It’s a weird year out West. The entire American League West — which includes the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers — has a negative run differential.
The third-place Astros Houston Astros, who can’t pitch, take on the first-place Seattle Mariners, who can’t hit, in the opener of a four-game set on May 27, and my Astros vs. Mariners prediction is expecting these sides to eclipse the total of 7.5. Find out why in my MLB picks ahead.
Astros vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
While the Seattle Mariners are in first place in the AL West, they're just two games over .500, have a negative -7 run differential, and the only AL team that has scored fewer runs than the M’s are the God-awful Chicago White Sox.
And even though the biggest problem for the Houston Astros this season has been pitching, you would think with Opening Day starter Framber Valdez on the mound, those issues wouldn’t be so bad. Not so fast.
Let’s start with the Mariners, who hang their hats on pitching. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert are the Big 3, and today’s starter, Bryce Miller, has tried to make it a Big 4. However, while the 25-year-old right-hander got his 2024 off to a solid start, May has been rocky.
Miller sports a 5.79 ERA while surrendering a .732 OPS over his last four starts, allowing four or more earned runs three times over that stretch and at least five hits in all five. That includes allowing four runs on six hits over six innings against this same Houston lineup back on May 5.
That’s an Astros lineup featuring lefty sluggers Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Houston ranks second in batting average, third in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season.
Then there is Valdez. Yes, he was the Opening Day starter for Houston, but early-season elbow inflammation cost him most of the month of April. Since his return, however, it’s been hard to tell what to expect from the southpaw.
Take his last two starts. On May 15, he shut out the Oakland A’s on two hits over seven innings. He followed that up by getting torched for eight runs on 10 hits in five innings against the Angels. Valdez has also made one start against the Mariners this season, where he gave up five runs on nine hits in 5 1/3.
It looks like oddsmakers have set this total thinking Valdez is the Valdez of old, going against a Mariners team that struggles to score. But the specific matchup and current form of both pitchers tell me we are getting value with the Over at this low number.
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Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Jose Altuve 1+ hit
Yanier Diaz 1+ hit
Cal Raleigh 1+ hit
Dylan Moore 1+ hit
I'm adding two players from each team to get a hit to pair with the Over 7.5. Hitters are going to have to produce those runs, right?
From Houston, it’s going to be Jose Altuve and Yanier Diaz. Altuve is Altuve and is 3-for-8 in his career vs. Miller, while Diaz is 2-for-5 with a double and a .425 expected batting average.
For Seattle, it’s going to be Cal Raleigh and Dylan Moore. These two have respective xBAs of .448 and .323 and xSLGs of .740 and .453 in their careers vs. Valdez.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Mariners odds
Astros vs Mariners live odds
Astros vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+135) | Seattle +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Houston -120 | Seattle +100
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Astros vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners opened this AL West matchup as even-money underdogs and have been faded just slightly, now sitting in the +105 range.
- The Mariners won the series between these two earlier in the month, taking two of three games. But both Vladez and Miller lost their respective starts.
- The total hit the board at 7.5, and that's where it remains as of Monday afternoon.
- Both Houston (21-29 O/U) and Seattle (21-30 O/U) have been solid Under bets this season. But once again, two of the three games last series went Over this number.
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Astros vs Mariners trend
The Mariners have hit the run line in 12 of their last 20 games at home for +7.70 Units and a 35% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners
Astros vs Mariners game info
| Location: | Stadium, City, State/Province |
| Date: | Monday, 5-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, Root Sports Northwest |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (3-2, 4.32 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryce Miller (3-5, 3.53 ERA) |
Astros vs Mariners latest injuries
Astros vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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