I'm back from a solid vacation and ready to smash some more dingers. I've run up over 24 units of profit over the last nine articles and am looking at some All-Stars today to keep the good times rolling with today's MLB player props and homers.
Bobby Witt Jr. will get to feast on a tired Mets bullpen all game, while the best AL rookie has a great price vs. a starter that should regress and a bullpen that gives up bombs.
These are my favorite home run predictions for Tuesday, July 7.
Best MLB home run props today
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Bobby Witt Jr.
Kevin McGonigle
Home run pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+454)
It's a big name at a big price with a nine-inning home run edge. Bobby Witt Jr. and this Kansas City Royals offense get to face a tired Mets bullpen that used six arms yesterday and has leaned on its three best relievers in back-to-back games. New York is going with a bullpen game to add injury to insult, and this staff has allowed 29 runs over its last three games.
Witt might only have three homers over the last 30 days, but he also missed a week, has nine games under his belt since returning, and ranks 10th in all of baseball in BlastContact% (23.2%) over that span. The home runs and hard contact are coming, and there could be a handful before the All-Star break.
The Royals' shortstop might see three or four different pitchers today, but that also means he'll get plenty of plate appearances against the weaker arms in New York's bullpen over nine innings.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Royals.TV
Home run pick: Kevin McGonigle (+575)
Let's add another All-Star to the home run card at a +EV price of +575 with a fair price closer to +475. The Rookie of the Year frontrunner, Kevin McGonigle, is leading off and should get five plate appearances today against J.T. Ginn, who has been pitching above his underlying numbers all season.
The Athletics' starter has also cut his HR/FB rate in half despite generating more fly-ball outs. Regression is coming.
Detroit's offense also gets to tee off on an Athletics bullpen that owns the worst HR/FB rate in baseball over the last 30 days, the worst HR/9, and the second-worst ERA.
Anything at +500 or better is a play on the rookie. There could also be multiple Tigers home runs today, with Spencer Torkelson (+469) and Riley Greene (+372) joining him as Detroit's most likely long-ball threats.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, NBCS-California
- HR picks: 21-123, -13.63 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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