Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama are going blow-for-blow in NBA MVP prediction markets, which have been reduced to a two-horse race in less than 10 games.
- Doncic surged into the lead this week, rising 24 percentage points since the season began at Polymarket.
- Wembanyama reclaimed the lead after a historic performance on Wednesday.
- The third-place MVP contender is more than 20 percentage points off the top two.
Doncic and Wembanyama are nearly inseparable at prediction platforms and have both spent time as the public’s favorite pick.
The NBA season began on Oct. 20. Users at prediction leader Kalshi listed Wembanyama, 22, as the favorite with a 35% likelihood of winning the trophy.
Back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and three-time MVP Nikola Jokic were tied for second, but with only a 15% chance. Doncic, 27, was fourth at 13%.
Polymarket traders also showed a strong preference for Wembanyama. Their opening night probabilities included Wembanyama at 30%, Jokic at 19%, Gilgeous-Alexander at 18%, and Doncic at 14%.
Doncic’s offensive onslaught through the first nine games, during which the Los Angeles Lakers went 7-2, vaulted him to the top of NBA MVP contention. He peaked as high as 35% at Kalshi and 38% at Polymarket and spent Tuesday and Wednesday leading both platforms’ prediction markets.
But unfortunately for Doncic, Wembanyama isn’t going quietly into the night. His latest effort on Wednesday night saw him produce a historic 52 points, 24 rebounds, and eight blocks. The San Antonio Spurs secured their sixth straight victory to improve their record to 6-2.
Kalshi’s prediction markets list Wembanyama at a 35% probability of winning the NBA MVP this season. Doncic is just behind at 34% at the time of writing.
Polymarket users feel nearly the same way. They gave Wembanyama a 36% chance, and Doncic a 35% chance.
Running away with the NBA MVP
Neither Doncic nor Wembanyama have climbed the NBA’s mountaintop as individuals, by winning the MVP, or as teammates, by winning the NBA Finals. Both lost in the Finals and finished as high as third in MVP voting.
No player in basketball is having the same offensive impact as Doncic. His 38.5 points per game not only leads the league, but it is 8.4 points ahead of the next-closest player, Gilgeous-Alexander.
He makes it look easy https://t.co/yqMiqhYh5x
— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) November 5, 2026
Doncic also averaged 8.1 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game while shooting a career-high 43.1% from three. The Lakers are a staggering 21.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor than on the bench.
Conversely, the NBA hasn’t seen a defensive force like Wembanyama in decades. Despite just becoming the league’s first-ever unanimous Defensive Player of the Year winner, his 4.5 blocks and 1.4 steals per game are both career-bests. That’s while he also averaged 29.0 points (fourth) and 12.4 rebounds (fourth) per game.
Wembanyama has an advantage in the race because his Spurs, favored to win the Finals in all prediction markets, are expected to have a stronger regular season. Kalshi and Polymarket both give the Spurs a 23% chance of lifting the Larry O’Brien Trophy, while the Lakers only have a 4% and 3% chance on the respective platforms.
If there’s one player who has a chance of getting into the MVP conversation, it appears to be Gilgeous-Alexander. Kalshi and Polymarket list him at 13% and 12%, respectively. Nobody else is above 7% at either platform.
