The Toronto Blue Jays play their second intriguing interleague series in a row this weekend as they're set to open a three-game set against the Cincinnati Reds at the Great American Ball Park.
The Blue Jays currently hold a slim half-game lead over the Seattle Mariners for the final Wild Card spot in the American League, while the Reds enter this series tied with both the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins for the final spot in the National League.
Like many games at GABP, this one is expected to start with a bang with the total sitting at 10.5. Will an inconsistent Toronto lineup be able to take advantage of an inexperienced starter?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in my free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Reds.
Blue Jays vs Reds odds
Blue Jays vs Reds predictions
If the Toronto Blue Jays want to hold off the Mariners for the final postseason spot in the American League, these are the matchups they must win.
Toronto is handing the ball to the resurgent Jose Berrios. Despite hitting a bit of a rough patch to start the month of August, his turnaround compared to last season has been impressive. Berrios' 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are solid and he’s done an excellent job of mixing his pitches to keep hitters off balance.
The former All-Star has also been shockingly good on the road lately. Berrios is pitching to a 2.59 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over his last nine starts away from home.
Tonight, he’ll stare across at a Cincinnati Reds lineup that has cooled off considerably in the second half of the season. Cincinnati ranks just 23rd in batting average, 18th in OPS, and 26th in wRC+ since coming out of the All-Star break.
The Reds counter with right-hander Brett Kennedy. If you haven’t heard of Kennedy, that’s because he’s basically been a career minor leaguer. Kennedy made one start for the Reds back on July 4, allowing four runs on five hits in five innings against the Washington Nationals. More recently, Kennedy pitched two innings of relief against the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 11.
This will be the first time that Kennedy has faced a lineup like the Blue Jays this season. While Toronto has had some issues with runners in scoring position, the Jays are still ninth in batting average, 12th in OPS, and 10th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.
You can’t expect too many innings out of Kennedy either, so that should mean plenty of work for a Reds bullpen that ranks 27th in xFIP and 22nd in WHIP.
I have been cautious about taking Toronto on the run line a lot this season due to its inconsistent offense, but I'm ready to take the plunge in a lopsided pitching matchup against a reeling Cincy team.
My best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+101 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Reds same-game parlay
Blue Jays -1.5
Merrifield o1.5 hits
De La Cruz o1.5 total bases
As always, our same-game parlay starts with our best bet, which today is taking the Blue Jays on the run line. But in true Great American Ball Park fashion, we’ve got to add some legs that involve some hits.
Let’s start with non-other than Blue Jays leadoff man Whit Merrifield. The uber utility man is hitting .301 and has been even better in the second half. Merrifield owns a .336 average since coming out of the All-Star break with 13 multi-hit games in 28 starts. Take Merrifield Over 1.5 hits.
And while Berrios has been effective this season, he is still giving up some hard contact. In particular, left-handed hitters have slashed for a .272 batting average and a .787 OPS against the Jays right-hander.
To make matters worse for Berrios, there aren’t many out there making harder contact than Elly De La Cruz. The Reds rookie has cooled off a bit after a hot start to his big-league career, but the matchup with Berrios should be a good one for the shortstop. De La Cruz has much more pop from the left side as he has a .828 OPS and nine of his 10 home runs.
Add in the Over on Elly's 1.5 total bases for a juicy +1,000 payout.
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Blue Jays vs Reds moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as roughly -155 road favorites but it’s the Reds who have seen the early money as home dogs with Toronto coming down as low as -145 depending on the book.
But as I broke down above, I believe there is some value in the Blue Jays at this price on the moneyline as well as the runline. They have a massive edge in starting pitching, bullpens, and with the way the Reds lineup has come back down to Earth of late, maybe even the lineups as well. This is a more than reasonable price to back the Jays at.
As for the total, it hit the board at a high 10.5 and that’s where it sits as of Friday afternoon. There are a few reasons its that high. One, it’s the Great American Ball Park, and theoretically, Toronto’s lineup should excel in this matchup against some sub-par Cincinnati pitching. However, the Jays still struggle to string together hits and as a result rank 28th in OPS with runners in scoring position this season.
On top of that, Berrios is more than capable of shutting down a struggling Reds lineup. While I can certainly see both lineups busting out in this matchup, I wouldn’t bet on it. Not to mention the fact the Under is 15-4 in the Blue Jays last 19 games. So, I’m staying away from the total tonight.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays are 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Reds
Blue Jays vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Friday, August 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (9-8, 3.53 ERA): Berrios' turnaround in 2023 has been just what the Blue Jays pitching staff needed. That said, Berrios has hit a rough patch in August, allowing nine runs (six earned) on 15 hits over 10 innings in his last two starts.
Brett Kennedy (1-0, 5.14 ERA): Kennedy has performed well at Triple-A Louisville, pitching to a 3.52 ERA in 13 appearances (12 starts). The right-hander also owned a 1.29 WHIP and struck out less than a batter per inning in those games.
