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How to hit 70% (or better) in MLB using Teamrankings.com

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Posted: #351

Good morning, folks

I have good news and I have bad news. The bad news: we have a problem. The good news: the problem has a solution

To better illustrate the point I will try to make, I will use an example: the Cleveland / Oakland series which ended last night. Below, you will find a list of the 3 games along with the starting pitchers and their ERA as calculated by Sagarin:

CLE   Westbrook   6.48                                                      OAK   Duchscherer   2.75

CLE   Carmona   2.27                                                        OAK   Anderson   2.10

CLE   Masterson   4.81                                                       OAK   Gonzalez   4.22

Looking at the 3 games, we can see that OAK had a significant pitching advantage in Game 1 and Game 3. It turns out OAK won Game 1 and Game 3 and lost Game 2.

Because OAK lost Game 2, the loss affected their power ratings and OAK was nolonger meeting the PR advantage requirement the following day because of the loss the previous night and also because of the volatility.

What I am suggesting we do so that we don't miss out on games like that is expand the field we are working with from 5 teams to 10 teams.

The rules have not changed. All we are doing is adding 5 teams to the list and working with 10 teams instead of 5.

 
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Posted: #352
I honestly think they had just as much a pitching advantage in Game 2 as they did in Game 3 - but I do see your point.  Still, expanding it that much, to me, seems to defeat the purpose of narrowing it down.  We don't want to make it work to fit winners that are just outside the criteria.  Just like there will be a few losses within the criteria, there will be a few wins by teams that are on the outside looking in.  Remember, some of us liked CWS better than MIN for yesterday's system pick and that hit.

I like it the way it is with 5 teams.  However, when we dissect the 5 teams we choose on each series opener, we should keep those series on our radar even if they dip out of the PR requirement.

So, for example - we take a look at the top 5 series for these next couple of days and figure out the best pitching matchup for each.  If we decide we like the pitching matchup for the last game of a series, we keep that game in mind regardless of whether or not a team meets the PR on that day & add it to our list of options when that day comes.  So, in essence, we're outlining our next 3-4 days of options every Monday and Friday.

I feel like this might confuse some people - let me know if I seem to have rambled.  It makes sense in my head, but that's not saying much...haha.
 
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Posted: #353

Quote Originally Posted by SixTen:

I honestly think they had just as much a pitching advantage in Game 2 as they did in Game 3 - but I do see your point.  Still, expanding it that much, to me, seems to defeat the purpose of narrowing it down.  We don't want to make it work to fit winners that are just outside the criteria.  Just like there will be a few losses within the criteria, there will be a few wins by teams that are on the outside looking in.  Remember, some of us liked CWS better than MIN for yesterday's system pick and that hit.

I like it the way it is with 5 teams.  However, when we dissect the 5 teams we choose on each series opener, we should keep those series on our radar even if they dip out of the PR requirement.

So, for example - we take a look at the top 5 series for these next couple of days and figure out the best pitching matchup for each.  If we decide we like the pitching matchup for the last game of a series, we keep that game in mind regardless of whether or not a team meets the PR on that day & add it to our list of options when that day comes.  So, in essence, we're outlining our next 3-4 days of options every Monday and Friday.

I feel like this might confuse some people - let me know if I seem to have rambled.  It makes sense in my head, but that's not saying much...haha.

 

You're not rambling at all. I agree with what you are saying. My concern is that 1 game should not affect the overall stats of any team that much.

When it does, that's when we know volatility is a problem.

Working with 5 teams or 10 will not change the idea behind this approach which consists of looking for teams who are fundamentally better than their opponent.

Working with 5 teams only right now may force us to jump from one team to another on a daily basis when we should be giving that team a chance to win

Let's say for example Boston has a great pitching advantage on Wednesday and let's suppose Boston takes a beating on Tuesday, Boston may nolonger meet the PR advantage requirement on Wednesday and you won't be able to bet on Boston because of that.

If we increase the field, Boston may still qualify (just an example).

You see where I am going with this ?

 
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Posted: #354

Quote Originally Posted by SixTen:

I honestly think they had just as much a pitching advantage in Game 2 as they did in Game 3 - but I do see your point.  Still, expanding it that much, to me, seems to defeat the purpose of narrowing it down.  We don't want to make it work to fit winners that are just outside the criteria.  Just like there will be a few losses within the criteria, there will be a few wins by teams that are on the outside looking in.  Remember, some of us liked CWS better than MIN for yesterday's system pick and that hit.

I like it the way it is with 5 teams.  However, when we dissect the 5 teams we choose on each series opener, we should keep those series on our radar even if they dip out of the PR requirement.

So, for example - we take a look at the top 5 series for these next couple of days and figure out the best pitching matchup for each.  If we decide we like the pitching matchup for the last game of a series, we keep that game in mind regardless of whether or not a team meets the PR on that day & add it to our list of options when that day comes.  So, in essence, we're outlining our next 3-4 days of options every Monday and Friday.

I feel like this might confuse some people - let me know if I seem to have rambled.  It makes sense in my head, but that's not saying much...haha.

 

It looks like I missed a few points you made on your thread. We can keep looking for 5 teams daily and whether the team nolonger meets the requirement the following day, it is still considered

Yeah that will work

 
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Posted: #355
YES IT MAKES SENSE AS THE PR CHANGES ALOT.
 
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Posted: #356
I think we're going about the same end result just in a little bit of a different way.

Remember, the volatility works both ways.  Someone outside the PR requirement today may have a huge win and be in the top-5 tomorrow.  Also, like you've said, the volatility will lessen over time so I don't think this will be a long-standing issue.  To me, sticking with the top 5 seems to be a better barometer of the system.

Using your Boston example, let's say we look at the top 5 upcoming series & decide BOS has the heavy pitching advantage on Wed.  What I'm saying is, regardless of the result of the first two games, we should keep that specific game on our radar and include it for our Wed choices regardless of where they are in the PR that day.  This way, we'll be sifting through just 5 teams if Boston is still there or 6 if they fall out.  We'll be avoiding 10 regardless.
 
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Posted: #357
Quote Originally Posted by Nabil:

 

It looks like I missed a few points you made on your thread. We can keep looking for 5 teams daily and whether the team nolonger meets the requirement the following day, it is still considered

Yeah that will work



BINGO


 
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Posted: #358
I came up with the play today is going to be LAA on m/l and r/l. Any thoughts?
 
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Posted: #359

Teams with the biggest PR advantage for 04/26:

* Colorado: +8.1

* NY Mets: +4.0     

* Boston: +3.5     

* Washington: +2.7     

* Milwaukee: +2.2     

 

NY Yankees and Minnesota are not playing today

 
Legend
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Posted: #360
LAA are 2.7 ?
 
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Posted: #361
Quote Originally Posted by capskip:

I came up with the play today is going to be LAA on m/l and r/l. Any thoughts?


LAA are only +1.7.  I do like the pick, but it doesn't fit the system and that's what we're trying to work within here.

I am officially in on the Red Sox -1.  I honestly don't think either of the other two pitching matchups are worthy of consideration.

I'll post the matchups for the 5 series we're looking at in a few.
 
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Posted: #362

Quote Originally Posted by capskip:

LAA are 2.7 ?

 

Cleveland: 98.4

LA Angels: 100.1

Difference: 1.7

 

 
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Posted: #363

Quote Originally Posted by SixTen:



LAA are only +1.7.  I do like the pick, but it doesn't fit the system and that's what we're trying to work within here.

I am officially in on the Red Sox -1.  I honestly don't think either of the other two pitching matchups are worthy of consideration.

I'll post the matchups for the 5 series we're looking at in a few.

 

Take a look at Milwaukee and Washington if you would please

They meet the PR requirement for today

 
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Posted: #364
You are right SixTen.My mistake as i was using LAA at 101.1 instead of pr 100.1.Thanks
 
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Posted: #365

Brewers look good,but BIG price.If that ends up as the pick will use R/L.

 
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Posted: #366
Quote Originally Posted by capskip:

Brewers look good,but BIG price.If that ends up as the pick will use R/L.

 

I am leaning toward Milwaukee

I am tempted to play the runline.

Odds for the -1 spread: -160

A lot of chalk but Milwaukee looks good today

Still thinking about it

 
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Posted: #367
COL vs AZ
Hammel/Haren, Jimenez/Jackson, Smith/Benson

NYM vs LAD
Perez/Kuroda, Santana/Towers, Maine/Haeger

BOS @ TOR
Beckett/Eveland, Buchholz/Marcum, Lester/Cecil

WAS @ CUBS
Lannan/Silva, Hernandez/Gorzelanny, Atilano/Dempster

MIL vs PIT
Gallardo/Duke, Wolf/Burres, Maholm/Narveson


Starting tomorrow:

NYY @ BAL
Hughes/Millwood, Sabathia/Guthrie, Burnett/Matusz

MIN @ DET
Liriano/Verlander, Baker/Scherzer, Pavano/Willis
 
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Posted: #368

Will check back later today,but looks like i will stick with Brewers. BOL

 
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Posted: #369
Quote Originally Posted by capskip:

Will check back later today,but looks like i will stick with Brewers. BOL

 

Enjoy your day and will see you later

 
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Posted: #370
Nabil, remember that spreadsheet with the information for teams coming off sweeps we both got yesterday?  Well MIL just swept PIT, and 54% of the time last year the team that got swept took Game 1 of the next series between the two teams.

Trust me, MIL has every advantage here - mainly that they've won 21 STRAIGHT at home against PIT.  Zach Duke is probably the best P the Pirates have.  I'm not saying PIT will win, but these reasons might be enough to just steer clear of this game.

The Nats (Lannan vs Silva) is a pretty decent value with a +140 ML.  Silva is a horrible pitcher over his career, his numbers will level off soon.  Also, the Cubs don't hit that well against lefties.  I can't really argue with anyone who rolls the dice with the Nats tonight.
 
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Posted: #371

Quote Originally Posted by SixTen:

Nabil, remember that spreadsheet with the information for teams coming off sweeps we both got yesterday?  Well MIL just swept PIT, and 54% of the time last year the team that got swept took Game 1 of the next series between the two teams.

Trust me, MIL has every advantage here - mainly that they've won 21 STRAIGHT at home against PIT.  Zach Duke is probably the best P the Pirates have.  I'm not saying PIT will win, but these reasons might be enough to just steer clear of this game.

The Nats (Lannan vs Silva) is a pretty decent value with a +140 ML.  Silva is a horrible pitcher over his career, his numbers will level off soon.  Also, the Cubs don't hit that well against lefties.  I can't really argue with anyone who rolls the dice with the Nats tonight.

 

Check this out :

https://www.sportsbook.com/statfeed/statfeed.php?page=mlb/expanded&gameid=20100426MILWAUKEE&sit=1&back=1

Hard to ignore how poorly Duke performs when facing Milwaukee and how well Gallardo performs when facing Pittsburgh

 

 
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Posted: #372
im confused, taking mil +2.2, nats+2.7 I thought the system was taking + 5.0 or better teams with pitching advan. as a filter.  Why take the nats/brewers?
 
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Posted: #373

Quote Originally Posted by DrRenob:

im confused, taking mil +2.2, nats+2.7 I thought the system was taking + 5.0 or better teams with pitching advan. as a filter.  Why take the nats/brewers?

 

You may have missed the rules listed on Page 8. They should remove your confusion.

If not, let us know

 
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Posted: #374

hey thanks Nabil, appreciate the info and work you've done. i'm gonna jump on today with a nice bet on the brew crew.

 
 
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Posted: #375
Quote Originally Posted by DrRenob:

hey thanks Nabil, appreciate the info and work you've done. i'm gonna jump on today with a nice bet on the brew crew.

 

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