Prediction market trading volume increased only slightly week over week during the latest NFL and college football weekend after a much more significant spike during the previous period.
- Sports and combos accounted for 91% of Sunday’s trading.
- Kalshi generated over $3 billion in volume on both Saturday and Sunday.
- Rams-Broncos on Sunday night led all NFL individual game trading in Week 3.
Nine of the 11 reporting trading exchanges generated $4.47 billion in notional volume Sunday during Week 3 of the NFL season, according to Aldrin Research. That number is up 5% compared to Week 2, which saw a 22% increase from Week 1. Saturday’s college football slate helped notional trading rise 2.7% week over week.
Sports and combo volume combined accounted for 86% of Sunday’s trading, and total taker volume of $780.1 million on Sunday was up from $711.9 million on Saturday.
Kalshi, Polymarket shine
Popular prediction market operator Kalshi continued to dominate the trading landscape, accounting for 68% with its $3.04 billion volume on Sunday, a day after generating $3.03 billion. Sunday’s trading increased 8% compared to the same day last week.
It’s just the third time that Kalshi has reached $3 billion in a day. The operator accounted for 54% of sports trading and 77% of combos on Sunday, totaling over $2.7 billion in one day.
Trading for the U.S. division of Polymarket on Sunday spiked an impressive 28.3% and accounted for 17% of all reported volume, which was up from last week’s 14%.
Novig and CME Group had yet to release figures at the time of publication. Neither of those operators accounted for more than 5% of last weekend’s volume.
A new high mark
The NFL dominated Sunday’s most-traded sports contests, and volume from individual NFL games surpassed $700 million in Week 3, up from $695.4 million the previous Sunday, a new high mark for this season. Combo trades were up 8.6% week over week.
Rams-Broncos continued the three-week streak of the Sunday primetime game receiving the day’s most volume, reaching $152.3 million from the reporting operators. The previous Sunday’s night contest, Colts-Chiefs, surpassed $269 million in volume.
Kalshi accounted for more than 85% of Rams-Broncos volume and 50% or more of eight of the other 13 games.
Ravens-Cowboys from Brazil generated the most volume on Sunday afternoon, reaching $77.4 million, while Seahawks-Commanders was third largest at $64.2 million. Chargers-Bills and Chiefs-Dolphins also surpassed $50 million each in trades.
Spread across the college slate
Unlike last week, no single NCAA game reached $100 million in trades, but the sport’s game volume rose 14.4% week over week. Saturday’s combo plays, which could include all sports and even NFL games on Sunday, increased from $2.30 billion on Sept. 19 to $2.51 billion on Sept. 26.
Ole Miss-Florida led all of Saturday’s college football games in volume with nearly $87 million traded. Texas-Tennessee wasn’t far behind with a volume of $73.2 million.
The UEFA Nations League match between England and Spain generated $28.4 million in trading volume.
Northwestern-Indiana, which was played on Friday night, drew the second-highest NCAA volume of the weekend with $76.6 million, while Clemson-Cal saw $71.3 million traded in a game that started after 10 p.m. on the East Coast.
