The New York Yankees bats finally showed up yesterday as they were able to salvage their series with the Tampa Bay Rays by winning the finale 7-2. Will they be able to keep that going when they welcome the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros to town?
The Astros and Yankees open a three-game set at Yankee Stadium on Friday night and the game is close to a pick’em with Cristian Javier set to toe the rubber against Clarke Schmidt. I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in my MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Yankees.
Astros vs Yankees odds
Astros vs Yankees predictions
The Yankees bats finally broke out last night, and against Rays ace Shane McClanahan of all people. However, can they sustain that in tonight’s series opener against the Astros?
The numbers for the Yankees batters haven’t been pretty for the last two months. A lot of that coincided with Aaron Judge’s injury, but since the MVP returned from the IL, savvy teams are pitching around him and opting to face the struggling batters that follow him.
The Yankees rank dead last in batting average and 25th in OPS since the start of June. On top of that, they rank 27th in major leagues when it comes to OPS with runners in scoring position for the season. So, it’s no surprise that scoring has been an issue with this team.
Last night was just the second time in their last 11 games vs. teams not named the Kansas City Royals where they plated more than three runs. They are scoring just 3.7 runs per game in their last 14 games overall, and I think scoring will be a problem for them once again tonight.
The Astros hand the ball to Cristian Javier for the opener. The right-hander isn’t having the season most expected so far, but he looks like he might be starting to turn things around.
It’s not outstanding but Javier has allowed eight runs on eight hits over his last three starts. The encouraging part is opponents are hitting just .146 and he has struck out 21 batters in 16 2/3 innings over those three starts.
Javier also has outstanding numbers against the Yankees. He made three starts against them last season, including one in the postseason, and he allowed just one run on three hits while striking out 21 in 17 1/3 innings. New York also ranks 28th in batting average when facing right-handers this season.
Javier will then hand the ball off to a strong Houston bullpen that ranks ninth in xFIP and leads the big leagues in strikeouts per nine innings. One good game doesn’t have me thinking the Yankees have suddenly figured it out. I’m taking the Under on their team total.
My best bet: Yankees Under 4.5 team total (-135 at bet365)
Astros vs Yankees same-game parlay
Yankees Under 4.5 team total
Torres Under 0.5 hits
Stanton Under 0.5 hits
For our same-game parlay, I’m going to keep picking on the Yankees hitters. As always, we start with our best bet which is the Yankees to go Under their team total of 4.5. Let’s single out some of those hitters specifically, starting with Gleyber Torres.
I broke this down in today's MLB props article today, and to be fair, Torres has actually been one of the few reliable hitters for the Yankees lately. But when facing Javier, Torres is 0-7 with a strikeout in his career.
He’s not the only one who could put up a donut in the hits column tonight (I’m looking at you, Giancarlo Stanton)! Stanton is hitting .175 over his last 15 games and is 1-6 with five strikeouts in his career vs. Javier.
We hit all three and walk away with a +650 winner.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Astros vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Yankees opened this matchup as slight home underdogs, but the Bronx Bombers have since seen a bit of action with the line moving close to -110 both ways.
It makes sense when you look at the respective starters' expected ERAs. Javier comes in at 4.49 while Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt is sitting at 4.28, and the bullpens are close to a wash. However, Houston has a massive edge when it comes to the lineups.
The Astros rank sixth in batting average, eighth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+ since coming out of the All-Star break. So, I would lean toward the road team at this reasonable price.
The total hit the board at 9.0 and I would lean Under here as well. I’m not expecting much from the Yanks here, so the Astros would have to do the heavy lifting.
But while Schmidt hasn’t been spectacular, you could say he’s been solid. The right-hander is pitching to a 3.20 ERA over his last 12 starts, never allowing more than three earned runs over that stretch.
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Trend to know
The Yankees have hit the Under for their team total in 29 of their last 45 games for +12.20 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees
Astros vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, August 3, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Cristian Javier (7-2, 4.33 ERA): The biggest difference between this year and last for Javier is the strikeouts. The right-hander has seen his K-rate drop from 33.2% to 22.9%.
Clarke Schmidt (7-6, 4.39 ERA): I would call Schmidt a reliable arm for the Yankees this season. He has limited opponents to three earned runs or fewer in 12 consecutive starts.
