The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are locked in a battle for the AL wild card, with Houston holding a slim half-game lead entering this week’s contentious series in Seattle.
Can the Mariners jump the Astros and take over the final wild-card spot with a win on Monday?
Let’s break down Astros vs. Mariners in our MLB picks and predictions.
Astros vs Mariners odds
Astros vs Mariners predictions
I can't stress this enough, the Seattle Mariners offense has been far from stellar of late. Sure, they had a fleeting moment of brilliance a couple of weeks back, but when you zoom out and inspect their performance over the last 14 days, you're met with a rather unimpressive 97 wRC+.
Credit where it's due, Seattle has made marginal improvements in their strikeout rates during this span. However, they're still striking out at a rate of 23.8%. Add in a measly 7.7% walk rate and a lackluster .141 ISO to the mix, and you have a recipe for offensive struggles.
Now, let's talk Houston Astros right-hander Justin Verlander. While he might be stumbling down the stretch, a strikeout maestro like him should relish this matchup. The Mariners may fancy their chances against fastballs, but when it comes to handling curveballs and sliders, they rank 17th and 25th in run value, respectively. These are precisely the pitches Verlander plans to unleash, and you can bet he's champing at the bit.
Shifting gears to the other side of the diamond, Luis Castillo has had his share of struggles lately. But unlike his counterpart, the Astros have been nothing short of formidable against fastballs and even rank eighth against sliders this year.
To top it off, Houston has displayed exceptional plate discipline over the entire season, striking out in just 19.8% of their plate appearances (one of only three MLB teams with a strikeout rate under 20%). With their keen eye and proficiency against offspeed pitches, it's safe to say that Verlander should find himself with ample run support in this matchup.
My best bet: Astros moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)
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Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay
Astros moneyline
Justin Verlander 7+ strikeouts
Jeremy Pena to get a hit
We can use what we said above to build out our odds, starting with the Mariners’ propensity for the strikeout. While Verlander’s been struggling to rack up Ks at his usual clip this year, he’s been much better since joining the Astros and is in a dream spot on Monday.
Seattle ranks second-worst in the game in strikeouts at 25.7% this season and seven is a very attainable number for the reigning AL Cy Young winner. Verlander's racked up seven strikeouts in three of his last six outings and, more importantly, he’s gone six or more innings in each of his last four. He should be on the hill long enough to clear this number.
Then, I’m going to attack Castillo with one of the best fastball hitters on the Astros in Jeremy Pena. Not only does he rank third among Astros regulars in run value against the pitch, he’s also managed four hits in nine career at-bats against Castillo. This is a very solid price even though it makes sense given his spot in the order.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Astros vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This pitching matchup should be one to watch. Even though Castillo matches up with the Astros worse than Verlander against the Mariners, I still don’t necessarily think that this is a game that gets away from the right-hander.
Castillo did allow five runs to the contact-happy Mets a few starts ago, but he’s been absolute nails since then with just four earned runs across his last three games. He’s also managed eight strikeouts in each of those outings and just 12 hits in 19 innings.
In terms of the action report, DraftKings has taken 64% of the bets on the Over but a larger 48% of the handle on the Under. That makes that side the sharp one, and it’s the one I’d lean towards. 58% of the bets but just 47% of the handle is on the Astros.
Trend to know
The Houston Astros have hit the moneyline in 46 of their last 73 away games (+14.40 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners
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Astros vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Monday, September 25, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T SportsNet Southwest, ROOT Northwest |
Starting pitchers
Justin Verlander (11-8, 3.44 ERA): The veteran righty has watched his ERA balloon to 3.44 with a crummy month of September. In four starts, he’s allowed 15 earned runs in 26 innings with seven home runs.
Luis Castillo (14-7, 3.06 ERA): Castillo has yet to have a truly dominant month, perhaps on account of his walk issues. Here in September, he’s pitched to a respectable 3.38 ERA but has issued 12 free passes in 24 innings pitched.
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