Blue Jays vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Jays Lineup Cracks Corbin

The matchup on the mound may distinctly favor the Brewers, but we still think the Blue Jays can get to Corbin Burnes in their current form, and are putting our faith in their lineup at this price. See which Jay we're fading, however, as our best MLB bet.

Jun 25, 2022 • 11:02 ET • 4 min read
Bo Bichette Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays landed the first blow in their three-game interleague set with the Milwaukee Brewers with last night’s 9-4 victory. Things will get exponentially more difficult tonight for the visitors as they’ll go from -140 favorites yesterday to +155 dogs this afternoon as Corbin Burnes gets the ball for the Brew Crew. 

Yusei Kikuchi and the Toronto pen are tough to trust, but is this a price that's tough to pass up with the league's best offense? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Jays vs. Brewers.

Blue Jays vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Brewers have seen plenty of confidence in the market as they opened as long as -150 but hit -180 as of 8:30 am today. They closed as +120 dogs in the opener yesterday so this 100-point swing in price is significant and is a good reflection of the pitching advantage the Brewers have today. The total sits at 8 and leans slightly to the Over. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Brewers predictions

Picks made on 6/25/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Blue Jays vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Saturday, June 25, 2022
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports

Blue Jays vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Yusei Kikuchi (2-3, 4.94 ERA): It’s been a while since we’ve seen a solid outing from the Toronto left-hander. He hasn’t recorded more than 15 outs in six straight starts and has allowed 18 runs over that stretch across 21-plus innings. The command is a serious issue with 34 walks in 54 innings of work, and Kikuchi has also given up multiple home runs in three of his last four turns. He currently sits in the bottom two percent of the league in barrel%, xERA, Hardhit%, avg exit velocity and xwOBA. The Jays are 4-9 SU in his starts and 8-5 O/U.

Corbin Burnes (5-4, 2.31 ERA): Burnes comes in as the No. 3 choice in National League Cy Young odds behind Sandy Alcantara (+300) and Joe Musgrove (+400). The right-hander currently leads the NL in K/9, WAR and K% while opponents are hitting just .192 off him. His secondary pitches (curveball and slider) both have a whiff rate greater than 44% but the Brewers are just 8-6 SU in his starts and 5-7 O/U.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Blue Jays: Alejandro Kirk C (Doubtful), George Springer OF (Questionable), Yimi Garcia RP (Out), Trevor Richards RP (Out).
Brewers: Mike Brosseau 3B (Questionable), Kolten Wong 2B (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in the Blue Jays’ last six when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Brewers

Blue Jays vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Jays trotted out their Cy Young candidate yesterday, as Alek Manoah and Toronto got a comfortable 9-4 win thanks to a five-run second inning from this George Springer-less offense. It might not be as easy today versus Corbin Burnes, though.

This is the best offense in baseball over the last 30 days in nearly every metric, and if it weren’t for some struggling starting pitching and inconsistent bullpen, the Jays would be much better than 12-10 SU this month. 

The Toronto bats have fared well versus top-end starters (most notable Dylan Cease, Tarik Skubal and Luis Severino) and might be able to scratch a few across the plate versus Burnes and his cutter. The Jays are an above-average cutter-hitting team and only Santiago Espinal and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have negative run values vs. the pitch. Alejandro Kirk, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Matt Chapman are all slugging over .690 against cutters this season. Kirk will likely sit, though, after X-rays came back negative on his hand, but there is plenty of talent to replace him in the order. 

Burnes’ velocity is down slightly from last season and he's getting barrelled at nearly twice the rate he was a season ago. This is still an elite pitcher, but he hasn’t been as unhittable as he was a season ago. He’ll also see a Jays team that is striking out at under 20% over the last 30 days, which is a Top-5 mark. We don’t hate this spot for the Jays’ offense, but trusting Yusei Kikuchi and this bullpen might have us hitting a team total rather than the Toronto moneyline.

Kikuchi walks a ton of batters and gives up some of the hardest-hit balls in baseball. He has a great fastball from the left side, but struggles to locate it. He also uses a ton of pitches and will likely hand things over to this Toronto bullpen in the fifth or sixth inning. Getting 12 outs from this group of Toronto relievers is asking a lot, as they’re missing some key middle arms, and although the ERAs aren’t too shabby, getting through four Toronto relievers without an incident is rare. Their 4.98 ERA over the last 30 days is the fifth-worst in baseball.

Ultimately, this game is coming down to price for us. We know betting with Kikuchi and this bullpen is a rollercoaster, but Milwaukee struggles mightily vs. left-handed pitching, and hitching our wagon to one of the best offenses at +155 isn’t ridiculous. The Jays can handle elite pitching and are 6-1 SU as +140 dogs or longer on the season. If we’re going to ride with Kikuchi, we’re doing it at good plus money.

PredictionBlue Jays moneyline (+155 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Burnes’ starts don’t usually have totals above 7.5. Over his last 12 games this season, the righty hasn’t seen a closing total of 8 or higher. He’s 5-7-1 O/U in those games but 4-1 to the Over in his last five. June has been his worst month by far as he owns a 3.43 ERA compared to a 1.75 ERA in April and a 2.08 ERA in May. As the weather has warmed, Burnes has been getting hit a little harder. 

No team in baseball is hitting the ball better than the Jays right now. They might not lead the league in long balls, but they are slashing .291/.358./.509, which leads the league over the last 30 days. Their 144 wRC+ is 13 points better than the next team (Yankees) which is substantial in a baseline metric measuring against an average team. Springer could also make an appearance today, as he was hitting BP before yesterday’s opener. It’s a tough task to plate versus Burnes and this bullpen, but we’re high on the Jays topping their team total of 3.5.

Even with Kirk likely sitting out, there is still a ton of pop in this lineup and Alex Moreno is hitting .379 over his first 29 big-league at-bats.

Milwaukee is sitting with a team total of 4.5 paying plus money for the Over, and getting five runs versus Kikuchi and the pen should be more probable than the 48.8% price is indicating. Kikuchi gives up some of the hardest-hit balls in all of baseball and the Brewers still know how to go long, as they have the 10th-most home runs vs. LHP and the fourth-most in baseball — right ahead of the Jays. 

Burnes hasn’t been as dominant as he was last season and has been getting hit harder as the temperature has gone up. The Jays are hitting better than anyone in baseball and should be able to cross the plate today with their impressive and deep lineup. Kikuchi and the pen are about as targetable for an Over as it gets in baseball.

Most books have hit the 8, but FanDuel is still hanging a 7.5.

PredictionOver 7.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Although we like the runs and the Jays, when we see a +EV prop line, we never pass it up.

Raimel Tapai is one of the weakest hitters in this lineup and is always a threat to get subbed out defensively with Bradley Zimmer on the bench. On the season, the light-hitting outfielder is hitting .256 but slugging .363. He doesn’t have good plate discipline with a 38/7 K/BB ratio. 

He was riding a nine-game hit streak that saw him bump up his average up 12 points, but facing Burnes and one of the best bullpens in baseball is a tough matchup for the lower-third hitter, who sits in the Bottom 1% in chase rate. Burnes sits in the Top 4% in chase rate.

Even with his pedestrian numbers, Tapia might even be hitting above his worth right now and we’re happy to take his plus money odds to go hitless on Saturday afternoon versus one of the best starters in baseball.

Raimel Tapia prop pick: Under 0.5 total bases (+135 at DraftKings)


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