Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how

Too many people get caught up in streaks or prior performances in gambling.  Team put up x points last week, they beat so and so by 20 and this team lost by 15 so they will blow them out.  Vegas is not a bunch of dummies.  Whether it is year over year, week to week, or month to month they attempt to make corrections.  We need to account for those corrections in the right spots.  

A classic starting point is looking at a teams record the prior year against the spread.  If a team performed at an exceptional clip ATS, look for Vegas to attempt to make a correction the follow year.  This year the Colts, Seahawks, Rams, and Skins were 11-5 ATS.  One of things I will do going into next football season is to believe Vegas is going to try and correct this. This just one piece, but I will use that to pick spots against those 4 teams.  I am not saying to fade all 4 for 16 games.  I am saying I will use this as a piece of information when picks are involving those squads.  (Obviously there are teams that were awful ATS as well and I will find spots the following year they can be plays.)

Again it's only one small part, but figured I would throw it out there.  I am not sure if Mavin uses this or thinks like this, but it is something that has helped me.  I will try and post some other "think opposite" strategy points when I have time.

None of these by themselves make a play, but are all little pieces that I use to try and beat the books.

Good luck this evening fine gents.

What do you mean correct? Will they harden the lines against them or....? LVSC is the body that advises the books about the lines. At least the opening lines. After that there are traders that correct the lines. Elaborate on those details as they are vital to understand what's on your mind.

I believe I understand your thinking here. Basically you train yourself not to be easily influenced by past performance which would be the typical public frame of mind.  I know it's a bit more involved than that but I see your point and it's a good one.  Gambling strategies are always good to know. That's for posting

Great thread you have here Mavin. Thanks as well for all your hard work and for sharing your picks.  Good luck 

When I say correction, I am not talking about 50/50 money or anything like that.   Corrections can not swing too far on any given game because it opens up the middle. I am talking about a team's rating and how close the books stay true to the rating without opening themselves up.  

 I just looked up the 2011 records of the 4 teams I mentioned ATS.  Colts 6-10, Seahawks 10-5-1, Rams 3-13-1, and Skins 7-9.  3 of the 4 reversed their ATS fortunes year over year. My assumption is their year over year ratings were changed.

 Taking that information, I will be looking hard in 2013 at situations to fade the Seahawks.  I would not expect them to have a third straight winning year ATS.  However, I will take it one step further. As public perception sees them as a great cover team at home (7-1 this year), I would expect the oddsmakers to use Seattle's rating the following year and inflate it at home games as much as they can without leaving themselves open. This can allow for spot plays against the Seahawks at home next year.

I am rambling here a little, but hopefully some makes sense. I am having trouble putting into words how I use this.  I will try and expound over the weekend when I have more time.

I am open to your thoughts on this.  I have only turned the corner in gambling over the last few years and I owe more to money management than anything.  I can definitely expound on that. 

What I asked you and you did not answer is how practically will it happen? Will the lines be tougher so the teams you mentioned will fail to cover? Or are you saying no matter what - the odds making will stay the same in line evaluation (that by the way is based on computerized simulations based on 3 different systems called machines: NumberFire, TeamRankings and AccuScore), or are you implying that they will influence the games the way those teams will cover less? I want to tell you that your idea might be in a right direction but to implement that LVSC would have to set different criteria for making the lines. And that won't happen. As it did not happen with SA Spurs who were an ATS machine last season and remained such this season as well. Same goes for OKC *NBA of course). 

I am sorry, but I have been asked that already and don't have a time to repeat myself. It is not a two words story - you have to read through the whole thread (Yeah, I know...) and gradually you will note the pointers. It is a must. And will be beneficiary for you. 

Final: 

Final:

T'Wolves only committed 9 PF's and grabbed 32 boards

The Nuggets hit 4 out of 14 3 pointers and the T'Wolves only 1 out of 8.

And the T'Wolves are still ahead. It's Thursday. I will try to use that for our advantage.