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    All Forums | WNBA

    Uncovering the post-Lynx Jinx (but it's not really a jinx)

    123456 Next Last»
    MrBator
    finsterbaby
    LuckyGuy
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    123456 Next Last»
     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 4:10 PM ET #1

    The mighty Minnesota Lynx stand atop the WNBA standings at 30-7. Opponents running into this buzzsaw have found it hazardous to their health, not to mention their prospects in their very next game. The other 14 teams in the W are 11-25 SU and 14-22 ATS this season after facing Olivia Miles, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and friends. 

     

    That's not good, but six weeks into the season, it began to get much worse. On Friday, June 19th, the Golden State Valykries hosted the Lynx and lost. Since that night, WNBA teams have gone 3-18 SU and 6-15 ATS after facing the Lynx. Only two teams have managed to win their next game after facing them. The Dallas Wings did it twice, beating the Fire In Portland and the Tempo in Dallas, but failed to cover the spread both times vs. very bad teams. The Portland Fire defeated the cellar-dwelling Seattle Storm by two points after the oddsmakers had dared to make the Storm favored by 2.5 points.

    Since June 19th, four teams have had to play the Lynx twice in a row. They collectively lost all 8 games, but went 3-1 ATS in the rematches. This, I believe, is because all four were poor teams against whom the Lynx didn't try their hardest in the second game. If we throw out these four rematches, that makes WNBA teams 3-14 SU and 3-14 ATS after playing the Lynx.

     

    Two nights ago, the Valykries hosted the Lynx and got schooled by a score of 77-66, a game in which they trailed by as many as 21 points and never led. It was their third straight loss this season to league-leading Minny and dropped them 0-9 vs. Minnesota since the Valykries entered the league to begin the 2025 season. That bodes poorly for their next game, which is tonight in Chicago vs. the Sky. 

    The Chicago Sky are coming off two straight wins, including a home dog upset of the New York Liberty on Monday night. Still, their record is just 14-22, which means the 25-10 Valykries are road favorites tonight. So how have teams fared as favorites immediately after having been put through the Lynx blender?

     

    Badly. Very badly.

     

    Seven teams since June 26th have been favored in their next game after playing the Lynx. Check it out...

     

    On June 24th, the Mystics lost at home to the Lynx. Two days later, favored by 3.5 at the Sun, the Mystics lost 68-57.

    On June 28th, the Wings lost at home to the Lynx. Four days later, favored by 6.5 at the Sun, they won 86-83.

    On July 3rd, the Liberty defeated the Lynx at home. Four days later, favored by 4.5 at home vs. the Wings, the Liberty lost 88-77.

    On July 11th, the Liberty lost in Minnesota. The next night, favored by 7.5 in Toronto, the Liberty lost 93-91.

    On July 13th, the Mercury lost in Minnesota. Four days later, favored by 3.5 at home vs. the Suns, the Mercury lost 96-83.

    On August 2nd, the Fever lost in Minnesota. Four days later, favored by 1.5 at home vs. the Aces, the Fever lost 86-84 in overtime.

    On August 15th, the Aces lost at home to the Lynx. Three days later, favored by 3.5 at home vs. the Dream, the Aces lost 97-82.

     

    Since June 19th, teams favored in their next game after playing the Lynx are 1-6 and 0-7 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 11.6 points per game. Yikes. Also in these 7 games, these favored teams went 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in the 1st halves.

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    The mighty Minnesota Lynx stand atop the WNBA standings at 30-7. Opponents running into this buzzsaw have found it hazardous to their health, not to mention their prospects in their very next game. The other 14 teams in the W are 11-25 SU and 14-22 ATS this season after facing Olivia Miles, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and friends. 

     

    That's not good, but six weeks into the season, it began to get much worse. On Friday, June 19th, the Golden State Valykries hosted the Lynx and lost. Since that night, WNBA teams have gone 3-18 SU and 6-15 ATS after facing the Lynx. Only two teams have managed to win their next game after facing them. The Dallas Wings did it twice, beating the Fire In Portland and the Tempo in Dallas, but failed to cover the spread both times vs. very bad teams. The Portland Fire defeated the cellar-dwelling Seattle Storm by two points after the oddsmakers had dared to make the Storm favored by 2.5 points.

    Since June 19th, four teams have had to play the Lynx twice in a row. They collectively lost all 8 games, but went 3-1 ATS in the rematches. This, I believe, is because all four were poor teams against whom the Lynx didn't try their hardest in the second game. If we throw out these four rematches, that makes WNBA teams 3-14 SU and 3-14 ATS after playing the Lynx.

     

    Two nights ago, the Valykries hosted the Lynx and got schooled by a score of 77-66, a game in which they trailed by as many as 21 points and never led. It was their third straight loss this season to league-leading Minny and dropped them 0-9 vs. Minnesota since the Valykries entered the league to begin the 2025 season. That bodes poorly for their next game, which is tonight in Chicago vs. the Sky. 

    The Chicago Sky are coming off two straight wins, including a home dog upset of the New York Liberty on Monday night. Still, their record is just 14-22, which means the 25-10 Valykries are road favorites tonight. So how have teams fared as favorites immediately after having been put through the Lynx blender?

     

    Badly. Very badly.

     

    Seven teams since June 26th have been favored in their next game after playing the Lynx. Check it out...

     

    On June 24th, the Mystics lost at home to the Lynx. Two days later, favored by 3.5 at the Sun, the Mystics lost 68-57.

    On June 28th, the Wings lost at home to the Lynx. Four days later, favored by 6.5 at the Sun, they won 86-83.

    On July 3rd, the Liberty defeated the Lynx at home. Four days later, favored by 4.5 at home vs. the Wings, the Liberty lost 88-77.

    On July 11th, the Liberty lost in Minnesota. The next night, favored by 7.5 in Toronto, the Liberty lost 93-91.

    On July 13th, the Mercury lost in Minnesota. Four days later, favored by 3.5 at home vs. the Suns, the Mercury lost 96-83.

    On August 2nd, the Fever lost in Minnesota. Four days later, favored by 1.5 at home vs. the Aces, the Fever lost 86-84 in overtime.

    On August 15th, the Aces lost at home to the Lynx. Three days later, favored by 3.5 at home vs. the Dream, the Aces lost 97-82.

     

    Since June 19th, teams favored in their next game after playing the Lynx are 1-6 and 0-7 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 11.6 points per game. Yikes. Also in these 7 games, these favored teams went 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in the 1st halves.

     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 4:10 PM ET #2

    Not always being smart, I bet against the Lynx two nights ago when they paid the Valykries a visit. I knew before the 1st quarter was over that my huge Valks +130/under 164 parlay was roast beef. The Lynx, despite having won 14 of their previous 15 games, and despite having already defeated the Valykries twice this season, laid a brand of jailhouse defense on the home team the likes of which I hadn't seen in a long time. The proud Valykries were simply not permitted to attempt an open shot with the occasional exception of a 3-pointer. The Valykries, unable to get shots off inside the arc, tried 37 threes on this lost evening and made only 7 of them.

     

    It's my opinion that this 77-66 loss was damaging in more ways than one. Going into that game, the Valykries had every reason to believe they were among the league's best teams with a 25-9 record and 15-4 record at home. Also, they came in riding a 6-game winning streak. But after being humbled and held to a sad 32% shooting mark (25-77), this team has to be thinking about the gulf that actually exists between them and the Lynx, the one team they cannot beat. That home loss was a confidence-crusher, and I expect they will lose this game tonight in Chicago that the oddsmakers are leading us to believe they will win.

     

    I haven't yet determined how much I will bet on the Sky plus the points, but I have already placed these two bets...

    Sky +240 parlayed to under 164 risking 3 units to win 16.3 units

    Sky +180 parlayed to under 79 in the 1st half risking 3.3 units to win 14.3 units

     

    5 of those 7 road favorites listed above stayed under for both the 1st half and full game.

    Reply

    Not always being smart, I bet against the Lynx two nights ago when they paid the Valykries a visit. I knew before the 1st quarter was over that my huge Valks +130/under 164 parlay was roast beef. The Lynx, despite having won 14 of their previous 15 games, and despite having already defeated the Valykries twice this season, laid a brand of jailhouse defense on the home team the likes of which I hadn't seen in a long time. The proud Valykries were simply not permitted to attempt an open shot with the occasional exception of a 3-pointer. The Valykries, unable to get shots off inside the arc, tried 37 threes on this lost evening and made only 7 of them.

     

    It's my opinion that this 77-66 loss was damaging in more ways than one. Going into that game, the Valykries had every reason to believe they were among the league's best teams with a 25-9 record and 15-4 record at home. Also, they came in riding a 6-game winning streak. But after being humbled and held to a sad 32% shooting mark (25-77), this team has to be thinking about the gulf that actually exists between them and the Lynx, the one team they cannot beat. That home loss was a confidence-crusher, and I expect they will lose this game tonight in Chicago that the oddsmakers are leading us to believe they will win.

     

    I haven't yet determined how much I will bet on the Sky plus the points, but I have already placed these two bets...

    Sky +240 parlayed to under 164 risking 3 units to win 16.3 units

    Sky +180 parlayed to under 79 in the 1st half risking 3.3 units to win 14.3 units

     

    5 of those 7 road favorites listed above stayed under for both the 1st half and full game.

     
    finsterbaby
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 4:31 PM ET #3

    cloverMB, GS bounces back 2nite by 8 or more, sky coming off a big home win should b flatan_fight

    Reply

    cloverMB, GS bounces back 2nite by 8 or more, sky coming off a big home win should b flatan_fight

     
    LuckyGuy
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 4:33 PM ET #4

    @MrBator

     peace_5

    Sharing is Caring
    Reply

    @MrBator

     peace_5

     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 5:02 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by finsterbaby:

    sky coming off a big home win should b flatan_fight

     

     

    Why? It's a Friday night and they're home dogs and they're coming off a big home dog win from three days ago and they're gonna be flat? Why?

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by finsterbaby:

    sky coming off a big home win should b flatan_fight

     

     

    Why? It's a Friday night and they're home dogs and they're coming off a big home dog win from three days ago and they're gonna be flat? Why?

     
    DMD252
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 5:28 PM ET #6

    @MrBator

     I'm amazed that u have that info.

    Best of Luck tonite and for the rest of the season.

    Reply

    @MrBator

     I'm amazed that u have that info.

    Best of Luck tonite and for the rest of the season.

     
    guyhopestowin
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 6:12 PM ET #7

    this game is either no bet or trust valkyries for me

     

    everytime I truested valkyries opponents I lost. I see where you are coming from, queries favor Sky a lot, but psychological aspect tells me either bets above

     

    good luck though

    Reply

    this game is either no bet or trust valkyries for me

     

    everytime I truested valkyries opponents I lost. I see where you are coming from, queries favor Sky a lot, but psychological aspect tells me either bets above

     

    good luck though

     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 6:13 PM ET #8

    DMD252, whenever I observe a team rampaging through their league (not just the WNBA), I wonder how their beaten opponents do in their next game. Usually, it’s not good. They’re often still feeling battered!

    Reply

    DMD252, whenever I observe a team rampaging through their league (not just the WNBA), I wonder how their beaten opponents do in their next game. Usually, it’s not good. They’re often still feeling battered!

     
    stano91
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 6:18 PM ET #9

    They’re often still feeling battered!

    So true. Even in o45 rec soccer!

    As always, great writeup Mr B. 

    Reply

    They’re often still feeling battered!

    So true. Even in o45 rec soccer!

    As always, great writeup Mr B. 

     
    finsterbaby
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 6:24 PM ET #10

    Teams with bad records after coming off big wins over 60 % come flat next game see if it holds true tonite MB .cloverTho.

    Reply

    Teams with bad records after coming off big wins over 60 % come flat next game see if it holds true tonite MB .cloverTho.

     
    Stress
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 6:51 PM ET #11

    Good stuff!  I'll add that the Sky at home since July are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS.  As home dogs 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS.

    Some fun numbers are the Sky have never won 3 games in a row this year.  Will the 5th try be the one.  They are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS following BTB wins.  But the Valkyries since June have followed every loss with a loss.  3 times it has happened.  The second loss of BTB they were 0-3 SU and ATS all on the road.

    Good Luck!peace_5

    Reply

    Good stuff!  I'll add that the Sky at home since July are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS.  As home dogs 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS.

    Some fun numbers are the Sky have never won 3 games in a row this year.  Will the 5th try be the one.  They are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS following BTB wins.  But the Valkyries since June have followed every loss with a loss.  3 times it has happened.  The second loss of BTB they were 0-3 SU and ATS all on the road.

    Good Luck!peace_5

     
    westlake888
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 6:52 PM ET #12

    @MrBator

     I agreed your insight. I think it’s perfect setup for this game. If Sky wins tonight I definitely will bet on GS on Sunday to beat Lynx as triple revenge. peace_5

    Reply

    @MrBator

     I agreed your insight. I think it’s perfect setup for this game. If Sky wins tonight I definitely will bet on GS on Sunday to beat Lynx as triple revenge. peace_5

     
    Stress
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 7:07 PM ET #13

    This is Hayes after their Lynx loss

    "We made a lot of mistakes, but at the end, our fight was there the entire time," Hayes said. "I know it was a playoff-type game and I really love those. I can't wait till the next one."

    She will keep waiting after beating the Sky last week by 20.  If any team is flat I'd say it would be the Valkyries with travel, 1 days rest and just playing a playoff-type game.

    Reply

    This is Hayes after their Lynx loss

    "We made a lot of mistakes, but at the end, our fight was there the entire time," Hayes said. "I know it was a playoff-type game and I really love those. I can't wait till the next one."

    She will keep waiting after beating the Sky last week by 20.  If any team is flat I'd say it would be the Valkyries with travel, 1 days rest and just playing a playoff-type game.

     
    Upandoher
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    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 7:10 PM ET #14

    @MrBator

     How much are we doing on the spread?

    Reply

    @MrBator

     How much are we doing on the spread?

     
    MrBator
    MrBator
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2004
    Posts: 53508
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 7:14 PM ET #15

    Getting down right now on +7 -110, +6.5 -110, and +3.5 -105 in the 1st half.

    Reply

    Getting down right now on +7 -110, +6.5 -110, and +3.5 -105 in the 1st half.

     
    MrBator
    MrBator
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    Joined: Apr, 2004
    Posts: 53508
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 7:50 PM ET #16

    Sky +7 -110 risking 3.3 units

    Sky +6.5 -110 risking 8.8 units

    Sky +240 parlayed to under 164 risking 3 units to win 16.3 units

    Sky +3.5 -105 in the 1st half risking 6.3 units 

    Sky +3.5 -110 in the 1st half risking 1.1 units 

    Sky +180 parlayed to under 79 in the 1st half risking 3.3 units to win 14.3 units 

    Reply

    Sky +7 -110 risking 3.3 units

    Sky +6.5 -110 risking 8.8 units

    Sky +240 parlayed to under 164 risking 3 units to win 16.3 units

    Sky +3.5 -105 in the 1st half risking 6.3 units 

    Sky +3.5 -110 in the 1st half risking 1.1 units 

    Sky +180 parlayed to under 79 in the 1st half risking 3.3 units to win 14.3 units 

     
    guyhopestowin
    guyhopestowin
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    Joined: Jun, 2014
    Posts: 6117
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 7:50 PM ET #17

    what a pathetic start from valkyries

    I hope you win bator still long game to go

    can never predict these ladies they turn 180 everyday

    Reply

    what a pathetic start from valkyries

    I hope you win bator still long game to go

    can never predict these ladies they turn 180 everyday

     
    Consilience
    Consilience
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    Joined: Jun, 2008
    Posts: 3464
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 8:01 PM ET #18

    Guyhopestowin, it’s all good. I sent both teams copies of MrB’s script. Should be fine. There’s only one way to play this at HT too. More Sky. 

    Reply

    Guyhopestowin, it’s all good. I sent both teams copies of MrB’s script. Should be fine. There’s only one way to play this at HT too. More Sky. 

     
    MrBator
    MrBator
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    Posts: 53508
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 8:03 PM ET #19

    An 8-0 run by the reeling Valkyrie’s to end the 1st quarter was met by a 9-0 run by the Sky to reassume total control. 

    Shoot, I shoulda bet more……

    Reply

    An 8-0 run by the reeling Valkyrie’s to end the 1st quarter was met by a 9-0 run by the Sky to reassume total control. 

    Shoot, I shoulda bet more……

     
    Upandoher
    Upandoher
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    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 1058
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 8:05 PM ET #20

    @MrBator

     an_cheers

    Reply

    @MrBator

     an_cheers

     
    Upandoher
    Upandoher
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    Joined: Nov, 2007
    Posts: 1058
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 8:06 PM ET #21

    @MrBator

     Will you do anything at HT?

    Reply

    @MrBator

     Will you do anything at HT?

     
    marscaps
    marscaps
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2020
    Posts: 367
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 8:08 PM ET #22

    an_horse

    Reply

    an_horse

     
    LuckyGuy
    LuckyGuy
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    Joined: Apr, 2008
    Posts: 64258
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 8:09 PM ET #23

    @MrBator

     moneybag

    Sharing is Caring
    Reply

    @MrBator

     moneybag

     
    MrBator
    MrBator
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    Joined: Apr, 2004
    Posts: 53508
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 8:15 PM ET #24

    The still shaken Valkyries are bricking to the tune of 32% (8-32), and much like two nights ago, they CANNOT make a 3-point shot. They’re 0-7.

    Reply

    The still shaken Valkyries are bricking to the tune of 32% (8-32), and much like two nights ago, they CANNOT make a 3-point shot. They’re 0-7.

     
     
    MrBator
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    Joined: Apr, 2004
    Posts: 53508
    Posted: Aug. 21, 2026 - 8:17 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by Upandoher:

    @MrBator

     Will you do anything at HT?

     

    Pat myself on the back. That does not happen often.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Upandoher:

    @MrBator

     Will you do anything at HT?

     

    Pat myself on the back. That does not happen often.

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