The Ohio State Buckeyes are still the most likely team to win the College Football Playoff, according to Vegas oddsmakers.
BetMGM kept Ohio State atop its odds board and ahead of second-place Texas, even after they blew a 20-point lead in Austin two weekends ago.
Key Takeaways
- Ohio State never fell below Texas at any point, despite the loss.
- Miami fell behind Georgia and Notre Dame despite starting 3-0.
- Oregon is down to +2,500 after beginning the year at +700, tied for the second-best value on the board.
| Team | Opening | Last Week | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +600 | +500 | +550 |
| Texas | +700 | +600 | +600 |
| Notre Dame | +700 | +700 | +650 |
| Georgia | +900 | +700 | +700 |
| Miami (FL) | +2,000 | +700 | +800 |
| Indiana | +800 | +900 | +900 |
| LSU | +1,500 | +1,200 | +1,500 |
| Ole Miss | +4,000 | +2,500 | +1,700 |
| Oregon | +700 | +2,000 | +2,500 |
| Texas Tech | +1,500 | +2,200 | +2,500 |
| Alabama | +1,500 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| USC | +4,000 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| Texas A&M | +1,500 | +2,500 | +4,000 |
| Oklahoma | +3,000 | +4,000 | +4,000 |
| Tennessee | +5,000 | +5,000 | +4,000 |
Ohio State opened as the college football National Championship odds leader back in January, according to SportsOddsHistory. They still find themselves in the top spot, although they ceded ground to Texas.
BetMGM’s latest update has the Buckeyes (+550) just ahead of the Longhorns (+600) after both teams beat up on lesser opponents over the weekend. Both have odds slightly shorter than they did at the beginning of the season.
Ask anyone who’s anyone and they’ll tell you that Ohio State 5-star freshman WR Chris Henry Jr. is HIM.
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) September 19, 2026
And this is exactly why right here. Keep in mind Henry stands 6-5, 210 pounds! 😤 pic.twitter.com/5bDRCs2PCV https://t.co/9OHsjGoQOx
Notre Dame is just off the leaders’ pace with +650 national title odds, following a 3-0 start to the season. Georgia is also close behind at +700, although they did not shorten after annihilating Arkansas 45-17 in their conference opener.
Georgia was doing individual drills during a timeout in the fourth quarter. Arkansas was little more than a scrimmage for the Bulldogs. pic.twitter.com/W9gk2zIKWd
— Michael Main (@MichaelMain__) September 19, 2026
The story picks up when it arrives at Miami, which fell in the odds despite also securing a third win without a loss. Their 33-20 victory — during which Heisman candidate quarterback Darian Mensah set an ACC record by starting with 24 consecutive completions — sent them falling from +700 to +800.
Darian Mensah just made ACC history while keeping No. 5 Miami unbeaten
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 19, 2026
30/34, 220 PYDS, 3 PTD, 0 INT vs. Wake Forest
He completed his first 24 passes, setting ACC records for consecutive completions and consecutive completions to start a game. https://t.co/Kea9kaKGCt pic.twitter.com/rNbYkSH3JL
Reigning national champion Indiana (+900) is the sixth team with odds shorter than +1,000. That is a large group of contenders and suggests that the race is still fairly open between the top schools, which have a combined 76.6% implied chance of winning the National Championship. That means that roughly three times out of four, the next kings of college football should come from that group of six.
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Teams on the decline
LSU is still the top challenger to the leaders, despite losing to Ole Miss in a grudge match over the weekend. Its +1,500 odds are longer than the +1,200 it had one week ago and represent a 1.4% loss in likelihood of winning the College Football Playoff.
Fittingly, Ole Miss is next in line. After opening at +4,000 odds and closing to +2,500 last week, the Rebels are now +1,700 — enough for eighth on the odds board. Their quarterback, Trinidad Chambliss, also leaped into the Heisman odds lead after an excellent showing against LSU.
TRINIDAD CHAMBLISS TOOK OVER OXFORD WHEN OLE MISS NEEDED HIM MOST
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 20, 2026
33/48, 363 PYDS, 2 PTD, 1 RUTD, 1 INT VS. NO. 7 LSU
CHAMBLISS HANDED HIS FORMER COACH A LOSS IN KIFFIN’S FIRST TRIP BACK TO OXFORD WITH LSU. https://t.co/v5xtG2Pao9 pic.twitter.com/onYp8uBx1c
Preseason number-two, Oregon, has lengthened from +700 to +2,500, giving them just a 3.9% implied chance of winning the upcoming CFP. That’s tied with Texas Tech and Alabama in the group of second-tier contenders.
Texas A&M has also experienced significant negative movement since the preseason. The Aggies’ +4,000 odds following their loss to Kentucky are behind 12 teams and significantly lower than their +1,500 opening value. Oklahoma and Tennessee are also tied at +4,000 and ahead of the remaining teams, which begin at +6,000.
