Astros vs Mariners ALDS Game 3 Picks and Predictions: Mariners Turn to Rookie With Season at Stake

Sportsbooks are giving the Mariners a decent chance to keep their season alive in their first home playoff game in over two decades. But our MLB picks see value in the Astros to seal the deal in Game 3 — with Jeremy Pena putting numbers on the board.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 15, 2022 • 13:20 ET • 4 min read
Jeremy Pena Houston Astros MLB picks
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners get to play their first postseason game at home in 21 years when they host the Houston Astros for Game 3 of their American League Division Series. 

But if the M’s don’t play their best game, it could also be the last game of their season as they trail the Astros two games to none. 

With their season on the line, the Mariners will hand the ball to rookie George Kirby, while the Astros counter with veteran Lance McCullers Jr. Is there value in backing Seattle to stave off elimination, or will Houston advance to yet another ALCS?

I dig through the numbers to find the best bet in our MLB picks and predictions for the Astros vs. Mariners on October 15.   

Astros vs Mariners best odds

Astros vs Mariners picks and predictions

With a win in Saturday’s Game 3, the Astros can return to the American League Championship Series for the sixth consecutive season. The Mariners will do their best to prevent that, but to do so, it will require something they haven’t done much of this series — slow down Yordan Alvarez.

Alvarez is coming off an incredible season in which he hit .308 with a .1.019 OPS and 37 home runs. And that's carried over to the postseason, as he's gone 4-8 with three-extra base hits and seven RBIs. But no hit has been bigger than his walk-off three-run shot with two outs in the bottom of the ninth in Game 1. 

Unfortunately, everyone — including your sportsbook — is well aware of this by now, and there is little value to be found in Alvarez’s props. But I think I’ve found a way around that.

The guy hitting just in front of Alvarez is shortstop Jeremy Pena and he’s done an excellent job setting the table for Alvarez by getting on base. The Astros rookie has a .444 on-base percentage through the first two games of this series and has scored three runs. 

While it’s a small sample size, he's 1-2 against Kirby in his career, and with the Mariners starter not being at his best down the stretch, backing Pena to get on and pushed across home plate by Alvarez (or any other of his capable teammates) once again looks like a very solid bet.

My best bet: Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 runs (+120 at bet365)

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Astros vs Mariners ALDS odds

Teams Odds to win series
Steelers Houston Astros -1,800
Browns Seattle Mariners +1,100

Astros vs Mariners moneyline analysis

It would feel a little unsatisfying to see the Mariners play just one postseason game at home after a 21-year absence. But that’s the way things are trending with the Astros holding a 2-0 series lead. And while oddsmakers think this Seattle’s best shot to get a win in this series, what I’m seeing is a little value on Houston.

Both teams are sitting at around the -110 range on the moneyline for Game 3 and I’m not entirely sure why.

Yes, this is just McCullers’ ninth start of the season, but the numbers to this point have been more than solid. He’s got a 2.27 ERA, 50 strikeouts in 47 2-3 innings of work, and is pitching deep into ball games, averaging nearly six innings per start.

McCullers also has important postseason experience. The 29-year-old has already made 16 postseason appearances in his career, where he owns a 2.83 ERA, while the Mariners are countering with a guy making his first career postseason start.

Now, Kirby has been great this season, but stumbled a bit down the stretch, pitching to a 5.89 ERA over his final three starts of the regular season.

And of course, these offenses are just on a different level. Houston ranks 12th in batting average, seventh in OPS and fourth in home runs while Seattle ranks 29th, 14th, and 10th in those same categories. 

It’s not an official play for me, but it’s hard to fade the Astros in this spot at this value.

Astros vs Mariners Over/Under analysis

It’s another postseason game, another low total with Game 3 getting posted at 7. But this number feels a little too small for this matchup.

The Astros were a Top-10 scoring team this season, plating 4.6 runs per game, and that hasn’t stopped in the postseason, as they have put up 12 runs over the first two games of this series, and now get a decent matchup against Kirby. Houston can do most of the heavy lifting here.

And even though the Mariners have not been a great offense at home, the crowd at T-Mobile Park should be bumping and that electric atmosphere should help power them to a few more runs. 

Astros vs Mariners trend to know

The Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 games on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners

Astros vs Mariners game info

Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date: Saturday, October 15, 2022
First pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers

Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2, 2.27 ERA)McCullers is making just his ninth start of the season thanks to a strained flexor tendon. But the right-hander has looked effective in limited action, holding opponents to a .215 batting average and striking out more than a batter an inning to go along with his nice ERA.   

George Kirby (8-5, 3.39 ERA)Kirby had an outstanding rookie campaign for the Mariners, using his large array of pitches to keep hitters off balance. The right-hander went on a stretch of 12 straight games where he allowed three earned runs or fewer in each. But it looks like Kirby hit a bit of a rookie wall down the stretch.   

Astros vs Mariners latest injuries

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Astros vs Mariners weather

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