38-46 -11.7U
lol the last two Liberty games I felt like I wasn’t seeing clearly so I bet but didn’t post. Had I posted, I would not be in the red right now. La di da di da:)
Will be on The Merc tonight for sure. Waiting to see if it slides to 5 or 6 but either way I will pounce. 4U spread and 1U ML
MERCURY@WINGS
Gray is questionable for this one. If she is out, I don't expect the line to move much more than a point. I have this down as a win for Phoenix anyway so 5 points seems just fine either way. Sabally is still out and if both sit then the Wings will be without two of their 4 best players IMO. Usual suspects missing for the Merc in Griner and Nurse. Sophie Cunningham came back last game to play 14 minutes. She's no Marine Johannes but she's still glue.
Wings are back at .500 after a blowout win hosting the Fever. Having beat this PHX team just a week ago, I think their biggest motivation tonight is to put themselves over that 50/50 mark. PHX motivation should be greater. After falling down by 14 at the half, this team battled back and actually took a 80-79 lead midway through the final frame. McCowan and Ogunbowale had the last laughs but PHX should feel very good about their chances tonight if they don't dig such a large hole early on.
As I said, Dallas is coming off a 26 pt victory. Phoenix, on the other hand, is on a 3 game losing streak and lost the last two games to the worst team in the league (by record), giving up an average of 92 points in those two games. *NOTE back to back victories for Minnesota shooting above league average from the field and from 3*. The loss that started this streak was in Dallas just like tonight's game. Phoenix allowed 93 pts then. No Sabally or Cunningham in that one. Second game back for Sophie tonight which is when I usually expect players coming back from injury to have an impact. Not to mention that she had to watch PHX lose to this team a week ago.
Okay so winning by 25 or more is a big deal and of course we don't expect a repeat tonight. For the record, home favourites off a home win by 25 or more are 19-23-1 ATS all time and 1-2 this season. 16-25-2 to the UNDER is a little more intriguing especially since I think that will be more of a focus for PHX tonight. What if find more intriguing about this victory for Dallas is that they won all 4 quarters. This is pretty rare. What's that? Poisson clumping? OK. Turns out we had two teams accomplish this feat on the same night. Seattle also won all 4 quarters against Washington. I think I might just stick to this game today but anyone thinking about betting the Sparks@Storm game should definitely read this next part. The scenario that I just described where a team wins all 4 quarters, scoring strictly more than their opponent in all 4 frames, had occurred in the WNBA a total of 23 times before Thursday and 8 of those occurred this season making these numbers 9 and 10.
All-time: SU:12-11 (-2.3,52.2%) ATS:7-16 (-7.7,30.4%)-5.37OU:4-19-0 (-6.5,17.4%)162.02
This Season: SU:4-4 (0.5,50.0%) ATS:1-7 (-6.8,12.5%)-7.25OU:2-6-0 (-1.9,25.0%)161.1
More points for the UNDER?
If we refine the search to teams that accomplished this feat at home and remain home...
All-time: SU:3-4 (-4.6,42.9%) ATS:2-5 (-7.6,28.6%)-3.0OU:0-7-0 (-10.3,0.0%)161.43
This Season: SU:1-1 (2.0,50.0%) ATS:0-2 (-5.8,0.0%)-7.38OU:0-2-0 (-3.0,0.0%)161.88
This makes sense to me. Basically, teams that win all 4 quarters appear to be exerting so much energy throughout the game that it wears on them in the next one. Similarly, I am sure there is a psychological element to winning like that. The game feels easy and when the game feels easy, you relax. We can assume regression in shot making and all of that. I don't think Dallas comes into this one with urgency to match Phoenix. 9-9 actually has Dallas sitting at 5th overall whereas PHX (a team with playoff hopes) now sits in 10th. This season is not over but with 18 played and 18 remaining this is the exact halfway point for both teams. I will say, I just don't know if this is going to have the same impact on Seattle as I expect it to for Dallas. It makes me uncomfortable to see two teams in such similar spots and despite monetary support for LA recently, I really do despise that team. They were in a good spot against Chicago and matched up well inside but managed just 13 points or less in 3 of 4 quarters. Cambage is the most frustrating player in the W.
So that's the deal for Dallas, but it's not the only reason I will be on Phoenix tonight. It might not even be the biggest. I mentioned earlier that PHX just lost back to back games to Minnesota. With only 12 teams in the league, we get this kind of mini series fairly often. I do like to look at these scenarios often because I think it helps to break up the season for teams. So how many times this season has a team lost back to back games against the same team? 7 now. Let's look at the previous 6 in no particular order.
i) Mystics beat Dream by 5 and then again by 20. 5 days later Dream beat Mercury by 27.
ii) Storm beat Liberty by 8 and then again by 31. 3 days later Liberty beat Fever by 13.
iii) Dream beat Fever by 6 and then again by 22. 3 days later Fever cover as 13-16 pt dogs in Connecticut 85@94.
iv) Sun beat Fever by 9 and then again by 22. 2 days later Fever cover as 13 pt dogs in Chicago 90@95.
v) Mercury beat Storm by 20 and then again by 5. 4 days later, Storm beat Sky 74-71.
vi) Storm beat Wings by 1 and then again by 5. 3 days later Wings cover as 9pt dogs vs Aces 92@84 (no Sabally).
This season, teams that lose back to back games to the same team are 6-0 ATS and 3-3 SU in their next game. The SU losses had lines of 9, 13 and 13+. This is also the most embarrassing back to back losses to the same team IMO. Not only is it the Lynx but you lost in both arenas and by dd both times. The Sun didn't even beat the Fever by dd both times.
@AussieDownUnder
No clue man. I know Phoenix is upset about their record but was her fit really that poor? 17/2/7/0.8/0.8 shooting above league average. This seems more to me like she wanted out but who knows. If that's the case, then maybe we will see a more cohesive group tonight than we have seen over the last few games. Furthermore, I'll hope that Dallas relaxes even more. win by 25+ and then play the Merc without Charles. Easy (I hope not)
Dallas won all 4 quarters against Indiana and Seattle won all 4 quarters against Washington which means every game today has a branch from this statistical tree. Here's what things look like from the Washington perspective (having lost all 4 quarters in the previous game and now going on the road as a dog).
:6-8 (-0.8,42.9%) ATS:9-5 (5.6,64.3%)6.43OU:11-3-0 (7.2,78.6%)163.14
SU:2-4 (-0.5,33.3%) ATS:4-2 (5.5,66.7%)6.5OU:6-0-0 (11.9,100.0%)163.36
I'd like it more if the Aces weren't coming off such a disappointing loss. Then again, the bubble might be starting to burst for this team a bit. Chelsea Gray is the only starter averaging less than 30 minutes a night (29.3). Plum and Young avg 34+. They've got rest on their side coming into this one and the sting of giving up a 28 point victory. i said a few weeks back that as good as the Aces have been, they have won a lot of games by building leads and having teams give up. Chicago did not give up and things turned around pretty quick.
Road dogs finishing up a 3 game road trip at 0-2:
SU:15-32 (-7.0,31.9%) ATS:27-19-1 (0.1,58.7%)7.13OU:18-25-4 (-2.3,41.9%)155.6
Season SU:0-2 (-25.0,0.0%) ATS:0-2 (-13.5,0.0%)10.83OU:1-1-0 (-3.8,50.0%)161.83
Some more Mystics/Aces talk...
Home teams coming off a loss at home where they lead after the 1st quarter and at the half
All-time SU:8-4 (0.8,66.7%) ATS:7-4-1 (-1.3,63.6%)-2.17OU:7-4-1 (0.6,63.6%)162.38
Season SU:5-0 (13.4,100.0%) ATS:4-0-1 (10.6,100.0%)-3.92OU:2-3-0 (-6.6,40.0%)163.0
Just a half-time lead
All-time SU:10-6 (0.9,62.5%) ATS:9-6-1 (-1.2,60.0%)-2.12OU:9-6-1 (0.8,60.0%)162.03
Season SU:7-0 (15.0,100.0%) ATS:6-0-1 (10.6,100.0%)-5.06OU:2-5-0 (-12.1,28.6%)162.25
SPARKS@STORM
Sparks really struggled to take advantage of the matchups in the paint against Chicago which was disappointing considering the Sky give up 38.5 pitp per game (11th). The Storm are only one position better and tied with Dallas at 37.9 per game. Will the Sparks take advantage tonight? These two teams met a little over a month ago in a very similar situation. Sparks visiting as 8 point dogs and Chiney didn't play (she is questionable tonight, last I saw). They lost by 3 and scored 46 of their 80 points in the paint. Storm still missing Russell as well which makes them even weaker inside.
Back to back big wins for the Storm no doubt. Liberty and Mystics are in the bottom half for pitp whereas Connecticut which is responsible for 2 of Seattle's 3 losses in June is 3rd with 38.8 per game. LA is still 1st with 40.5 per game. Two games remain in June for Seattle; this one tonight and hosting the Aces on the 29th. Might be a bit too far ahead but Seattle almost dropped one to Minnesota about ten days ago when they had the Sun coming up in 3 days. The Lynx scored 48 of their 79 points for that game in the paint and lost by just 2. A lot of that damage also came from the wings so it doesn't have to be Cambage tonight.
I like the fact that there are two former Storm on this Sparks squad. The team is not likely to believe this is going to be a successful season so you've got to look for other reasons why they might care. Playing your former team is always "fun", especially as the visitor. Notably, in their first trip back, Katie was 0/5 in 9 minutes and held scoreless. Canada wasn't much better in 28 minutes with 6/4/3 on 2/5. Cambage had 25 in that game and I simply cannot count on her to do that again but I will put my faith in the former Storm players to play a lot better.
Road dogs off a loss at home of more than 20 points.
All-time SU:11-29 (-6.3,27.5%) ATS:21-17-2 (2.2,55.3%)8.53OU:27-13-0 (5.0,67.5%)159.75
Season SU:1-3 (-3.5,25.0%) ATS:3-1 (5.0,75.0%)8.4OU:4-0-0 (13.2,100.0%)159.4
Reports of Tina joining the Storm are enough to put me over the edge with the Sparks. Apparently I don’t care about my heart.
I just think it might be a few too many distractions concerning the future with an embarrassed team coming to town that matches up well and sports two Storm players from last year
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