Team USA narrowly avoided disaster before and during the elimination stage and will now play in the 2026 World Baseball Classic Final against Venezuela tonight.
The Venezuelans made it here in comeback fashion with Monday's win over Italy. Our Venezuela vs. USA predictions and World Baseball Classic best bets explain why Maikel Garcia & Co. will keep things close on Tuesday, March 17.
Venezuela vs. USA prediction
| Result | Price | |
|---|---|---|
 USA -1.5 |
No - 46 cents | Trade at Kalshi |
On Kalshi, a contract priced at 46 cents implies a 46% probability of Venezuela staying within a two-run deficit.
In betting terms, you’re effectively “buying” a win for $0.46, equivalent to +117 in traditional American odds.
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Venezuela vs. USA odds
My prediction: USA -1.5 - No (46 cents at Kalshi)
What a contrast in starting pitchers.
Venezuela hands the ball to veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez while the USA counters with top New York Mets pitching prospect Nolan McLean.
I don’t expect either starter to go too long, as this will be a battle of bullpens. With David Bednar unavailable for the Americans, Venezuela has a slight edge.
Andres Machado, Angel Zerpa, Jose Butto, and Daniel Palencia haven't allowed a run in a combined 18 1/3 innings with 23 strikeouts.
I like Acuna & Co. to jump on the young McLean early and keep this game tight and exciting throughout.
How to watch Venezuela vs USA and game info
| Location | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date | Tuesday, March 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Venezuela starting pitcher | Eduardo Rodriguez |
| USA starting pitcher | Nolan McLean |
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts," which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Eagles win this Sunday?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on Venezuela vs USA at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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