South Carolina’s next governor could give sports betting supporters their best chance in years for legalization while leaving casino advocates facing a more difficult political fight.
- Both nominees support regulated online sports betting, with Johnson requiring voter approval and safeguards.
- Wilson pledges to veto casinos, while Johnson would support them if voters approve.
- Republicans are expected to retain legislative control, and prediction markets heavily favor Wilson.
Republican Alan Wilson has broken with some members of his party in public support for regulated online sports betting, though he has maintained the GOP’s long-standing aversion to casinos. Democrat Jermaine Johnson supports regulated online sports betting but also backs brick-and-mortar casinos should they earn voter approval.
The attorney general and state representative are competing on the Nov. 3 ballot to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Henry McMaster. The outgoing governor’s gambling opposition has hung over repeated legislative attempts to authorize sportsbooks and casinos; neither effort has gained much traction despite some bipartisan support.
The election gives gambling supporters reason to revisit those proposals, though neither candidate offers a guarantee of broad expansion. Lawmakers in what is expected to remain a Republican-controlled legislature have repeatedly heard arguments about revenue, consumer protection, and gambling harms without creating a regulated sports betting market or legal casinos. The race also lands as prediction markets track the balance of power in Washington; Covers’ 2026 midterm prediction market odds tracker follows the latest probabilities for control of the House and Senate.
But support from both candidates - and the guaranteed exit of one of the state’s most notable opponents - gives online sports betting legalization a new potential opening.
Johnson puts casino decision before voters
Johnson’s casino commitment is conditional: South Carolinians should have a say, and any expansion would require safeguards to address gambling-related harms.
During the Oct. 6 gubernatorial debate, Johnson said he would support allowing casinos if voters approved a statewide referendum. Wilson indicated he would oppose casinos even with voter support, giving advocates a distinction between the nominees.
Johnson's position leaves room for casino legislation but does not establish which projects or regulatory terms he would support. His published policy platform does not include casino plan specifying locations, licensing requirements, or tax rates. In recent interviews with local media, he reiterated a willingness to legalize and tax online sports betting, as well as prediction markets, contingent on voter approval and strong safeguards.
Those details matter because South Carolina lawmakers have considered distinct approaches to expansion. A 2025 Senate proposal focused on online sports betting, while separate House legislation sought casino development in selected counties.
Johnson’s referendum preference would add another political step to casino legalization. He could advocate for a public vote but could not place a constitutional amendment on the ballot himself.
For supporters, his position offers a possible route to casinos that the outgoing gubernatorial administration has long opposed. It also leaves lawmakers responsible for designing a measure Johnson and voters would accept.
A Johnson victory would also set up divided government between a Democratic governor and a likely Republican legislature for the first time since 2003. That could complicate negotiations even on proposals with bipartisan support.
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Wilson separates online betting from casinos
Wilson draws a distinction between betting on a phone and building a casino.
Wilson argued in September that online betting already happens and said he did not want to criminalize conduct people undertake on their phones. His position gives sportsbook advocates a potential Republican ally in the governor’s office after years of opposition from McMaster.
That opposition remained a major obstacle during the 2025 legalization push, when sports wagering proposals attracted sponsors but remained stuck in committee. McMaster took office in January 2017, before the 2018 Supreme Court decision that struck down the federal sports wagering ban.
Wilson has offered casino supporters less encouragement. He signed a Palmetto Family Alliance pledge to veto legislation bringing a casino to South Carolina and cited concerns raised by law enforcement about crime and illicit activity. He described online activity as a separate issue.
His position was reinforced during the October debate when he said he'd oppose casinos even if voters support them. A Wilson victory could therefore improve the prospects for a narrower sportsbook bill, though agreement with lawmakers would still be necessary.
That split has precedents within the Republican caucus. During this year’s sports betting hearing, state Sen. Josh Kimbrell supported regulation while distancing himself from casino expansion.
Wilson has not supplied a detailed campaign framework resolving sportsbook licensing, tax rates, or enforcement. Support for regulation would begin the negotiation rather than settle the terms that lawmakers have debated in previous sessions.
Republicans likely to hold Legislature
Republicans are expected to retain control of the Legislature. All 124 House seats are up for election this year. The full Senate was elected in 2024 for four-year terms, with its next regular elections in 2028. Republicans hold nearly three-quarters of its seats, leaving gambling supporters dependent on Republican votes regardless of the governor’s race.
The recent record shows why the governor’s position is only part of the equation. In April 2025, a House subcommittee heard competing arguments on sportsbooks and casinos without voting. Religious organizations opposed sports betting, while industry representatives argued regulation could bring oversight and tax revenue.
The separate casino proposal was returned to the House Ways and Means Committee in January 2026. The Senate’s standalone online sports betting bill likewise failed to become law.
South Carolina gambling legislation timeline
| 2026 | A Senate subcommittee heard renewed arguments over online sports betting but took no vote. Supporters stressed existing betting activity, while opponents raised addiction and financial concerns. |
| 2025 | A House subcommittee reviewed sports betting and casino proposals, including H3625 and H4176, without voting at the hearing. |
| 2024 | Lawmakers prefiled H3625, a bipartisan online sports betting proposal with a 12.5% revenue tax, for the upcoming two-year session. |
| 2023 | Rep. Chris Murphy’s H3749 proposed online sports betting with up to eight operators and a 10% revenue tax, but failed to become law. |
These efforts also demonstrate why gambling expansion doesn't have to move as one package, a potential boost for legalization. Lawmakers could revisit online wagering separately from casino development, a distinction especially consequential if Wilson wins.
A referendum would still require legislative action. Under South Carolina’s constitutional amendment process, two-thirds of the elected membership of each chamber must approve a proposed amendment, followed by a majority of voters voting on the question and ratification by the next General Assembly.
Ordinary legislation follows a separate process. A governor's veto can be overridden by a two-thirds vote in each chamber, making the governor's position consequential even when a proposal has legislative support.
Prediction markets give Wilson a commanding edge
Prediction markets strongly favor Wilson, although limited trading volume warrants caution when interpreting the prices. His support for online sports betting alongside opposition to casinos could have different implications for the two legalization efforts. For a broader look at how market prices compare with conventional election data, see Covers’ analysis of polls vs. prediction markets in the 2026 midterms.
As of Monday afternoon, Kalshi displayed a 96.1% probability of a Republican victory compared to 3.9% for the Democrat. Polymarket priced Wilson at 95% and Johnson at 5%. Recent independently verified, nonpartisan public polling is limited.
For South Carolina gambling supporters, a likely Wilson victory offers a potential opening for sportsbooks while leaving casinos facing a veto threat. Johnson presents a possible path to voter-approved casinos, but his support would still require agreement with a likely Republican legislature.
