Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza catapulted into the lead in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds after Kirk Cousins was traded to the Minnesota Vikings on deadline day.
Mendoza, the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, has not started a regular-season game.
- Cousins was supposed to give Mendoza as much time as possible to adapt to the NFL before being asked to start.
- Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards, 41 TDs, and six INTs and ran for seven scores at Indiana last year.
- DraftKings immediately dropped Mendoza from +2,000 to +350 after Cousins was traded.
Mendoza accomplished nearly everything he could’ve during his college career. He led the Indiana Hoosiers to an undefeated season, capped by a national championship win over Miami, and earned the Heisman Trophy, college football’s highest honor.
Despite his success, the Raiders signed Cousins as the Day 1 starter to ease pressure on 23-year-old Mendoza. But after a strong start to the year, Cousins was dealt to the Vikings, whose league-best defense was juxtaposed by its lifeless offense.
The deal all but ensures that Mendoza will play out the remainder of the regular season, assuming health.
DraftKings shortened Mendoza’s Rookie of the Year odds from +2,000 to +350 immediately after the trade was announced in anticipation of his upcoming opportunities on the field.
There’s been even more movement in the time since. DraftKings dropped his line to +300, while Caesars has him as low as +200. FanDuel has the longest odds at +350.
| Players | DraftKings | Caesars | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
Fernando Mendoza  |
+300 | +200 | +350 |
Denzel Boston  |
+500 | +500 | +550 |
Carnell Tate  |
+600 | +500 | +500 |
Jonah Coleman  |
+600 | +400 | +430 |
| KC Concepcion |
+650 | +700 | +650 |
Carson Beck  |
+1,800 | +1,400 | +1,500 |
Notably, a similar situation is unfolding with Arizona Cardinals third-round pick Carson Beck. The Cardinals traded quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the Baltimore Ravens, and Gardner Minshew II was sent to IR because of a torn UCL, leaving Beck in place to start the remainder of the year. His odds range from +1,400 at Caesars to +1,800 at DraftKings.
Shaking up the competition
Based on NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, Mendoza’s stiffest competition is expected to come from Cleveland Browns receiver Denzel Boston. The 39th-overall pick has caught 32 passes for 507 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 15.8 yards per reception, the 10th-highest mark in the league. He leads all rookies in yards and is fourth in receptions.
FanDuel’s opening Rookie of the Year odds favored Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love (+290). Mendoza was second at +320, which gave him a 23.8% implied chance of winning the award.
Love is seemingly out of contention for the award, with odds only as short as +5,000 after he landed on IR with an ankle injury after a Nov. 1 meeting with the Dallas Cowboys. He has 268 yards and one rushing touchdown and has averaged 3.5 yards per carry in seven games.
Most other top contenders, based on opening odds, are also extreme long shots to win the award. Only Tennessee Titans wideout Carnell Tate is where he was when odds were first published, improving slightly from +650 to +500.
Mendoza is no shoo-in for the award, however. He’ll begin his tenure as the Raiders’ starter with consecutive matchups against the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos, and their punishing defenses.
The Seahawks won the most recent Super Bowl on the back of their defensive strength. This year, they rank fourth in points allowed per game and fifth in estimated points added (EPA) per play. The Broncos were in last season’s AFC Championship Game, where they fell to the New England Patriots, 10-7. Denver ranks 10th in average points allowed and 13th in EPA per play.
FanDuel lists the Raiders as 6.5-point underdogs against the Seahawks on Sunday. Mendoza has player prop odds that include:
- O/U 182.5 passing yards (-114/-114)
- O/U 0.5 passing touchdowns (-245/+178)
- O/U 12.5 rushing yards (-114/-114)
- Anytime touchdown scorer (+600)
