2025

2024 Dogs and favorites 

the month of may was the only month in which the dogs showed a profit ATS

after that only lines of +11 or more dogs were profitable.  

There was no parody in the league last season.  Basketball is this was because the 5 elite starters make the most impact of any other team sort.  Elite players win cover and dominate 

The Mystic were the best bad team ATS last season 

They gad done generous lines.  I feel a lot of that was because EDD quit/retired last year.  That won’t be the case this season

whats going to happen this season?  In my opinion all the elite teams (Liberty, Aces,Sun although the Sun are no longer elite) will regress.  The parody will be much more real this season.  Expect a lot more dogs and inconsistencies.  A lot of the bad teams will be favored and expect some upsets moment of the season.  

Elite this season 

Fever

Liberty 

Storm

Aces 

Lynx

Dream could surprise 

Merc could be improved but this is questionable.  I think the Merc could be a good dog.  

Mytics lines won’t be as big as last year. 

Sun are a fade for me. 

Wings are a good dog they score a lot but as a favorite will struggle.  They have not shown the defense they need. 

Valkries will win a few but they are going to need a lot of points.  They have a lot of mediocre players that are not elite.  

D and line>=8 and season>2015 and site=away and n:line<11 and n:DA and 21>(o:wins-o:losses)>0 and month>5

May best case for dogs 

AD and month= 5 and season>2014 and tpS(W)>6 and line>5 and opS(W)<22

Another strong case to fade may favorites 

H and F and month=5 and tpS(playoffs)=0

H and F and month=5 and tpS(playoffs)<3 and line>-8 and tpS(W)<21 and streak>-2 and ats streak!=1

H and F and month=5 and tpS(playoffs)<3 and line>-15 and tpS(W)<21 and n:H

month=5 and D and tpS(W)<10 and o:streak!=5 and o:streak!=4 and o:ats streak>-2 and streak!=-1 and streak!=-2 and streak!=-3

Under 90.5 1st half live lynx sky 

score is 27-25 so it’s 38.5 second qtr

Minne steady and consistent shooting.  Sky don’t have that.  Sky will have to sit at times and the bench will have problems.  

Close on but cash money

Game #2’s

game number=2 and F and ats streak=-1 and 88>p:points>71 and o:streak>-3 and rest<6 and line<-2 and total<170 and tpS(W)>0

Spottie:

"Mark my words the new team will make a few big upsets and probably early."

Agree. 

I'm taking their Regular Season Wins Total Over. I did a little research on this, I'll share what I found in a reply in this post (or the website promotion forum if I use the entire WNBA article, to credit the source.)

Just waiting for one or two more houses to put their lines up to get the best number and price. Right now I see two numbers being offered, 7' and 8'. 

Also, to misquote Van, I'm NOT "Into the Mystic(s)" (someone will get that reference, yes?) Taking them Under.

Spottie:

 "I can’t bet on a team that I have no clue on."

I did this a couple days ago.

I bet on the Kunming Monks.

I had no idea who they are.

I didn’t even know what sport or league they play in.

I logged into one of my books to check the morning NBA lines and at the top of the page I saw a game between the Kunming Monks and the Shanghai Five.

The Monks were -5', live.

I bet it on a whim simply because I think the Kunming Monks is a great name for a team.

At first glance I didn’t see the “n” in the middle of Kunming and thought it was the Kumming Monks, which, for obvious reasons, is an even cooler name than the Kunming Monks.

They won by double digits so it worked out well for me.

Sometimes life is cool that way.

Good luck to you this NBA season. I'll drop in once in a while if I have something worth sharing.

@VeritasAlways

 Thanks for your contribution.  I go back and forth on done if my ideas.  The thoughts make me think more clearly.  

best wishes, thanks 

Same to you, good luck this season! 

WNBA Regular Season Wins article is up in the Web Promotions forum if you'd like some more food for thought.

I like GS Over. I got it at 7' but I can only find that at one book. The common number is 8' so that's what I used for the play. And because I don't post what I don't play I bought in at 8' too.

Also liking the Dream to win by double digits tomorrow.

Not huge investments for me, just some fun for a rooting interest throughout the season. 

@VeritasAlways

 I agree the Valkyrie will win their team total of wins.  You have described this well enough.  

I will add a new team to the list.  

In my opinion (and it starts tonight) one of  the worst teams in the W is the Mystics. In 2024 they covered a lot of dog spreads. They were really competitive in the underdog roles.  Now the off-season and giving away experienced talent to get high draft picks has them in a pickle.  Even researching past seasons high draft choices don’t work out.  So yes they have some skilled young talent at the moment.  This can and will hurt them this season.  

I believe the worst teams will be the Sun and the Mystics but since I have focused a lot my efforts in the preseason on the Mystics and feel more confident in saying they will be the worst team and not win their season win total 13.5 wins.  

 They could be challenged defensively they do t have much experienced high talent and the coach and front office have all made changes.  

To me this team will resemble the San Antonio Stars and the Fever a few year back.  

Mystics under 13.5 season wins

Tonight’s plays 

Valkyrie +5.5 yes I got a better line than this but this is the current line

Dream-7.5 same with this line 

I still believe in these current lines.  I don’t this the line moves will make a difference.  That being said I could be wrong so if you bet the games it’s your decision.  

Earky season games are very volatile so tread lightly in the early season and after game ones over reactions creates better opportunities going forward. 

Agree again, on the Mystics.

I used them on the Under too, article with the stats the play is based on just posted in the promo forum. Excerpt:

"Guess which team had the lowest PPG (in the preseason) on offense?

Yup, the Mystics.

Washington averaged 72 PPG, which was 11.6 points beneath the league average of 83.6.

And in just two games, they had 38 turnovers.

That’s an average of almost five turnovers per quarter!"

You can't give it too much weight cuz it's just two preseason games but based on the fast pace style of play new head coach Johnson wants them to incorporate (taking their first shot within 8 seconds of getting possession) they're going to have a lot of missed shots and turnovers. 

"I got a better line than this but this is the current line."

Bravo.

I do the same all the time. 

Posting lines that most of the average sports bettors can't get is an exercise in vanity. And the norm in ForumLand. Your integrity is admirable.

Again, I wish you success this season.

@VeritasAlways

 Thanks.  I really don’t care about posting the best lines.  I will post the current line available and comment on the bet available. My personal bankroll is more important of course.  My record here is imported but no as adding money to my personal bottom line.  

when I post I have to consider other people following.  Besides if I post my line I get a few question about the line not available and would I recommend.  To avoid all this I just post with credibility.  

Yes under 75 mystics was serious serious consideration as well.  Limiting  the opponent’s scoring is the most impactful stat to covering spreads. 

also something of note early season better unders are always a consideration. 

should be at least a winning record this weekend.