Yankees and Brewers Favored in MLB Divisional Round at Prediction Markets

Prediction market traders are setting expectations for the MLB playoffs, with three of four divisional series matchups now confirmed.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are still heavy favorites to win their third straight World Series, despite the Milwaukee Brewers holding the first seed in the National League.

Key Takeaways

• The Brewers are the largest favorites in the divisional round at the time of writing.
• The Dodgers are still huge favorites to win the World Series.
• Prediction markets showed significant support for the Yankees over the last 48 hours.

The road to the World Series is almost entirely confirmed. The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will play their series-deciding rubber match on Thursday, and the winner will advance to face the Dodgers. Kalshi and Polymarket have both teams at about a 50% chance to win the decisive Game 3 on Thursday.

The American and National League Divisional Series (ALDS/NLDS) will begin on Saturday. The Cleveland Guardians will face the Chicago White Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays will battle the New York Yankees, and the Brewers will face off against the San Diego Padres.

Of the three known series matchups, the Brewers are the largest favorite. Polymarket and Kalshi traders both believe they have a 64% chance to take down the Padres, against whom they went 2-4 during the regular season.

Users at both platforms also believe the Guardians have a 58% chance to advance to the American League Championship Series (ALCS) by beating the White Sox. But just like the Brewers, they lost their head-to-head matchups during the regular season, 6-7.

Polymarket also has the Yankees (51%) favored to beat the Rays, despite only being the fourth seed and losing the regular-season series, 6-7. Kalshi has the Pinstripers at 58%. 

That means that the three series favorites all failed to win more games than they lost against their divisional opponents.

MLB playoff movement 

Two of three Wild Card series winners were favorites: the Yankees over the Boston Red Sox and the Padres over the Chicago Cubs.

The White Sox taking down the Astros was the lone upset at the time of writing. The Braves were expected to beat the Phillies, although that series is nothing more than a coin flip, according to current prediction market probabilities.

Looking ahead, the Dodgers are still sizable favorites to win the World Series — but while the Brewers were the obvious top challenger just 48 hours ago, that picture has changed significantly.

Kalshi and Polymarket listed the Brewers at 17% and 16%, respectively, as of Tuesday morning. The Yankees were at 9% and behind the Rays on both platforms.

Beating the Red Sox sent the Yankees flying up the board into second place for both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi has the Yankees at 17% and the Brewers down to 16%, while Polymarket lists both teams at 17%. There’s a sizable drop-off between the top three and the fourth-place team, which is the Padres at 11% at both platforms.

World Series trades that have been processed between the two platforms has reached $147.6 million. That’s over $7 million more than the total trading volume two days ago, which is indicative of how the markets were able to adjust so quickly.

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MLB playoff prediction markets

Prediction markets have published contracts for Game 1s for the three known series in the ALDS and NLDS. Probabilities at the time of writing are as follows:

Kalshi

• Brewers (67%) vs. Padres (34%)

• Guardians (59%) vs. White Sox (42%)

• Yankees (46%) vs. Rays (56%)

Polymarket

• Brewers (67%) vs. Padres (34%)

• Guardians (58%) vs. White Sox (43%)

• Yankees (45%) vs. Rays (55%)

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