There’s no other way to slice it, really: The headlines were less than ideal this weekend for both the state-regulated sports betting industry and the federally regulated prediction market business.
They were also not ideal in a way that makes it more likely that sports betting and prediction markets will be on the to-do list for regulators and policymakers across the U.S. and Canada.
- Negative headlines about sportsbooks and prediction markets could become fuel for new legislation, regulations, and hearings at both the state and federal levels.
- Prediction markets topped $4 billion in volume Saturday while New York sportsbooks continue to generate strong handle, underscoring the significant demand for both forms of betting.
- Regulators are already weighing new restrictions, with Indiana considering a college player prop ban and Missouri moving against sports event contracts offered by prediction markets.
A headline like “How DraftKings Targets the Gamblers Likeliest to Lose” would attract attention. A headline like “How DraftKings Uses A.I. to Target the Gamblers Likeliest to Lose” may attract attention from people worried about gambling, as well as people worried about data centers, labor trends, and a Terminator-like worst-case scenario for the future of humanity.
"... A Florida attorney whose firm was involved in an earlier win in court against Meta," is probably not someone to be trifled with, either.
We can argue about the reporting, the tone, the context, the differences between prediction marketing and sports betting, what regulated platforms offer in the ways of responsible gambling and/or trading tools, and whether money wagered should be as worrisome as money actually lost.
What you really need to know is that these headlines may be going in a folder somewhere. They could be filed away for future reference and to explain why a bill is being introduced, a regulation promulgated, or a hearing held. While their buzz may wane over the coming weeks or months, they just might be resurrected and referenced again.
And maybe sooner than you think.
A 29-year-old pest control salesman says he bets on sports every day, wagering between $80,000 and $120,000 a year — as much as or more than his $97,000 salary.
— CBS Sunday Morning 🌞 (@CBSSunday) September 20, 2026
He tells @JimAxelrod he sometimes puts an entire paycheck on his bets. https://t.co/UqHBnA4zHT pic.twitter.com/DRtXpvAWfA
There are elections in November. Polling and prediction markets suggest there could be a new party in power in Congress. A new, Democrat-controlled D.C. may decide it's time to revisit this whole “prediction market” thing. Could they actually do anything? I’m not sure, but I’m sure a few folks could take a run at it, and may be better positioned to do so next January than this September.
Some state legislatures have already put prediction markets on the menu. Others could join the fray next year, such as Texas, where lawmakers last week began to wrap their heads around the subject.
For state-regulated sportsbooks, they’re already within range of reform. Because it has happened before, with new rules and new tax rates. Now, if you hold a state gaming license, the state gambling regulators could come knocking soon with some AI-related inquiries. Will anything actually happen? Again, no idea. But people may propose, nonetheless.
About a year ago I had a call with a journalist at a major publication, who had obtained a public figure’s betting records. The man had wagered ten times his (publicly available) salary in the past year, and the journalist was planning an expose. They called me to learn about… https://t.co/bnVXVEjCs0
— Isaac (@roundrobin42) September 20, 2026
Where the rubber meets the road on all of this is if bettors start to notice stuff they like to bet (or trade!) go away, or the ways in which they like to bet (or trade!) dry up. And make no mistake: people like to bet (and trade!). There’s a baseline demand for sports betting and event contract trading.
But people don’t get appointed to gaming commissions and elected to legislatures not to react to things that concern at least some of their constituencies. The headlines this past weekend could rise to that level.
ICYMI:
- Texas Lawmakers Hear Prediction Market Arguments Ahead of 2027 Gambling Debate
- Steveson Loss Biggest UFC Upset in DraftKings History
- Missouri AG Moves to Halt Sports Event Contracts From 6 Prediction Markets
- Even in the Era of Prediction Markets, Fantasy Sports Still Matter
- First Native American Tribe Enters Prediction Markets Through Kalshi
- Hard Rock Bet’s Florida Motor-Racing Games Drive Playtech’s Revenue Surge
- Ohio iGaming Bill Would Redirect Online Promotions to Retail Casinos
If you want a friend, get an underdog
So the mainstream media isn’t exactly thanking online sportsbooks and prediction markets for their service (in capturing online gambling activity via state- or federally regulated channels). As Don Draper once said: that's what the money is for.
And there was a lot of money flying around this past weekend.
CFTC-regulated prediction markets (as well as Polymarket’s international platform) saw more than $4 billion in volume on Saturday, more than $764.5 million of which was "taker" volume, according to Aldrin Research.
On Sunday, notional volume topped $4.2 billion and taker volume $787.5 million.
The taker data is particularly interesting because that is probably as near you get to an apples-to-apples comparison with sportsbook handle. If I buy a contract for five cents, it’s still a dollar in notional volume, because someone took the other side. A sportsbook, though, would treat that five cents of taker volume as five cents of handle.
We don’t have taker volume for every prediction market platform. Moreover, state sports betting figures aren’t being streamed in real-time for us, so we don’t know exactly how they’re faring on a daily basis.
However, the New York State Gaming Commission reported that mobile sports wagering handle for the week ended Sept. 13 was approximately $594.6 million, which is a bit more than the $533.8 million bet in the week that ended Sept. 14, 2025. So, safe bet that state-regulated sportsbooks are doing all right.
Oh, and yesterday's NFL slate saw nine Unders and eight underdogs covering. While it's hard to know what that means these days, lower scoring usually translates into fewer anytime touchdowns, at the very least. That's a win for bookmakers and market makers in our SGP-loving times.
According to Citizens analysts, the ways in which people bet football these days makes it tough to handicap how the books are doing: "Diversification of markets and the evolution of bet types make it nearly impossible to figure out how companies are performing on a weekly basis." pic.twitter.com/cKshWhtGbW
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) September 16, 2026
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Other news worth knowing
– While this is kind of in keeping with what I said above, that regulators are gonna regulate, this one’s been in the works for a bit: the Indiana Gaming Commission will meet on Thursday to discuss whether to ban college player prop betting at state-regulated sportsbooks. The Indiana sports betting regulator punted a decision on this back in June, and now we’ll see if commissioners are ready to make the call.
– Losses by the Bucs, Ravens, and Chargers hit survivor pools hard on Sunday. Tampa's delayed defeat to the Browns (fact check: yes, that happened) was enough on its own to nuke a third of the Circa Survivor field.
After a lengthy weather delay in Tampa Bay... the #DawgPound hold of the #Buccaneers and make a big dent in both contests.
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 20, 2026
Bucs ❌
6,061 (35.8%) Survivor Eliminated
14 (28.6%) Grandissimo Eliminated
Ravens ❌
835 (4.9%) Survivor Eliminated
4 (8.2%) Grandissimo Eliminated…
