Sunday was a disappointment to say the least. I am not going to talk about it except in so far as those performances relate to today's games.
LYNX@LIBERTY
Same old injuries on both sides from what I see. Season series belongs to Minnesota 2-0. Minnesota won at home by 6 pts and won in NY by 7. Minnesota entered the 4th quarter of the last game with a 16 point lead and the final score doesn't tell the whole story about how the Liberty fought back. It's now 3 straight games for Ionescu with 23+ pts and at least three 3s. She also shot over 50% from the field in two of those games and has had turnover total of 3, 2, and 3. It has been a rough adjustment period for Sabrina in becoming the #1 option but it really seems like she is getting comfortable. Her and Howard had 51 of the Liberty's 77 points last time out. Dolson was 0/5 in 16 minutes with plenty of foul trouble. Allen was 1/7 in 22 minutes. Crystal showed some fight and I expect that out of her every time she plays Minnesota. She especially will not be happy about losing to the team that gave up on her for the second time in a row. She has played Minnesota 3 times already this season (1 with the Fever and 2 with the Liberty). In that first game, she had 10 points and 6 assists in 20 minutes on her way to a win. Both teams are coming into this one with the same amount of rest having both played and on Sunday. The Lynx played a much tighter rotation than the Liberty. Shepard was the only Lynx starter to not hit 30 minutes and she played 29. The 36 year old Fowles played just as many minutes and was crucial in holding off New York rallies. Powers (33 minutes) was absolutely on fire. I do not think she will match that production today. McBride and Banham played 35 and 31. Only 32 minutes total (of a possible 200) went out to 4 bench players who managed to provide 4 points. Minnesota has some advantages in this matchup but I don't think they will have the energy or the personnel to make the most of them. Even if they did, I don't even know if I can trust them. There were times in the last game when even the Liberty analysts were wondering why Minnesota wasn't attacking inside. Ionescu played 36 minutes but she is 24 years old. Some concerns for Howard with her age and minutes (30, 35m) but no other Liberty player played more than 23 minutes so they should have plenty of options. At 3-7, I don't think the Lynx are necessarily overlooking any games. New York and Minnesota are in very similar positions in terms of looking at games against each other as must wins. Lynx got two. I think New York gets one today.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
17-21 +1.85U
Sunday was a disappointment to say the least. I am not going to talk about it except in so far as those performances relate to today's games.
LYNX@LIBERTY
Same old injuries on both sides from what I see. Season series belongs to Minnesota 2-0. Minnesota won at home by 6 pts and won in NY by 7. Minnesota entered the 4th quarter of the last game with a 16 point lead and the final score doesn't tell the whole story about how the Liberty fought back. It's now 3 straight games for Ionescu with 23+ pts and at least three 3s. She also shot over 50% from the field in two of those games and has had turnover total of 3, 2, and 3. It has been a rough adjustment period for Sabrina in becoming the #1 option but it really seems like she is getting comfortable. Her and Howard had 51 of the Liberty's 77 points last time out. Dolson was 0/5 in 16 minutes with plenty of foul trouble. Allen was 1/7 in 22 minutes. Crystal showed some fight and I expect that out of her every time she plays Minnesota. She especially will not be happy about losing to the team that gave up on her for the second time in a row. She has played Minnesota 3 times already this season (1 with the Fever and 2 with the Liberty). In that first game, she had 10 points and 6 assists in 20 minutes on her way to a win. Both teams are coming into this one with the same amount of rest having both played and on Sunday. The Lynx played a much tighter rotation than the Liberty. Shepard was the only Lynx starter to not hit 30 minutes and she played 29. The 36 year old Fowles played just as many minutes and was crucial in holding off New York rallies. Powers (33 minutes) was absolutely on fire. I do not think she will match that production today. McBride and Banham played 35 and 31. Only 32 minutes total (of a possible 200) went out to 4 bench players who managed to provide 4 points. Minnesota has some advantages in this matchup but I don't think they will have the energy or the personnel to make the most of them. Even if they did, I don't even know if I can trust them. There were times in the last game when even the Liberty analysts were wondering why Minnesota wasn't attacking inside. Ionescu played 36 minutes but she is 24 years old. Some concerns for Howard with her age and minutes (30, 35m) but no other Liberty player played more than 23 minutes so they should have plenty of options. At 3-7, I don't think the Lynx are necessarily overlooking any games. New York and Minnesota are in very similar positions in terms of looking at games against each other as must wins. Lynx got two. I think New York gets one today.
3 point shooting has made basketball and betting on basketball so crazy. We've all heard it. Live by it, die by it.
For the season, NYL makes an average of 7.9 threes on 29.3% shooting. Minnesota's season numbers are 5.6 threes on 33.5% shooting.
Last game, the Liberty shot 4/30 (13%) from 3. In that same game, Minnesota shot 7/13 (54%) from 3. Powers in particular had her highest scoring game of the season and shot 50% for the first time in 11 games. She was 3/3 from 3 after 1/6 in her previous four games. The only other time she cracked 20 this season was 25 @ LV but even in that game she was 9/21 and 3/7 from 3. Last game was her game but I expect some regression today. She's a great player but not that good or at least hasn't been this season. In the first matchup, she had 18 points shooting 3/13 and got 12 of those 18 points at the free throw line (12/14).
Could Ionescu regress as well? Sure, but with three strong games in a row and plenty of individual success against this team I just don't think it'll happen today to an extent that it hurts the team. It really seems that she is getting comfortable in her role and the confidence is growing. I don't support all of the shots she took last game but you just don't take those shots unless you're feeling good. Maybe she doesn't score as much today but she gets the others going. She almost had a triple double with just 10 points in the first game and the score was similar. They don't need 30 from her to get the W. It's more about the rest of the team for me anyway. Fowles is a stud and could easily continue to be a stud for 40mins a game all season long. It wouldn't surprise me but she is human. Whether she produces in this game or not, it's the players surrounding her that I expect to struggle a bit. Powers, McBride, and Banham all scored over their season averages. McBride was 3/3 from 3 just like Powers. In her other 6 games played this season she has shot 12/34 from distance which is just two misses away from 1/3. God, I could go on forever. On the other side, Dolson was 0/5 in 16 minutes with 3 turnovers. She honestly wasn't much better in the first matchup with 2 pts on 0/2 from the field and a turnover in 18 minutes. Still, these are her worst two games of the season and I am sure she knows it. She should at least want to perform better in this one. If she is unable to, New York has the depth to not let this hurt them. Stef avgs 23 minutes per game but has only played 18 and 16 in these two Lynx matchups. Enter Han Xu. After two down games in both minutes and production, Liberty went back to her against the Lynx. 23 minutes, 9 points (4/5), 5 reb, 2 stl, 1 blk. Last time she played Minnesota? 21 minutes, 11 points (5/6), 7 reb, 2 blk. I expect 20 mins minimum for her. Allen had her worst game of the season so far in the recent loss. 2 pts, 1/7 (0/2 from 3), and four fouls which probably contributed to her playing only 22 minutes. Her best game of the season? May 24th @ Minnesota. 33 mins, 21 pts, 8/20 (4/8 from 3), 1 stl, 1 blk. It's been a down season for her but over the last three games before losing to the Lynx she was still shooting 50% from the field and better than 33% from 3. This recent loss was an anomaly. Bounce back for Spida.
3 point shooting has made basketball and betting on basketball so crazy. We've all heard it. Live by it, die by it.
For the season, NYL makes an average of 7.9 threes on 29.3% shooting. Minnesota's season numbers are 5.6 threes on 33.5% shooting.
Last game, the Liberty shot 4/30 (13%) from 3. In that same game, Minnesota shot 7/13 (54%) from 3. Powers in particular had her highest scoring game of the season and shot 50% for the first time in 11 games. She was 3/3 from 3 after 1/6 in her previous four games. The only other time she cracked 20 this season was 25 @ LV but even in that game she was 9/21 and 3/7 from 3. Last game was her game but I expect some regression today. She's a great player but not that good or at least hasn't been this season. In the first matchup, she had 18 points shooting 3/13 and got 12 of those 18 points at the free throw line (12/14).
Could Ionescu regress as well? Sure, but with three strong games in a row and plenty of individual success against this team I just don't think it'll happen today to an extent that it hurts the team. It really seems that she is getting comfortable in her role and the confidence is growing. I don't support all of the shots she took last game but you just don't take those shots unless you're feeling good. Maybe she doesn't score as much today but she gets the others going. She almost had a triple double with just 10 points in the first game and the score was similar. They don't need 30 from her to get the W. It's more about the rest of the team for me anyway. Fowles is a stud and could easily continue to be a stud for 40mins a game all season long. It wouldn't surprise me but she is human. Whether she produces in this game or not, it's the players surrounding her that I expect to struggle a bit. Powers, McBride, and Banham all scored over their season averages. McBride was 3/3 from 3 just like Powers. In her other 6 games played this season she has shot 12/34 from distance which is just two misses away from 1/3. God, I could go on forever. On the other side, Dolson was 0/5 in 16 minutes with 3 turnovers. She honestly wasn't much better in the first matchup with 2 pts on 0/2 from the field and a turnover in 18 minutes. Still, these are her worst two games of the season and I am sure she knows it. She should at least want to perform better in this one. If she is unable to, New York has the depth to not let this hurt them. Stef avgs 23 minutes per game but has only played 18 and 16 in these two Lynx matchups. Enter Han Xu. After two down games in both minutes and production, Liberty went back to her against the Lynx. 23 minutes, 9 points (4/5), 5 reb, 2 stl, 1 blk. Last time she played Minnesota? 21 minutes, 11 points (5/6), 7 reb, 2 blk. I expect 20 mins minimum for her. Allen had her worst game of the season so far in the recent loss. 2 pts, 1/7 (0/2 from 3), and four fouls which probably contributed to her playing only 22 minutes. Her best game of the season? May 24th @ Minnesota. 33 mins, 21 pts, 8/20 (4/8 from 3), 1 stl, 1 blk. It's been a down season for her but over the last three games before losing to the Lynx she was still shooting 50% from the field and better than 33% from 3. This recent loss was an anomaly. Bounce back for Spida.
We are about a third of the way through this season. A line is beginning to form in both the east and the west. 12 teams and the top 8 get a postseason. Four teams sit with just 3 wins and everyone else has 5 or more. After today, both Minnesota and New York will be 4 games away from the halfway mark of their season. Minnesota can at least feel like they have been taking care of business leading 2-0 in the series against this other bottom feeding team but New York has got to be kicking themselves. Obviously their season does not end with a loss today, but sitting at 3-9 and knowing that a bottom 4 team swept you 3-0 does not exactly spell out come back story.
In the last game I had Lynx and they pulled out the W but it wasn't really what I expected. New York was avging 18 turnovers but had only committed 12 in back to back games before hosting the Lynx. They actually brought that number down to 11 in that last game and forced 15. I thought Minnesota would have a huge advantage inside and on the boards but rebounds were 36-34 for the Lynx, o boards were 7-8 for the Liberty, and points in the paint were 34-44 for New York. 5 point advantage for MIN in second chance points and just 1 point more off turnovers. As I said earlier, I don't think Minnesota really exploited their advantages in that game but the discrepancy from 3 (7/13 vs. 4.30) and from the FT line (15/20 vs. 9/13) was enough to get them the win.
MIN Lynx @ NY Liberty -2.5 (-110) 3U
We are about a third of the way through this season. A line is beginning to form in both the east and the west. 12 teams and the top 8 get a postseason. Four teams sit with just 3 wins and everyone else has 5 or more. After today, both Minnesota and New York will be 4 games away from the halfway mark of their season. Minnesota can at least feel like they have been taking care of business leading 2-0 in the series against this other bottom feeding team but New York has got to be kicking themselves. Obviously their season does not end with a loss today, but sitting at 3-9 and knowing that a bottom 4 team swept you 3-0 does not exactly spell out come back story.
In the last game I had Lynx and they pulled out the W but it wasn't really what I expected. New York was avging 18 turnovers but had only committed 12 in back to back games before hosting the Lynx. They actually brought that number down to 11 in that last game and forced 15. I thought Minnesota would have a huge advantage inside and on the boards but rebounds were 36-34 for the Lynx, o boards were 7-8 for the Liberty, and points in the paint were 34-44 for New York. 5 point advantage for MIN in second chance points and just 1 point more off turnovers. As I said earlier, I don't think Minnesota really exploited their advantages in that game but the discrepancy from 3 (7/13 vs. 4.30) and from the FT line (15/20 vs. 9/13) was enough to get them the win.
Oof. What a game for Seattle last time. Multiple times they built big leads just to squander them with bench play. Connecticut played big and it paid off for them. Alyssa Thomas was the only Sun player to score and not shoot 50% or better from the floor. She was a basket away from a triple double with 11 boards and 12 assists. Seattle was out-coached, out-played, and out-scored for the second straight home game. At 5-5, their position of third in the west is a bit of false security but I think Seattle knows this. Atlanta is third in the west and boasts a record of 7-4 which translates to #4 league-wide. Seattle is in 7th and leads the 8th place Sparks by just two losses. Seattle has two big games coming up against Dallas after this one but they are in no position to be looking ahead. They also play their next 5 games on the road and are only 4-3 on this homestand. .500 on an 8 game homestand is not acceptable for a team with this kind of talent and pedigree, which is what we have if they lose today. 7 points seems like a lot but I spoke before about how the Atlanta style of play lends itself to blowouts one way or the other. Seattle built leads last game and squandered them. I expect them to play a lot better with the lead this game if/when they get it.
I had Indiana against Atlanta. It didn't work out for me but despite a TERRIBLE game for the Fever they were still right there for the cover in the final possession. I expected Indiana to struggle in the halfcourt against the #1 D of Atlanta but it was so much worse than I could have expected. Not only that, but they seemed to have forgotten how to run. Indiana is not a good defensive team but put up some solid defensive numbers in that game holding the Dream to 75 points (4/15 from 3) and forcing 21 turnovers. The issue was capitalizing on these stops which Atlanta managed to do at a more productive rate. Atlanta won second chance points 7-8, fast break points 6-14, and points off turnovers 27-30. 57 points of the total 141 were scored off turnovers in this one. Defense into offense. Indiana's inability to score in the halfcourt is really what fueled Atlanta's offense. Indiana also went
Seattle is not built like Indiana nor do they play like them. Storm struggled to keep up with the pace of the Sun but things should slow down quite a bit tonight with Atlanta coming to town. I think Seattle will find a lot more success in their halfcourt offense. Atlanta should not find the same defense into offense scoring opportunities against Seattle who avgs the second least turnovers per game (13.2). In fact, we should see it more so going the other way with Atlanta committing the most turnovers per game (18.8) and Seattle getting the most steals per game (9.6). Second game back for Ezi and Bird, not that the numbers look bad from last game but the result obviously wasn't what we wanted.
ATL Dream @ SEA Storm -7 (-110) 3U
ATL@SEA
Oof. What a game for Seattle last time. Multiple times they built big leads just to squander them with bench play. Connecticut played big and it paid off for them. Alyssa Thomas was the only Sun player to score and not shoot 50% or better from the floor. She was a basket away from a triple double with 11 boards and 12 assists. Seattle was out-coached, out-played, and out-scored for the second straight home game. At 5-5, their position of third in the west is a bit of false security but I think Seattle knows this. Atlanta is third in the west and boasts a record of 7-4 which translates to #4 league-wide. Seattle is in 7th and leads the 8th place Sparks by just two losses. Seattle has two big games coming up against Dallas after this one but they are in no position to be looking ahead. They also play their next 5 games on the road and are only 4-3 on this homestand. .500 on an 8 game homestand is not acceptable for a team with this kind of talent and pedigree, which is what we have if they lose today. 7 points seems like a lot but I spoke before about how the Atlanta style of play lends itself to blowouts one way or the other. Seattle built leads last game and squandered them. I expect them to play a lot better with the lead this game if/when they get it.
I had Indiana against Atlanta. It didn't work out for me but despite a TERRIBLE game for the Fever they were still right there for the cover in the final possession. I expected Indiana to struggle in the halfcourt against the #1 D of Atlanta but it was so much worse than I could have expected. Not only that, but they seemed to have forgotten how to run. Indiana is not a good defensive team but put up some solid defensive numbers in that game holding the Dream to 75 points (4/15 from 3) and forcing 21 turnovers. The issue was capitalizing on these stops which Atlanta managed to do at a more productive rate. Atlanta won second chance points 7-8, fast break points 6-14, and points off turnovers 27-30. 57 points of the total 141 were scored off turnovers in this one. Defense into offense. Indiana's inability to score in the halfcourt is really what fueled Atlanta's offense. Indiana also went
Seattle is not built like Indiana nor do they play like them. Storm struggled to keep up with the pace of the Sun but things should slow down quite a bit tonight with Atlanta coming to town. I think Seattle will find a lot more success in their halfcourt offense. Atlanta should not find the same defense into offense scoring opportunities against Seattle who avgs the second least turnovers per game (13.2). In fact, we should see it more so going the other way with Atlanta committing the most turnovers per game (18.8) and Seattle getting the most steals per game (9.6). Second game back for Ezi and Bird, not that the numbers look bad from last game but the result obviously wasn't what we wanted.
@LippyLeans If NY wants to win today, bench Dotson. She has been playing so poorly with so many fouls.
I don't disagree. Give Xu as many minutes as she can handle and send a message to Dolson about her play. I still expect her to start tonight but Brondello has shown already that her minutes are not guaranteed. Either she picks up her play tonight or we will see other options taking the floor. Either way, I don't expect her to hurt the Liberty too much tonight.
Quote Originally Posted by CALB:
@LippyLeans If NY wants to win today, bench Dotson. She has been playing so poorly with so many fouls.
I don't disagree. Give Xu as many minutes as she can handle and send a message to Dolson about her play. I still expect her to start tonight but Brondello has shown already that her minutes are not guaranteed. Either she picks up her play tonight or we will see other options taking the floor. Either way, I don't expect her to hurt the Liberty too much tonight.
GL
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