04/06/22

14-14 +12.15U

The free throw giveth and the free throw taketh away. Thank the lord for fouls before the inbounds. Still surprised the Mercury collapsed like that in the 4th but I will take the cover and not look back. 

No ball today 

How does tomorrow look? 

LYNX@LIBERTY

Lynx on a two game losing streak (2-8) and Liberty on a two game WINNING streak (???) (3-7). These two teams met met in Minnesota less than two weeks ago. New York actually had a two point lead headed into the 4th but failed to cover the 5 point spread (I remember because I had NY ;) ) That is Minnesota's only home win and they obviously haven't been much better on the road. It was Rebecca Allen's best game so far this season and the only time she has scored over 20 in ten games. The same can be said for Natasha Howard. Liberty have struggled to score this season and a lot of it boils down to their shooting numbers. I see that as the main reason for their 3-7 record, which isn't good but probably should be worse? Pythagorean wins has them at 2. Shooting-wise they are 12th in FG%, 11th in 3pt FG%, 10th in True Shooting %, 12th in Effective FG%, and 12th for Offensive Rating. For a team with some established scorers like Allen, Howard, and Ionescu it's difficult to understand exactly what is happening. Sabrina has been open about the double teams affecting her play and I believe it. She should get more and more comfortable as the season goes on. After scoring in single digits for 3 out of 4 games between May 17th and May 29th (the 4th just a 10 point outing), Sabrina has put up 23 and 24 in her last two games (Liberty victories). She also had 25 in their season opening victory against the Sun. As she goes, so do the Liberty. 31 in a 6 point OT loss against the Fever and almost a triple double (10/9/7) in their other 6 point loss at the hands of the Lynx. During their losing streak, Han Xu appeared to be their best player at points. In their last two games (wins), she has played the least minutes of the season since her 9 minute debut and failed to reach double digit scoring. Also the only two times this season. I note this only to say that this team certainly has not "put it all together" yet.

What to say about the Lynx? They've had two single digit losses since beating NY. Now they come to town to finish up the season series with back to back games. They will be better rested than the Liberty and should be hungrier. How much do bottom feeding teams care about interconference series'? Probably not much. How much do teams care about having the worst record in the league? Hopefully a bit more. I am really interested to see where the line ends up for this one. Presumably the Liberty are/were travelling back home today. Not a long trip but still travel. Minnesota hasn't played since Wednesday in Atlanta and it looks like they made the trip to NY early with shoot around in their building this morning. 

Ultimately, this could end up a wait and see for me. Wait and see who wins this game on the 5th and go the other way on the 7th. Thoughts welcome.

I will try to post about the rest of the games throughout the day.

FEVER@DREAM

Two fast paced teams (2nd, 3rd). The Dream's style of play lends itself to very erratic scores. They have the most turnovers per game in the league but also boast the league's best defensive rating. They have the second lowest offensive rating but play at a fast pace and shoot the 3 pretty well. All of this is a good recipe for a blowout one way or the other and we have seen this losing by 23 vs LV, winning by 22 at IND, losing by 20 at WSH, winning by 27 vs PHX. Indiana was playing inspired ball when Knox first took over but I think they have calmed down a bit, especially after losing two straight. a 13 point loss in NY has to feel bad with the way that team had been playing but it really seemed like fatigue as they faded in the 2h the night before vs Washington and then did the same on the back to back. Indiana should be well rested for this one. Fever have 3 wins. 1 in the first game for Knox coaching and the other two were against the Liberty and Lynx. Atlanta holds a 2-0 lead in the season series thanks to back to back victories in Indiana mid May. Fever scored 79 in both games. Dream scored 85 in the first and 101 in the second. Actually, the only two games where Atlanta has scored 85 or more (ya 84 against Minnesota haha and 81 against PHX but still their two highest scoring games this season are against Indiana).`

I am leaning Fever for a few reasons. Two game losing streak and fresh off a loss to the Liberty. I believe fatigue played a large role in both these losses for a team that loves to run but they come into this one on 3 nights rest compared to just 1 for Atlanta. Indiana has also played the most games in the league at 12. That 3-9 record is worse than it looks with only 20 games remaining. It may be a tall order with both remaining games of the series scheduled in Atlanta but a series split starts tomorrow if the Fever can manage. I tend to favour the road team in these early starts as I feel they are more focused in this position. Kind of like when I used to have friends over to watch Redzone on Sundays. They'd show up with jerseys on and snacks and beer (ready to go). I would be rolling out of bed and tinkering with my fantasy lineup. It doesn't always go this way but it is human nature.

Fever are so freaking young but they honestly appear to have drafted 4 solid contributors in this last draft. I am personally in love with Engstler's motor. She is the type of player that can really shift momentum and I think Indiana will need her physicality to stand a chance against Atlanta. As a note, Nalyssa Smith missed that 22 point beatdown. Rhyne Howard has received a lot of praise (deservedly so), but for four other players drafted this year (one right after her) I think this is more than just Fever revenge against Atlanta. This is other 2022 rookies revenge against Rhyne.

SUN@STORM

Seattle looked bad last game. Stewie is an absolute monster (my pick for MVP) but it was nowhere near enough. If they don't get bodies back tomorrow, I don't really see how you can back them. I said yesterday they don't have any impressive wins and the bad losses are mounting. Stewart was also in that game way longer than she should have been, considering the score in the 4th. Sun were in a tight spot and still battled, even picking up the win with a 15-3 run late in the 4th. Ever since I said I wasn't impressed by this Sun team, they have been earning my respect. This is the end of a tiring four game road trip so we'll have to see what they have left in the tank for Seattle. 3rd game in 4 nights. 4th game in 6 nights. All fast-paced, physical, and emotional games. Maybe this is where they fall flat but it's a hard team to bet against right now.

SPARKS@MERCURY

Merc losing streak now sits at 7 after a valiant (short-handed) effort last night. It remains to be seen if Tina Charles will be available tomorrow. Even without her, Turner's individual defense has been good and I think she could keep Cambage relatively in check. The Sparks shouldn't scare them. They were in LA like ten days ago without Peddy or Cunningham and lost by just 5. The Sparks were on a 5 game losing streak for that game (PHX 3L) but come into this one having won two nail biters in a row. Merc put a lot into last night's game and I am a bit worried about their ability to get up again even if it isn't as difficult of a challenge. I will likely go back and forth with this one an may ultimately stay away. That win is coming for the Merc and it would suck to miss it but tomorrow's line will determine how much. Cards on the table; I am not a fan of this Sparks team and cannot see myself betting on them often. With poor defense on both sides, maybe the play here will just be on the OVER.  

MYSTICS@SKY

Ok at this point in the season, losing to the Liberty feels bad. Not that I necessarily think that team's pieces are as bad as what they have put together so far but the 12 point line kind of tells you everything you need to know about how that team is perceived right now. Watching the game, Washington just did not bring any energy to this fight and the longer that went on the more the Liberty confidence grew. I had a feeling they would be looking forward to this game in Chicago but I think I underestimated how much, especially since the next two games are @Sky and vsSky. Chicago won the first game of this season series about two weeks ago in Washington. Now Washington has a chance to even the score. Not all season series matter to all teams but teams seeking a championship like Washington should care about the series with the defending champs. Not only that, but a win here would move Washington up to 2nd in the east and Chicago down to 3rd. If it isn't obvious by now, most of the time all I really wanna figure out is who wants it more. Chicago has won two in a row and leads the season series. Washington just lost to the Liberty. Mystics want it more.

No Delle Donne tomorrow but Clark could return. Definite wrench in the mix. This team is comfortable playing without Elena but I don't think Chicago is the type of team to relax from that news. 

Great write ups Lippy. Saw that Ezi and Bird are cleared to play tomorrow so Storm at full force to play the Sun

WINGS@ACES

Aces are banged up after that loss. Jackie Young is out and Chelsea Gray is questionable. Normally this is a spot where I look to back a team like LV but I really wish they weren't playing Dallas. This is a very important stretch for the Wings and with these injuries this could be their best shot at picking up a win against the hottest team in the league. Then again, it is the only game of the 3 between them that will be played in LV. Is that important for LV? Will it bother Dallas? This Wings team is 5-2 on the road and has played 70% of their games away from home. They're probably more comfortable in other buildings than their own right now. Despite being in 2nd place, the Aces still lead the Wings by 2.5 games. Whether they get the win tomorrow in LV or on the 15th in Dallas, they need to pick one up if they have any chance at catching them. The Storm will be in a similar situation against this Wings team come June 10th/12th especially if Dallas can get the win in LV tomorrow. LV gets 5 days off after tomorrow so even if they are down two valuable players, Becky should be okay to shorten the rotation for one game. Reasons to back both sides. Aces are the better team but hurting. Might not touch this one either and just let the result guide me in future games.

@AussieDownUnder

 Ah thanks for the support and sharing info. Maybe we get their first impressive win tomorrow 

Great stuff 

@ThaFazz

 Thanks Fazz

Thanks lippyleans for your in depth analysis! Looking forward to your leans!! 

@Vmonkey

  Nice to meet ya