+150) | Kansas City +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Toronto -110 | Kansas City -110
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Blue Jays vs Royals spread and Over/Under analysis
- This matchup opened with both teams listed at -110. The Blue Jays have seen the early money with the line moving to Toronto -115.
- The Blue Jays have a slight edge in starting pitching while their lineup has been a little more reliable. Toronto ranks 13th in wRC+ vs. RHP while Kansas City ranks 21st vs. LHP.
- The total hit the board at an even 8 and, somewhat surprisingly, the Over has been hammered. The number is now at 9 and there are even some 9.5s out there.
- Both bullpens have struggled with Toronto and Kansas City ranking 27th and 30th in xFIP, which is why the first five innings market is the best way to attack the total.
Blue Jays vs Royals trend
The Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games for +9.66 Units and a 31% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Royals
Blue Jays vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Monday, 4-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN1, Bally Sports Kansas City |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 2.08 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Brady Singer (2-0, 1.54 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Royals latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Royals weather
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