Posted:
#11151
I see a lot of under plays todays but I do not like how publicly backed they are....
Brooklyn under 90 percent backed
Minny under 77 backed
spurs under 80 percent
Denver 59 percent
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
Posted:
#11152
Jpaco 51-49-2
BK Nets -14.5
cha is just bad and now that bk coming from a game that they shouldve won spread tells me no more fooling around for bk even its just cha
Under 195.5 BK Nets - CHA Bobcats
no way cha all of a sudden score crazy tonight after what they did at home jst really bad team and bk def is decent at home
MIN Timberwolves -6
they already beat det and even its b2b for min adjustment will be made since they shoulve won that game yesterday
BOL EVERYONE 
Posted:
#11165
Quote Originally Posted by eaglequill:
I cant believe how many people were on the under in the Denver game? All both teams do is run and gun. They are going to obliterate the 212 total.
I cant believe how many people were on the under in the Denver game? All both teams do is run and gun. They are going to obliterate the 212 total.
Where were you to talk us out of it?? lol 
I wasn't convinced ether but decided to do a experimental live bet. Kinda glad that I lost since I'm pretty sure that action is pure evil and if I had won I may have lost my money next time instead of the books
Posted:
#11166
I use live betting and it's a completely different instrument and shouldn't be confused as a hedging tool only. For me those days and in the playoffs 75% of the bets are live bets preplanned with reg bets taken. I've been throughout the whole development of that instrument by the books and will post whole chapter dedicated to it as I do feel that I have a vast experience on that. Just don't only play around with it because it's a fastest way to lose money if you get carried away without a preplanned strategy
Posted:
#11168
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:
Well gave back last nights live bet
Well gave back last nights live bet
This live bet is new to me, does anyone else use live betting strategy on the reg? Or should it be used purely as a hedging tool?
Turbo, I believe you have commented before on live betting, seeing as you can't sleep right now, any thoughts?? lol
Can't sleep right now? try ever lol
I use live betting as both a hedging tool and pre planned strategy to assist in projection of totals not really for spread although it does help you protect and try to middle.
For instance lets look at the Lakers Mavs game this week. If you are on the Under 207 or whatever you got and you see the game flow- shooting pct of both teams and you see a line in the 1q at 204 it starts to tell you that you are on the right side of the bet at the moment- if you keep tracking and it goes to 207 you have to keep a close eye then you see 201 game pace slowing down you keep to watch then before the half the line was 194 you know you have a good advantage to your position/bet. You can decide to middle with 10 pt gap or give it a little more time- or chose 2nd half lines or quarter lines at the start of each quarter.
As Mavin has said you have to have a plan going in. Don't know if this is what he means but I don't just use it to pick props or lines because I like them. I preplan to see if things are not going to be going my way. If you are confident in your position and you can find a 10-20 pt spread to that position you can try to do a box position to try and middle. It takes time to figure it out but I am not afraid of live betting or betting at all because of the use of live betting.
I alot of times don't like to bet if the game is not on live betting.
There is one thing that I am still trying to figure out and will ask for a discussion here at some point reg. totals as it relates to the psychology of over unders.
If you need me to explain this better on PM you can if you want to continue the live bet talk here let me know.
Cliff/Matt should be able to chime in on this.
Posted:
#11169
Yea I have only begun trying to experiment with live betting and I've already got burned a few times. I don't know how to approach it I guess. While watching a game I feel as if I know where it's going and then after I bet the complete opposite seems to happen haha. Looking forward to your input as well Mavin 
Posted:
#11170
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:
The probability of the outcome must be some thing like 75% with that high of juice or like you said have a strategy to lower the house edge.
The probability of the outcome must be some thing like 75% with that high of juice or like you said have a strategy to lower the house edge.
I can see how toxic this can be. Fast. I'd greatly appreciate the post Mavin, Thanx in advance
While I know Mavin wants to make sure you protect your bank roll... there are advantage to it. My first suggestion is (before the playoffs) try and paper bet every game that you like and try and track it with live betting, and see what works for you. You may come up with a great idea. I know that since I use live betting I can almost predict certain outcomes or at the very least protect my initial bet. I rather break even than roll the dice because I think am right, it is not about being right, it is about making money. Sure I roll the dice sometimes but that is a decision I make knowing what the risk reward is and what games I can afford and can't afford to ride on.
Hope this helps.
Posted:
#11171
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:
While I know Mavin wants to make sure you protect your bank roll... there are advantage to it. My first suggestion is (before the playoffs) try and paper bet every game that you like and try and track it with live betting, and see what works for you. You may come up with a great idea. I know that since I use live betting I can almost predict certain outcomes or at the very least protect my initial bet. I rather break even than roll the dice because I think am right, it is not about being right, it is about making money. Sure I roll the dice sometimes but that is a decision I make knowing what the risk reward is and what games I can afford and can't afford to ride on.
Hope this helps.
Every little bit helps my friend!
Hope you got in on that NCAA action!
Liking Michigan, whatever the line is
Posted:
#11173
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:
Every little bit helps my friend!
Hope you got in on that NCAA action!
Liking Michigan, whatever the line is
I did play the NCAA- got burned on the missed FT needed 5 or 6 pt win or more- and also missed the 1H over Bet and total under but reversed that on the second game.
Reviewing the games now to plan for Tuesday-
also looking at the first two games of the day tomorrow- key games and key rematches.
As for live betting the law of averages would tell you that if you use it to just straight on bet you are doing the same as you are doing when you pick lines that are not live but you are doing it at a more frequent clip and this means more opportunity to fail. I use it as a combined strategy to hedge and to track my picks and predicted results. For anything other than that you will notice that in the long run it will not work out well for you.
This is a test I ran by playing Poker at 24-32 straight non break steady action hours- both online (multiple tables) and live at the casino- The longer you play the more chance you have to lose. Pick your spots design a strategy and put it to work.
Not saying that you can't take a gamble live betting but should be recognized as that a gamble not capping, unless you are using live betting as a tool in your tool box to get good capping results.
Posted:
#11175
Quote Originally Posted by Cmcmahan:
Yea I have only begun trying to experiment with live betting and I've already got burned a few times. I don't know how to approach it I guess. While watching a game I feel as if I know where it's going and then after I bet the complete opposite seems to happen haha. Looking forward to your input as well Mavin
Yea I have only begun trying to experiment with live betting and I've already got burned a few times. I don't know how to approach it I guess. While watching a game I feel as if I know where it's going and then after I bet the complete opposite seems to happen haha. Looking forward to your input as well Mavin
We have all been there whether live or reg bets.
Device a plan going in, dont get caught up in the live game trying to predict use it as a tool.
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