Ole Miss’ reunion with Lane Kiffin, the coach who left for LSU before last year’s College Football Playoff, won’t just play out on the field Saturday.
It’ll also shape activity in U.S. sports betting markets.
Key Takeaways
- LSU has taken a large majority of spread handle at multiple sportsbooks.
- Tensions will be high after the way Kiffin left Oxford last year.
- DraftKings’ line movement suggests possible sharp interest in the under.
Multiple sportsbooks are expecting Tigers (-2.5) vs. Rebels to be the most-bet game on the Week 3 college slate, and with about 48 hours until kickoff, the public has found a side.
“We have seen plenty of love come in on the LSU Tigers and expect that to continue up to game time,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel said. “This should be one of the most highly anticipated games of the year, as Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford, so we expect interest throughout the week on this one.”
Fanatics Sportsbook trader Ty Gour told Covers that the rivalry showdown has drawn nearly 50% more handle than any other college game this week.
Both the Rebels and college football fans may have circled this game after Kiffin took the LSU job before the season was over at Ole Miss, adding tension to Kiffin’s return to Oxford.
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One-sided action
Bad blood and a conference rivalry have made this an important game for both teams, which are 2-0 and ranked in the top 10 nationally, but sports bettors don’t think the Rebels will get revenge on their former coach.
Most of the money is on LSU, the slight favorite. Fanatics reported that 85.7% of spread bets have come in on the visiting team.
“The public is loving the Tigers in a shootout,” Gour said.
Feazel said LSU is getting 86% of the spread and moneyline handles while also taking 75% of the tickets at Caesars.
FanDuel reported an 80-20 split on spread bets, with LSU getting a more robust 85% of the money. LSU has drawn an even larger share of moneyline handle at -130, but Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss leads the anytime touchdown market in bets and handle.
Ole Miss was briefly favored at DraftKings after LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt was listed as “doubtful” on the team’s official availability report Wednesday, but reports suggest Ole Miss doesn’t believe their opponent’s QB will miss the contest.
DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers that the line movement was strictly related to the Leavitt news, and with LSU getting 69% of the bets and 89% of the money, he said it’s clear that bettors believe Leavitt will indeed be out there.
Long way to go
However, this was as of Thursday afternoon. With the game set for prime time Saturday, Avello said the money that’s been bet so far is "insignificant" compared to what DraftKings will take by kickoff. The action could become more balanced, especially if uncertainty over Leavitt’s availability grows.
That doesn’t appear to be the case for now, and Avello said this game will likely top college football by handle this weekend. However, he doesn’t believe this contest will reach Ohio State-Texas status from last week, which Avello said was bet like a playoff game.
Because of the line movement and the early-week uncertainty, DraftKings doesn’t have a feel for a professional bettor side for the spread, but Avello sees a potential position on the total.
“If there is any one side that possibly the sharps could be on for a little bit, it may be the under in the game,” Avello said. “We opened 58.5. We're currently at 57.5.”
Fanatics also lowered its total from 58.5 to 57.5 despite reporting that more than 90% of bets were on the over.
