Canadian bettors haven't wavered in their support after last week's draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina and ahead of Thursday's match against Qatar.
Key Takeaways
- A strong majority of money wagered in relevant markets is related to positive Canadian performances.
- Jonathan David to score a goal (+335) is one of the most-bet outcomes.
- Canada is still a heavy favorite to qualify for the knockouts.
More than 80% of pre-match bets on the final result for Canada's World Cup opener against Bosnia-Herzegovina were on the Canada moneyline.
Although the result was disappointing, as the host was about -125 on the moneyline, local bettors are still backing their team ahead of Thursday’s kick-off. BET99 revealed 76% of the money is on Canada to win the match, while 14% is on a draw, and 10% is for a Qatar win.
Without factoring in draw-no-bet, player prop, double-chance, and handicap markets, more than 75% of the money is related to a strong Canadian performance. That would include Canada to go over its 1.5-goal team total.
Unsurprisingly, Canada to win is the most popular betting outcome in the match. “Canada or draw,” part of the double-chance market, is a top addition to parlays despite only being priced at -1,500.
Bettors are also showing support for over 2.5 total match goals (-140) and striker Jonathan David as an anytime goal scorer (+335). David, Canada’s all-time leading scorer, had three shots and one shot on goal but did not find the back of the net against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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Sportsbooks expect large betting interest
FanDuel sportsbook revealed earlier this week that the USMNT's matchup against Paraguay rewrote the company’s record book as one of the most popular matches ever.
BET99 is expecting a similarly strong show of support for Canada, which is one of three North American countries hosting the tournament. Sportsbook manager Cliff Adelman told Covers his company expects the game to “have high betting interest, particularly in-play.”
Adelman did note pre-match bettors may not be as incentivized to wager their money as they normally are since Canada’s pre-match moneyline odds are only -340. To help entice bettors, the sportsbook boosted Les Rouges’ odds to a “best-in-market” -280.
To put that in financial terms, a winning $20 wager at -340 would produce $5.88 in profit. Winning a $20 ticket at -280 odds would pay $7.14. The payout difference is 21.4%.
Canada-Qatar preview and odds outlook
Canada put together a statistically stronger performance than Bosnia and Herzegovina in both teams’ first appearance at the World Cup. The Canadians generated more expected goals (1.23 to 0.96), held more possession (61% to 39%), had more shots on goal (four to three), and completed more passes (310 to 172).
Qatar also secured a 1-1 draw against higher-ranked Switzerland last week, although it was lucky to get the point. It only generated 0.6 expected goals to its opponent’s 3.20 and lost every major statistical battle except for saves made (five to three).
Canada sits at about +150 in World Cup odds to win Group B, only just behind Switzerland. It is still a heavy favorite to qualify for the knockouts as all four teams find themselves level on points.
