With less than one week until the 2026 NFL season begins, the league asked prediction market platforms again to nix event contracts that could threaten the integrity of its games.
The NFL previously shared its concerns with certain prediction markets offered by operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Key Takeaways
- The NFL first wrote to prediction operators at the end of March.
- Troublesome markets include those knowable in advance, easily manipulated, subjective, and against the public interest.
- Three sportsbooks recently agreed to partnership deals with the NFL, while prediction operators were held out.
Prediction markets jumped into the national spotlight during the last NFL season. Their unprecedented growth in the time since sets them up for a lucrative trading period once the games get underway next week, starting with a Super Bowl rematch on opening night on Wednesday.
The expected heavy interest has prompted the NFL to take up a passionate interest in preserving its games from outside influence, including that of prediction traders.
“It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges,” read the letter, sent on Thursday from NFL chief compliance officer Sabrina Perel.
The NFL states designated contract markets are required to “defer to the expertise” of professional leagues when it comes to approved and rejected markets.
“CFTC Commissioner (Michael) Selig has asserted that ... 'the leagues are very well positioned to make those calls and so we are going to afford a lot of deference to the league on these types of issues,’” the letter read.
The NFL first wrote to prediction companies near the end of March, according to an ESPN report. Operators have not heeded their warning, leading to the current division between them and the league.
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NFL wants specific prediction markets banned
The NFL's concern surrounding prediction markets center around markets that are easily controlled by one individual, are knowable in advance, or are subjective.
The league included a list of markets it opposed, broken into four different categories. The first group of markets easily manipulated by a single person included:
- Will a kicker miss a field goal
- Will a QB’s first pass be incomplete
- Will a receiver’s first target be incomplete
- Will a running back rush for fewer than X yards on first attempt
- Broadcast mentions
- Fan/celebrity attendance
Inherently objectionable markets that deal with general safety were also included on the NFL’s list.
Examples provided by the NFL included:
- Player injuries, including when a player will next play or if they will play an entire season
- Fan safety
- Player misconduct
General markets related to officiating were also mentioned. These markets can look like:
- Timing, number, or types of penalties
- Officiating actions
- Replay results
- Officiating assignments
The final “knowable in advance” category of markets is closely linked to insider trading. Individuals with sensitive information would be privy to these markets and would therefore have the chance to profit or share valuable information.
- The first play of the game
- Roster/personnel decisions
- Who will be traded and hired/fired
- Pick-by-pick NFL Draft contracts
- Coaching decisions
NFL taking a stand?
The NFL announced in the final week of August that it had agreed to partnership deals with three sportsbook companies: DraftKings, Fanatics and FanDuel. It did not reach an agreement with prediction market companies, and none have partnerships with individual teams.
Committing to the sports betting industry while keeping prediction markets at arm’s length is a significant decision for the most popular league and largest entertainment venture in America. Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig recently agreed to partnership deals with seven total MLB franchises, while the prediction industry is expected to generate more than $36 billion in trades during football season.
At the same time, prediction market news across the country has recently focused on defining the scope of the platforms’ reach. A recent series of pro-state outcomes in federal courts pushed back operators’ authority, which New Jersey officials asked this week to be officially settled by the U.S. Supreme Court.
