Pop quiz: The Denver Broncos play the Kansas City Chiefs tonight on Monday Night Football. Without peeking, what do you think the spread, total, and moneyline should be? Oh, and what are fair odds for a J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown?
If you think you know, do you really? Are you sure enough to risk five, six, or seven figures on it? Because if you’re a bookmaker or market maker on a federally regulated exchange, that could be what’s at stake: One bad line and suddenly bettors and traders are flinging cash at it, trying to take you for everything you’ve got.
- Pinnacle says its sports pricing heavily influences prediction markets because of its reputation for sharp, reliable odds.
- The sportsbook claims some entities are using or reselling its data without permission, and sometimes falsely implying official partnerships.
- Pinnacle plans to crack down on unauthorized data use and may pursue legal action to protect its reputation and business.
While prediction markets remain relatively new, the pricing problem is evergreen. State-regulated sportsbooks have been trying to calibrate the perfect odds for years. Luckily, there have long been a few places where unsure oddsmakers and, now, prediction market makers could turn for a trustworthy opinion.
One such stop has been Pinnacle, a mostly offshore online sportsbook with higher limits and a “winners welcome” mentality that creates some pretty sharp lines. And, as prediction markets have boomed - last weekend was the busiest in the history of the CFTC-regulated exchanges - Pinnacle says it has received a lot of requests for data partnerships.
“Our best-in-class sports pricing offers a unique advantage for these emerging sports trading desks, and we’re excited for the opportunity to work with new clients in this rapidly growing environment,” Pinny says.
However, you gotta ask first. Pinnacle also said last week it was seeing an increase in "unauthorized use" of its data, in ways that create "market confusion, operational disruption, and, in some cases, direct commercial damage."
A statement on prediction markets & API access from Pinnacle: pic.twitter.com/WSNwthxibR
— Pinnacle (@Pinnacle) September 9, 2026
So Pinnacle read the riot act on X: There are "no authorized resellers of Pinnacle data," just Pinnacle, which plans to step up its efforts to crack down on unauthorized reselling of its data.
"A fast and reliable data source is paramount for risk management and market making, and the only way to ensure you receive a Pinnacle feed commensurate with the speed of the market is to get it directly from Pinnacle," the bookmaker said.
Intended or not, it was an interesting insight into prediction markets, which are ostensibly “peer-to-peer” exchanges that bring buyers and sellers of event contracts together for trading.
Who you’re trading against on a football game, though, could range from somebody just like you to experienced teams at DraftKings and FanDuel. Market makers like that are part of the prediction market ecosystem, but it takes some skill to survive and thrive in that line of business. Having good data to make decisions is critical.
"We are ... seeing meaningful traction on the market making side as we leverage our industry-leading Sportsbook modeling and risk management capabilities," DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told shareholders in an August letter. "We are live on three exchanges and are consistently making markets on both singles and combos at a profit."
The blue-and-orange benchmark
If you can't use the in-house trading teams at DraftKings or FanDuel, and you still want to make markets, you may need to find other sources of help. As a result, your counterparty on a prediction market trade could also be a market maker that relies on Pinnacle's pricing data (or the odds of similarly respected shops, such as Betcris and Circa). And without it, your counterparty may not feel as confident about taking the other side of your trade. First things first: what’s Pinny dealing?
Pinnacle is prepared to help, but it is also trying to keep its reputation intact. That is why it felt it necessary to take to X, to alert the market and unwitting consumers about unauthorized Pinnacle data.
"Given Pinnacle’s market-making pedigree in sports, we possess the logical benchmark for many prediction market actors to build their pricing framework," the company told Covers in a statement. "For that reason, we wanted to reinforce that the only place to receive the reliable data feed required for this kind of risk management is directly from Pinnacle."
It was perhaps a long time coming.
As the prediction market business continues to grow, Pinnacle says it has been hit with "an influx" of complaints from data users unhappy with the quality of feeds they receive from resellers. The resellers can even claim to be official Pinnacle partners, leaving Pinnacle to answer questions when the product isn't as good as advertised.
Pinnacle also believes its data is having a real impact on the prices traders are getting through their prediction market of choice.
"The vast majority of prediction market volume is on sports contracts, which creates a heightened awareness of our domain expertise and at-scale pricing," the company said. "To maintain that expertise, we actively monitor the impact of Pinnacle pricing on all markets. Based on what we see, and our discussions with a number of market makers, it is clear that prediction market sports event contracts are highly reliant on our pricing."
SCOOP: FanDuel and other sports betting operators are market making on Kalshi.
— Nick Devor (@nickdevor_) September 11, 2026
In its Q1 earnings report, FanDuel-parent Flutter announced that it was market making "on a major, third-party prediction market platform.”
That platform is Kalshi, according to a person familiar… https://t.co/6au2vQyNxd
Again, though, Pinnacle is also seeing its name and data thrown around without permission. The drive for good data that makes Pinnacle a natural place to turn for PM market making help “creates perverse incentives for third-party actors looking to profit from our pricing,” the company says.
The quality of what resellers offer could be worse, which may upset buyers and potentially damage Pinnacle's reputation. Saying “I’m with Pinnacle” when you’re not could create distrust.
“In specific cases, resellers have used our brand name or logos to promote their products,” Pinnacle said. “We have even seen publicly listed companies whose sales departments have consciously deceived their customers by claiming they have an official relationship with Pinnacle.”
So bad actors and their unsuspecting clientele have been warned. What comes next depends on what Pinnacle sees, but it could involve a lawyer or two.
"Pinnacle’s technical infrastructure is critical to the success of our business, and with the emergence of prediction markets we will continue to make efforts to protect our IP and prevent unauthorized data scraping wherever possible to ensure that the product customers receive is commensurate with Pinnacle’s high standards," the company said. "In the case of persistent, unwanted theft, we will consider legal action to protect ourselves from further reputational and commercial damage."
