The Open Championship returns to Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland this week. It’s the site of Shane Lowry’s impressive win by five strokes back in 2019.
It’s also where Rory McIlroy missed the cut. McIlory says he’s had this even circled on his calendar for a while, but I’m searching the British Open odds for guys more along the lines of Lowry than McIlory and the favorites.
Here are my longshot golf picks for the 2025 Open Championship.
2025 British Open longshot picks
- Hideki Matsuyama (+8500)
- Nick Taylor (+17000)
Picks made on 7-14 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
British Open longshot predictions
Longshot pick to win: Hideki Matsuyama
+8500 at bet365
It’s been a tough season on tour for Hideki Matsuyama. The former Masters champion hasn’t won since the Sentry back in January, which also accounts for his only Top 10 finish of the year.
That said, I think Matsuyama is mispriced here. Royal Portrush demands excellent iron play, and despite a season full of tough results, the 33-year-old is still an elite ball striker.
The Japanese golfer enters The Open Championship ranked 18th in the field in strokes gained approach and 20th in strokes gained tee-to-green.
His game also appears to be on the upswing once again. It started during the final round at the U.S. Open in June, where Matsuyama shot at 68 in terrible conditions. Which, you know, might be helpful in Northern Ireland.
Since then, he’s shot seven of his last nine rounds in the 60s, culminating in a T13 at the Rocket Classic two weeks ago.
We also know Matsuyama can handle the pressure of a major championship after donning the green jacket following his win at Augusta National back in 2021. At +8500, he looks like a great value pick this week.
Best British Open bonuses
New Users
Bet $5, Get $150 Bonus Bets instantly!
Claim Now
See our DraftKings sportsbook review
New Users
Get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,500!
Claim Now with code CVRSBONUS1500
See our BetMGM sportsbook review
New Users
Bet $5, Get $150 Bonus Bets, win or lose!
Claim with code COVERS
See our bet365 sportsbook review
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2025.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Longshot pick to win: Nick Taylor
+17000 at bet365
Nick Taylor has a win in each of the last three seasons, including his national championship in 2023, and he knows something about handling pressure, winning all three on playoff holes.
Taylor, like Matsuyama, is an excellent ball striker. The 37-year-old ranks 11th on tour in strokes gained approach and is 20th in total strokes gained this season. While Taylor doesn’t gain a ton of strokes off the tee, being accurate out of the box at Royal Portrush is arguably more important, and Taylor ranks 22nd in driving accuracy.
His game is also in a good place at the moment. Since missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Taylor hasn’t finished worse than T23. That includes a solo fourth at The Memorial and a T23 at the U.S. Open.
He’s also coming off three rounds in the 60s at the Scottish Open last week to finish T22.
Mix in the fact that every good Canadian can handle some ugly weather, and I can see a world where Taylor is in contention come Sunday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
