The Seattle Mariners (30-26) have taken each of the first two games of the series against the Houston Astros (24-31) in low-scoring wins.
Game 3 on Wednesday is a pick ‘em according to MLB odds, while the total is set at 7.
Will it be another disappointing offensive output in a starting pitching duel between Justin Verlander and George Kirby? Read on for my Astros vs Mariners predictions and full MLB picks for Wednesday, May 29.
Astros vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Under 7 (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Houston Astros starter Justin Verlander just keeps chugging along in his age-41 season. He’s no longer at the pinnacle of pitching greatness, but he’s remained effective with a 3.60 ERA and 3.79 xERA through seven starts. There’s undoubtedly some juice left in the tank as he ranks third in Stuff+ (122) among starting pitchers who have tossed at least 40 innings.
He faces off with a slightly below-average Seattle Mariners lineup that ranks 21st in wRC+ (96) and 24th in wOBA (.297) in the month of May. They have the league’s highest K% (29.1%) against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days and that’s not an abnormality as their season-long K% is at 29%.
The Mariners counter with George Kirby. He’s looking for a quick rebound after allowing five earned runs in each of his last two starts. Both occurred on the road, and the Elon University product will be glad to return to T-Mobile Park, where he has a 4-1 record and 2.97 ERA.
The 26-year-old hurler has notable home-away splits throughout his successful two-and-a-half-year career. He’s been mediocre on the road (4.12 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) but downright nasty at home (2.95 ERA, 1.00 WHIP).
I’m not overly concerned with the recent struggles. Kirby ranks in the 77th percentile in Chase%, the 74th percentile in Hard-Hit%, and the 99th percentile in BB%. He checks in at 13th in Pitching+ (106) among qualified starters led by his strong performance in Location+ (106) as a known marksman.
His left-on-base % finished at exactly 75.1% in each of the last two years but has fallen to 68% this season, so his ERA seems due for positive regression once he begins stranding runners at his usual rate once more.
We have two quality starting pitchers in a game where both teams have trended heavily to the Under all year, so I’ll bet on another one coming through.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7
Justin Verlander Over 6.5 strikeouts
Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 hits
Verlander has eclipsed the 6.5 strikeout barrier in two of his last three starts, most recently punching out nine Oakland Athletics batters across six innings. The only team with a higher K% than the As this season is the Mariners (27.9%).
There’s struggling against an opposing pitcher and then there’s being utterly incapable of offering any resistance. Cal Raleigh has been more of the latter against Verlander in his career, going 1-for-17 with seven strikeouts and a .170 OPS. The veteran pitcher has been lights-out against lefties, holding them to a .187 BA since 2022.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Mariners odds
Astros vs Mariners live odds
Astros vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 | Seattle -1.5
- Moneyline: Houston +104 | Seattle -112
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Astros vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle has won each of its last three games, including the first two of this series. Houston has dropped three of its last four games.
- Seattle is 4-1 in Kirby’s five starts at home. Houston is 1-4 in Verlander’s last five starts overall.
- Both teams have played to the Under this year — Houston is 21-30 O/U while Seattle is 21-31 O/U. They’ve combined to go 3-6-1 O/U in the last 10 meetings with one another.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of a sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Astros vs Mariners trend
Seattle is 8-18-1 O/U at home while Houston is 9-16-1 O/U on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs Mariners.
Astros vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
SCHN, RSNW
|
| Astros starting pitcher: | Justin Verlander (3-2, 3.60 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (4-5, 4.33 ERA) |
Astros vs Mariners latest injuries
Astros vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
