Betting on homers is fun, but pitcher props are more predictive and offer more opportunities where the market hasn’t fully adjusted. They’re my favorite MLB player props.
Max Meyer is paying big money to dice up the second-highest K% team in baseball tonight, while Ian Seymour’s leash makes it tough to reach six punchouts.
Meanwhile, Trevor McDonald faces the league’s coldest offense, and his hits allowed market is falling quickly.
Let's dive further into my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, July 7.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Max Meyer |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | +125 |
 Ian Seymour |
Under 5.5 strikeouts | +100 |
 Trevor McDonald |
Under 5.5 hits allowed | -118 |
Strikeout prop: Max Meyer Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125)
Let's kick off the Tuesday slate with a big plus-money Over on Miami Marlins starter Max Meyer, who projects for 6.40 Ks against the Seattle Mariners.
Meyer gets a home start where he has been better this year and faces a Mariners offense that just wrapped up a home series vs. the Jays before traveling about as far as a West Coast team can.
Seattle is a bottom-10 team in K% vs. right-handed pitching, and its 27.7 K% over the last two weeks is the second-worst mark in baseball.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, Marlins.TV
Strikeout prop: Ian Seymour Under 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
This is a big number at a great price for Ian Seymour, who projects to throw only 86 pitches and is still transitioning from a bullpen arm into a starter for the Tampa Bay Rays. Two straight appearances against the measly Royals might also be inflating his numbers more than they should.
Although the New York Yankees strike out at a high rate, expecting a strikeout per inning and 18 outs from a pitcher on this type of leash is something I’m betting against tonight. THE BAT projections have him closer to 5.12 strikeouts, with a fair price landing around -145.
New York also handles left-handed arms well, ranking fourth in baseball this season in wRC+ against southpaws.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen isn’t a strength, but nearly every arm is available tonight behind a pitcher with a limited track record and a relatively short leash for this elevated strikeout prop.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Rays.TV
Hits allowed prop: Trevor McDonald Under 5.5 hits allowed (-118)
This is a giant number for a short-leashed pitcher facing a non-existent Toronto Blue Jays offense.
Trevor McDonald projects for around 90 pitches tonight, which might be generous for a guy who has thrown more than 90 pitches just once over his last eight starts. The San Francisco Giants right-hander is coming off a one-hit outing and projects as a better-than-a-hit-per-inning starter.
McDonald gets the coldest offense in baseball, which has managed just three runs and 13 hits over its last four games and has done nothing offensively since hitting the West Coast last week. Toronto hasn’t recorded more than three hits in three straight games.
Because of that, the Giants bullpen is fresh and ready to go, making a 15-out outing from McDonald very realistic. It's time to fade the Jays until this offense shows signs of life.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NBC Sports Bay Area
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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