Kalshi reached $3 billion in notional volume in a single day for the first time on Saturday as part of the nearly $6 billion traded over the weekend.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi’s Sunday volume was up nearly 15% compared to the same day last week.
- Colts-Chiefs produced the highest notional volume of Week 2 so far.
- LSU-Ole Miss led all college football trading in Week 3.
According to Aldrin Research, $4.22 billion was traded on Sunday by nine of the 11 reporting prediction market operators, a 22% rise compared to the same day last week when 10 exchanges released volume figures.
Kalshi accounted for $3.01 billion in notional volume during college football’s Week 3 on Saturday, 75% of all reported trading. Kalshi reached $2.82 billion, the second all-time high and a 14.6% week-over-week increase.
The popular exchange’s taker volume, which trades against market liquidity, surpassed $648 million on both weekend days.
Polymarket, split into U.S. and International divisions by Aldrin, made up more than 15% of Sunday’s notional volume, which includes all trading activity and full combo payouts.
Sports accounted for $1.49 billion of all notional volume on Sunday, and another $1.35 billion on Saturday. Combos, which include multi-leg sports trades, generated $2.3 billion in Saturday’s volume and $2.28 billion on Sunday.
Over $672 million was traded on the NFL between Saturday and Sunday, an 8% increase from Week 1 to Week 2.
Primetime spikes trading
The NFL reigned supreme on Sunday, accounting for $647 million of game trading, the most of any league over the weekend and a 7.6% week-over-week increase.
The Sunday night showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs sparked an impressive $166.6-million volume, the most of any league’s game over the weekend and nearly $50 million more than all of the MLB slate. However, Sunday’s primetime game was down 22% from Week 1’s Cowboys-Giants.
Kalshi accounted for 84.6% of the reported volume on that game and owned a 61% share of all NFL trading.
Eagles-Titans was the second-most traded game with $47.3 million in volume, followed by Vikings-Bears ($43.6 million), Packers-Jets ($43.1 million), and Commanders-Cowboys ($42.2 million).
Raiders-Chargers and Jaguars-Broncos were the only two other games to go over $30 million in volume as the NFL accounted for 14 of the top 15 most-traded single games on Sunday.
Kiffin hype
College football games, not including combos, produced a notional volume of $609.4 million on Saturday, a 12.4% week-over-week increase. Including Friday’s slate, the sport surpassed $740 million in volume.
LSU coach Lane Kiffin’s return to Ole Miss produced $81.4 million in volume, the most of any single college football game in Week 3. Houston-Texas Tech, which played on Friday night, was second with $76 million, followed by Miami-Wake Forest’s $65 million on the same day.
Clemson’s riveting comeback over North Carolina generated Saturday’s second-highest trading volume of $42.9 million, while SMU-Louisville rounded out the top five for the weekend with $37.8 million
Over $34 million was traded on the UFC bout between Josh Van and Alexandre Pantoja, more than any college football game not yet mentioned.
MLB produced $139.2 million in Saturday trading, second behind college football but down about $20 million from the same day last week.
Other notable exchanges
Polymarket US accounted for $592 million in Sunday trading, and its $77.6 million in NFL volume was up 17.5% compared to the previous Sunday, while the operator nearly reached $300 million in combo trades.
DraftKings Predictions experienced a significant 31% week-over-week volume increase on Sunday, reaching an all-time single-day high of $183.5 million for the operator and 4.3% of the day’s volume. The platform didn’t reach $100 million on Saturday.
Crypto.com accounted for 4.2% of all trading on Sunday, while sports-only Novig was sixth with a volume of $88.6 million. Robinhood’s $67.5 million was significantly ahead of Underdog ($48 million) and ProphetX ($19.3 million) on Sunday.
