Prediction Markets Like Cowboys to Win Dire NFC East

Grant Mitchell - News Editor
Grant Mitchell • News Editor 5+ years betting experience
Updated: Oct 19, 2026 , 12:35 PM ET • 4 min read

The Dallas Cowboys are currently third in the NFC East but are the favorites to win the division.

Photo By - Reuters Connect.

The NFC East is on the cusp of going down in NFL infamy as a division that seemingly no team wants to win, leading to a great deal of uncertainty in prediction markets.

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Key Takeaways
  • The NFC East is one loss away from setting an NFL record for the worst two-week stretch in league history.
  • Despite leading the division, the Giants are second in likelihood of winning it.
  • Jalen Hurts’ blood clot significantly lowered the Eagles’ chances of winning the NFC East title.

The Cowboys are favored to win the division despite sitting third in the table and losing in primetime on Sunday Night Football.

Every division winner either receives a first-round bye or hosts a Wild Card game. But in a league that had three teams in the same division finish 12-5 just last year, the NFC East looks incapable of producing a winning football team.

The only team above .500 is a New York Giants squad that was fortunate to escape with a tie against the Washington Commanders last week and fell to the 1-4 New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 2-4 and riding a four-game losing streak; the Cowboys are also 2-4 and seem to get worse with every passing week; and the Commanders’ 1-3-1 campaign was headlined by an utter failure in last week’s overtime matchup with the Giants, during which they let the clock expire despite being within field goal range.

The division is on the verge of becoming the first since the NFL merger in 1970 to fail to win a single game in a two-week stretch during which every team played two games. That’s despite two of the teams, the Commanders and Giants, playing each other in the same week.

All hopes of ducking the record books rest on the Commanders, who are heavy underdogs on the road against the undefeated San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

Kalshi’s prediction markets list the Cowboys (40%) as the favorite to win the division crown, despite their obvious struggles. The Giants (25%) are second, followed by the Eagles (18%) and the Commanders (15%).

Polymarket’s users see the division similarly. The Cowboys (43%) lead the four-team group, ahead of the Giants (23%), Eagles (20%) and Commanders (12%).

What’s the outlook?

Despite a poor start to the year, many believed that the Eagles were going to remedy their issues and defend their back-to-back divisional crowns. Those beliefs changed in the middle of last week when it was revealed that quarterback Jalen Hurts had a blood clot that would cause him to miss an undetermined amount of time.

Initial reports claimed that Hurts would not be placed on injured reserve and would not be required to miss a minimum of four games. Those claims were amended later in the week, and on Monday Hurts was ruled out for the remainder of the season due to deep vein thrombosis and bilateral pulmonary emboli — otherwise known as having multiple blood clots in his lungs. 

News of Hurts’ condition caused the Eagles to plummet from having a 32% to a 21% chance of winning the division at Kalshi before their weekend loss to the Carolina Panthers. Polymarket traders dropped them from 34% to 25%. 

Although the Giants lost to the Saints on Sunday, their likelihood of winning the division barely changed. That was aided by the Cowboys dropping a dud in their 23-13 loss to the Green Bay Packers later in the evening, although there’s an intriguing situation unfolding closer to home.

The Giants lost quarterback Jaxson Dart to a season-ending knee injury in the second week of the season. Backup Jameis Winston handled the duties in the time immediately after all the way until the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game, when newly-acquired backup J.J. McCarthy was given mop-up duty.

McCarthy, a first-round pick in 2024, threw for 243 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in just over 11 minutes of the fourth quarter. The Giants scored 17 unanswered points and nearly closed a 34-10 deficit behind McCarthy’s efforts, which will presumably give him the title of starter in at least next weekend’s matchup with the Houston Texans, who have won their last two games. 

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NFL Playoffs prediction markets

Prediction markets are confirming what most NFL fans already believe: there will only be one NFC East team that qualifies for the playoffs. 

Kalshi’s real-time data shows a near-equivalence between the teams’ chances of winning the division and making the playoffs. The Cowboys have a 43% chance of getting into the bracket, followed by the Giants (31%), the Eagles (24%) and the Commanders (16%).

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Grant Mitchell - News Editor
News Editor

Grant jumped into the sports betting industry as soon as he graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021. His fingerprints can be found all over the sports betting ecosystem, including his constant delivery of breaking industry news. He also specializes in finding the best bets for a variety of sports thanks to his analytical approach to sports and sports betting.

Before joining Covers, Grant worked for a variety of reputable publications, led by Forbes.

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