LAS VEGAS – What a difference a year makes.
- G2E has shifted from discussing prediction markets to openly confronting them, with multiple panels focused on the concerns they create for the traditional gaming industry.
- The AGA and tribal gaming interests argue prediction markets could undermine state gambling laws, tribal sovereignty, and sports betting-related tax revenue.
- With the fight potentially headed to the Supreme Court, some talk at G2E is about what prediction markets may do if they lose sports-related event contracts.
Around this time in 2025, DraftKings and FanDuel were members of the American Gaming Association (AGA). Their CEOs were also speaking on the main stage of the AGA-presented Global Gaming Expo (G2E), an important gathering for the U.S. gambling industry.
And some of what G2E attendees heard last year concerned prediction markets, the federally regulated exchanges that had begun to dive more deeply in sports.
“The quality of the [online sportsbook] product … is so much stronger,” DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said at one point
"There's a lot of news flow in this space in the moment. I'm sanquine about it." FanDuel parent company Flutter Entertainment CEO Peter Jackson on the ICE $2 billion investment in Polymarket
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) October 7, 2025
This September, both DraftKings and FanDuel are much more invested in prediction markets. They’re no longer AGA members either. While employees of both companies are at G2E, the vibes have shifted a little. Instead of a curiosity or rising concern, prediction markets might be the concern at G2E.
Monday’s keynote highlighted that more aggressive shift, as it was dedicated to a session outlining concerns about prediction markets. Namely, that states and Native American tribes see the exchanges as a threat to the gaming industry, taxable gaming revenue, and tribal sovereignty. While prediction market operators may argue that the "yes" or "no" style of trading sports-related event contracts is something new, many state gambling regulators argue it is just sports betting they haven't authorized.
During the panel, California Nations Indian Gaming Association chairman James Siva said their mission has always been to protect the exclusivity they have over gambling in California. There is no legalized sports betting in California, and the presence of sports-focused prediction markets has been a unifying force.
“If anything, it helped focus us and remind us exactly what our mission is,” Siva said. “Because, oftentimes, California is looked at as kind of the golden goose.”
AGA CEO Bill Miller spoke on the panel as well, arguing that prediction markets “have been absolutely torturing” the Commodity Exchange Act, the federal law under which they operate. The exchanges have used the act in a way that has made it “unrecognizable,” Miller said.
“Their best days are behind them" though, Miller said. “Their house of cards is falling apart.”
So G2E might be the biggest prediction market conference going, at least based on attendance. It's just one that feels more anti-prediction market than pro-prediction market.
At least five discussion panels this week take specific aim at the federally regulated exchanges, from “Prediction Markets, Regulatory Oversight and Integrity” to “Financial (Il)literacy: Risks of Framing Gambling as Investing.”
I stand corrected: first up today at G2E is AGA chief Bill Miller, who says the biggest threat facing legalized gaming is from the forces that want to “copy us” without earning it. I'll let you guess who he means!
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) October 7, 2025
It's (not) strictly business
So this year’s G2E is focused on a lot of issues facing the legal gambling industry. However, confronting and conquering prediction markets is arguably a marquee issue at the marquee U.S. gaming conference.
The reason for that is partly business-related, because some legalized sports betting handle could be flowing instead to prediction markets. Trading has boomed (there was more than $4.5 billion in notional volume on exchanges this past Sunday, according to Aldrin Research), and the exchanges still have enough law on their side to offer sports event contracts for trading in almost every state. Just not Nevada, home of G2E and a bunch of brick-and-mortar casinos.
There are also concerns about the fact that some prediction market traders can be as young as 18, whereas most states require bettors to be 21 or older.
The opposition stems further from the precedent that the exchanges may set if they are allowed to continue on their current course, which is using federal legislation and regulation to preempt the historical state-level status quo for gambling in the United States.
All of the above is why many states have been pushing back, with arguments fired off in lawsuits that they've filed or that have been filed against them by prediction market operators. Around 20 states are litigating the legality of sports event contracts in some way.
“This is obviously a states' rights issue, state consumer protection issue, tribal sovereignty issue, and so that's what the states are actively defending,” said Tres York, vice president of government relations for the AGA, during a panel on Monday.
York sees a pretty strong anti-prediction market coalition that has formed. He pointed to 45 of 50 state attorneys general who are on the record as opposing prediction markets offering sports-related event contracts for trading. York also said that states have won 38 of the 43 state and federal court rulings in the legal battle royale.
Morning all. I’m back in Vegas covering the Global Gaming Expo (@G2Eshows) for @Covers. Prediction markets will be a big focus of this year’s conference, albeit in more of a “bury them, not praise them” kinda way. If you wanna chat, reach out! pic.twitter.com/wtzGr5KFew
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) September 28, 2026
The legal fight over sports event contracts is now on the doorstep of the Supreme Court of the United States. One federal appeals court has sided with prediction markets, while two others have not.
“With this significant of a circuit split, I think the Supreme Court is likely to take it up to resolve it in one way or the other,” York said. “So at this point, the question will just be when.”
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Hat in hand time?
York and the AGA believe that SCOTUS will see through the “charade” of prediction markets.
“While we lost a couple early, we haven't lost in a long time, and the reason is because the arguments have gotten refined,” Miller said.
A question raised on Monday was what happens with prediction markets if they can no longer offer sports event contracts all over the U.S. through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In the event that happens, it’s possible prediction market operators still interested in sports may have to seek licensure from the state gambling regulators that they’re currently fighting in court.
In North Carolina, for example, prediction markets secured some level of legal blessing by being subject to taxation by the state without the need for a state gaming license. Whether similar arrangements can be worked out remains to be seen.
“I'm not so sure that they can or will be successful,” said Shawn Fluharty, a West Virginia lawmaker and the head of government affairs for iGaming supplier Play'n GO. “But I think they are starting to make inroads there because they understand that's the cards that they're going to be dealt.”
-with files from Ryan Butler
