Ohio State is still favored to win the College Football Playoff after losing a thriller to Texas in Austin on Saturday.
Texas had tied Ohio State for the odds lead at BetMGM last week, but ceded position even though it beat the top-ranked Buckeyes.
Key Takeaways
- There’s a near one-third chance that Texas or Ohio State wins the National Championship.
- Miami has made up the most ground of the top contenders.
- Oregon is down to +2,000 after opening at +700, which was tied for second on the board.
| Team | Opening | Last Week | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +600 | +600 | +500 |
| Texas | +700 | +600 | +600 |
| Notre Dame | +700 | +650 | +700 |
| Miami (FL) | +2,000 | +900 | +700 |
| Georgia | +900 | +900 | +700 |
| Indiana | +800 | +800 | +900 |
| LSU | +1,500 | +1,600 | +1,200 |
| Oregon | +700 | +1,000 | +2,000 |
| Texas Tech | +1,500 | +2,200 | +2,200 |
| Texas A&M | +1,500 | +1,500 | +2,500 |
| Alabama | +1,500 | +1,600 | +2,500 |
| Ole Miss | +4,000 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| USC | +4,000 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| Oklahoma | +3,000 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
| Tennessee | +5,000 | +4,000 | +5,000 |
"Ohio State might have choked late against Texas but they are still the favorites to win the National Championship. Bettors aren't worried either. The Buckeyes are the most bet team to win the title since their collapse on Saturday and Jeremiah Smith is the most bet player to win the Heisman in that time." - Seamus Magee, Trading Manager, BetMGM
Ohio State opened as the National Championship favorite back in January, according to SportsOddsHistory. The Buckeyes were knotted with Texas at +600 each last week, but despite suffering a 24-23 road loss, they shortened to +500 at BetMGM Sportsbook. That translates to a 16.7% implied probability of winning the title.
Texas remained at +600 after the win, which saw them rally from a 23-3 deficit with a 21-point fourth quarter. Six of their remaining 10 games will take place against ranked opponents, giving them plenty of opportunities to move up the National Championship odds board.
Notre Dame, Miami and Georgia are stuck in a three-way tie for third place at +700 odds. All three are 2-0 with blowouts in each game.
So far, Notre Dame beat Wisconsin and Rice; Miami beat Stanford and Florida A&M; and Georgia beat Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. Miami’s movement is the most significant, as they shortened from +2,000 at opening to their current value.
Reigning national champion Indiana (+900) is the final team with odds shorter than +1,000. They trounced North Texas and Howard, and quarterback Josh Hoover has eight touchdown passes in only 28 attempts.
If there’s one team still on the rise, it's LSU. The Tigers are down from +1,500 at opening to +1,200 after dismantling Clemson in the opener and beating Louisiana Tech over the weekend. Quarterback Sam Leavitt suffered in Heisman odds after throwing three interceptions, but the Tigers’ suffocating defense only allowed 140 total yards of offense.
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Teams on the decline
As several teams made a charge in college football title odds over the weekend, several also fell down the board. Oregon led all teams under that classification.
The sixth-ranked team in the country became the first top-10 team in college football history to allow an opponent to snap a 10-plus-game losing streak by falling to Oklahoma State on the road, 39-31. Quarterback Dante Moore completed less than 50% of his passes and was held to 191 yards and two touchdowns, while OSU QB Drew Mestemaker had 317 yards passing, 109 yards rushing, three total touchdowns, and two interceptions.
The weekend wasn’t kind to the Lone Star State. In addition to Texas’ lack of improvement after beating Ohio State, both Texas Tech and Texas A&M lost ground in the title race after starting 2-0. Texas Tech is down from +1,500 at opening to +2,200, and Texas A&M moved from +1,500 to +2,500.
Alabama also dropped from +1,500 at opening and +1,600 last week to +2,500. The Crimson Tide trailed Kentucky at halftime of their SEC matchup, but managed to win, 45-17.
Pivotal matchups
There might not be another matchup that outranks last weekend’s Ohio State-Texas showdown in importance for the National Championship odds picture, but there are several high-priority matchups approaching this week.
No. 22 Houston will face No. 13 Texas Tech in Lubbock on Friday evening. Kentucky will visit Texas A&M after thoroughly outplaying Alabama for one half of football last weekend. And in the game that is sure to capture a massive audience, Lane Kiffin will make his return to Oxford as No. 7 LSU takes on No. 8 Ole Miss.
