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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how

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ashylarrymp

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 515

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 2:54 PM ET #10501

NCAA picks for today (if anyone cared):

Marquette+6- marquette games are ALWAYS down to the final seconds.. and marquettes well coached.

Ohio St-3- toughest bet of day in my opinion.. but i'll lean with the more experienced team.. fell Arizona might be more talented and have smarter coach.. BUT OSU was in final four last year, i'll trust them.

Syracuse+6: i know syracuse can be cold from time to time.. but their shooting well right now. i was impressed with them having to travel cross country and beat cal essentially at home (less than 2 hrs away from the stadium) and KILLED montana.. indiana will win.. but i feel syracuse is every bit as talented and if shots fall will stay close.

La Salle+4: i have la salle+4 and ML.. i feel they are the smaller team.. but these guards can shoot! been watching A10 basketball all year and this team is every bit as talented as Butler, VCU, temple and Stlouis.. wich st good too.. but if not ML.. i'd take the points all day in this matchup..

NBA picks shall come later! leaning dallas and phoenix.. win some $$ tonight

SunsDevils

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 1405

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 4:09 PM ET #10502

First of all, Matt, thanks for the worksheet. I need to sit down and figure out how to work it now, lol.

Turbo, with regards to RLM, I think part of the problem is reliable information. I use 2 sites to get an average %, as their opening odds and % on each side vary a lot. I do it by hand, but it would be awesome to be able to pull that info automatically, so it can be monitored more closely. Also,what's more interesting to me as how books react to number of points of RLM vs % of bettors on each side. Is RLM more successful when 70% and more on the other side? What is the success rate of RLM when it is kist .5 points vs a full point or 2 points? I think all these questions could help us understand books better. And of course, often times RLM is not really a RLM, because of line adjustments due to injuries and we don't get that data till much later.

greengiants

Rookie

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 526

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 4:26 PM ET #10503

Quote Originally Posted by SunsDevils:

First of all, Matt, thanks for the worksheet. I need to sit down and figure out how to work it now, lol.

Turbo, with regards to RLM, I think part of the problem is reliable information. I use 2 sites to get an average %, as their opening odds and % on each side vary a lot. I do it by hand, but it would be awesome to be able to pull that info automatically, so it can be monitored more closely. Also,what's more interesting to me as how books react to number of points of RLM vs % of bettors on each side. Is RLM more successful when 70% and more on the other side? What is the success rate of RLM when it is kist .5 points vs a full point or 2 points? I think all these questions could help us understand books better. And of course, often times RLM is not really a RLM, because of line adjustments due to injuries and we don't get that data till much later.

I use 4 to 5 sites including this one for public percentage and try and average it out also,I have been starting to take notice of the rlm pts spread also, I have the impression(initial impressions can be wrong, will have to take some notes and monitor to get some tru stats) that the small rlm's like a half point are trying to bait people into following the wrong play, rlm's where injuries are involved seem to be baits also.Just observations as i stated before will have to take notes and monitor for awhile

jackson0780

Rookie

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 611

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 4:29 PM ET #10504

Remember big time capers, last week all road teams covered last week, although one lost, they still had +7 Minn. be wary of who you bet, I see the exact opposite happening tonight.. We just gotta align the stars..

we are sometimes fooled by certain -1.5 teams, when it's goes bananas when everyone tries to predict it..

Lakers@ warriors - everyone on the slakers but bc of the +1

Clipppers@ mavericks -everyone on lob city bc it danced all day +1,-1 bc of cp3 in or out..

Mem@knicks- silimar scenarios +1,-1

Bucks@zicksers -1,+1 same trend diff result, Philly had so much rest and bucks were 2-0 against them, so the public pounded bucks for the easy -1

I was right on all these 4 but was scared to play the sixers bc of a heavy capper on the bucks..

Point is, vegas makes the pig look pretty, when at times it's the pig!! Don't be fooled today with the road teams.. Home teams usually have the edge in these cases.. They want you take the better team, or the easy line..

Play the Thursday TNT factor

I lean towards

Bucks+ whatever they give you bc they owe it to the lakers, now at home and they pretty much have the same record, lakers got theirs yesterday, tonight thier hi comes down!!

Dallas-3.5 looks trappp but they have been on thier home swing, they get the pacers on a b2b and want revenge from a 103-83 loss earlier this year. Depending on the way the side looks in the end I'm leaving Dallas..

Suns+2.5 everyone is all over kings, then again kings lost to suns @ kings, so series is 2-1 suns, and maybe kings owe them this one. But so what it's a division game and we all know the nba and how $h#% tens to go down...

I had like three AR plays all left with blazers last night, and I guess they never showed up... Waiti I never saw the game so the refs might've had something to do with it as well

Overall, I'm undecided on the last two, you could flip the coin.. But I think it's best to pick a road team ats just to CYA.. Sorry for the novel

Dubs03

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 1369

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 4:38 PM ET #10505

Quote Originally Posted by KaiserWilhelm:

Barcelona has already lost to a pityful team (Sociedad) this season, the difference is that they play once a week in LaLiga, whereas sometimes in the NBA they play 3 games in 4 nights. But this is not about soccer so I won't get deeper into that. I have been following for a long time now and I am amazed at the amount of effort and teamwork you guys put in. My most succesfull sport to bet in is soccer (maybe I will make a thread in the specific section as I realize this is only about American sports) , but especially due to this thread I was able to improve my NBA betting "skills" if one can say that. Looking forward to contribute to this thread and post a pick every now and then. (Don't worry I'll comply with the formating rules and reasoning right from the start).
My utmost respect to all cappers in here, Mavin for his insights into sports betting and his administrative work, and nbacasper for his 1st quarter panicking (you realize you are about to become a legend in one day right?

), gave me some good laughs. Mavin I will also visit the binary options thread, still in the process of enhancing my knowledge, but eventually I might need to ask you some more specific questions if thats okay?

At last I apologize for all grammar and spelling errors of mine, I am German and English is not my first language.

Good Luck everybody

Sorry to clog up this thread with a reply to this. I love the thread and I follow it daily and I cashed on the Thunder -15 pick yesterday, thank you very much...

In regards to Sociedad being terrible, what are you talking about?!? They currently sit 4th in La Liga (Champions League spot) (also haven't lost in 10 games) and they have a history of giving Barcelona fits especially at Sociedad. I highly doubt that La Liga is your specialty if you think Sociedad is a terrible team, you'd be down a pretty penny if you bet against them every game this year. I'm a footy snob and when I saw this, I had to reply.

Sorry guys for the clog, keep up the great work, look forward to cashing more winners from you guys!

Quote Originally Posted by KaiserWilhelm:

At last I apologize for all grammar and spelling errors of mine, I am German and English is not my first language.

Good Luck everybody

Turbovtk

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 1676

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 4:38 PM ET #10506

You are asking the right questions and headed in the right direction. Lets keep at it

BTW who is Matt you mean Cliff?

SunsDevils

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 1405

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 4:40 PM ET #10507

SunsDevils 28-31

SAC Kings -2

I am going back to the basics. Lost a bunch on RLMs last night and trends haven't been working. So, I am going back to just capping games by gut instinct. I know, very scientific. Well, the truth is that the Suns have finally given up. All the BS from the front office as how this was a playoff team and we are going to fight hard is over. For the first time in history of the franchise, they are purposely tanking. They are actions spoke louder than any words, when they decided to bench Dragic to give him some rest last night. Rest from what? Losing? They are officially working on tanking. So why win tonight against the second worst team in the Western Conference? And if both teams will try to play some young guys, I don't think the talent level is anywhere close.

jackson0780

Rookie

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 611

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 4:45 PM ET #10508

bukcs+2

Dallas-3.5

Kings -2- I dislike this one but taking it anyways

I don't expect credit if I go 3-0,

They already hold enough responsibility for all the action I'm giving them.. Please feel free to critique.. I come here to this thread to gain confidence on my plays, I might not be able to post everyday like I would like to bc of other things I gotta do, Besides trying to find consistent winners. I usually wait till the end to not let a line fool me early on during the day

we should be able to kill it today, only three games, easier to analyze as opposed to trying to choose from 12-14 games night in night out. Good luck everyone

Bucktown

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 35

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 4:51 PM ET #10509

Quote Originally Posted by greengiants:

I'm trying to gain a better understanding on RLM also. Can you list the 4 to 5 sites you use? Thanks.

Musicmatt1

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 442

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 4:57 PM ET #10510

Musicmatt1 45-48-1

LA Lakers -2

DAL Mavericks -3.5

PHO Suns +2

Both the Lakers and the Mavericks need wins bad. I think the chase for that 8th seed in the West is going to heat up. I would say this puts more pressure on the teams, but you won't hear me crying for professional athletes. That stuff happens in college. The Bucks benching of Jennings last night did not seem to fair well with Jennings and I see it being a distraction (or else I would hate to go against a team that has lost 5 straight at home).

Picking the Suns because there is no pride factor for winning in Phoenix for the Kings. Beating the Warriors on the road equals pride for a team out of the Playoff hunt. Even if they lose tonight, the Kings can hang on the glory of last night. It also seems the Kings play to their opponents level if you look at their last 10 game stretch, sure they beat the Warriors last night, but the game before that they lost to the 76ers in Sacremento?

greengiants

Rookie

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 526

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 5:01 PM ET #10511

Quote Originally Posted by Bucktown:

I'm trying to gain a better understanding on RLM also. Can you list the 4 to 5 sites you use? Thanks.

I'm not sure cover's allows us to post that info, so you can do a google search of public betting percentages and I'm sure you will find some free sites( i use cover's also) and there are some sites that you have to pay for the info...

SunsDevils

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 1405

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 5:02 PM ET #10512

Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:

You are asking the right questions and headed in the right direction. Lets keep at it

BTW who is Matt you mean Cliff?

MusicMatt1 is Cliff? Sorry, I just assumed it was Matt.

ashylarrymp

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 515

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 5:16 PM ET #10513

AshyLarryMP 48-42-2:

DAL Mavericks -3.5

MIL Bucks +2

PHO Suns +2

pacers on a b2b.. just won on the road yesterday.. (don't have stats turbo) but feel when teams win the first leg of a b2b... they tend to let down a little on the 2nd part and vise versa.. mavs are rolling as of late and dirk stressed the importance of getting back to .500 on season and how big this game is. feel dallas is ready.

bucks i'm simply just fading the lakers.. i had the twolves yesterday.. and i believe that the Lakers are still 14-23 on the road and both teams on b2b.. but atleast one is returning home..and bucks aren't playing better than the twolves.. but are the better team and i feel will want to bounce back tonight as they'll get up to play the lakers, as opposed to the lakers who were happy with win yesterday, i know kobe will show up. dont know if the others will.. feel bucks as a team pull this out.

Suns are also simply fading the kings.. as stated earlier, suns have beaten kings twice on season already and are an underdog to a team that albeit won last night.. are still 7-30 on the road!! my writeups have been consistent today, same theory as pacers and lakers, these teams all won yesterday and are all playing teams that either lost yesterday, or are rested.. i'm siding with the angrier, more desperate home teams tonight. well suns aren't more desperate.. but they are every bit capable of a win tonight.

good luck men! busy day today with this, madness and hockey.

Turbovtk

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 1676

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 5:34 PM ET #10514

Quote Originally Posted by SunsDevils:

MusicMatt1 is Cliff? Sorry, I just assumed it was Matt.

He is Matt but he is also Cliff

elmenhorster

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 65

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 5:44 PM ET #10515

from what i can see indy +3 public fade and pho +3.5 to avoid buzzerbeaters,

ashylarrymp

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 515

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 5:48 PM ET #10516

some sites have bucks at +1.5 now.. would be RLM but could always go back to 2 at gametime.. still time.

nbacasper

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 230

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 6:24 PM ET #10517

Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:

Musicmatt1 45-48-1

LA Lakers -2

DAL Mavericks -3.5

PHO Suns +2

So, you say Phoenix(23-49 with 16-20 at home), worst team in west conference, are the same as Philadelphia playing at home?(28-43 with 21-17 at home). Normal kings lost against philadelphia, that can happen, but phoenix?? Comparing teams, do you really think kings can lose vs phoenix?? Considering they defeat last night warriors without problems all game leading?. If that´s the case, then Nba is like flipping a coin xDDDDD

Lakers vs Bucks, well, considering milwaukee suk, and lakers have Gasol back in the lineup... i dont see how they can lose against bucks, so im with you in that play.

And dallas, well, you know what happend last night with indiana vs rockets. it was supposed to be an easy win for rockets, but of course rockets SUKKKKKKKKKKK big time and all the time are screwing parlays, and they won vs them, so, well, hope you are right, because dallas are hot, and they play at home, and indiana played yesterday, with you too in that play.

The only one im not sure, is phoenix.... for me, kings are stronger than phoenix, i dont see how they can lose, but of course you know more than me, and you may be right

Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:

Musicmatt1 45-48-1

LA Lakers -2

DAL Mavericks -3.5

PHO Suns +2

Eryximaque

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 209

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 6:46 PM ET #10518

Eryximaque 34-31-1

Under 193.5 DAL Mavericks-IND Pacers

Pacers strong def with PPG opponent below 100 last 9 games

They will force Mavs to 3pts, and Mavs are not really the best on it.

West is back, he could worry Mavs, then, they should have to focus on defense.

Mavs are fighting to playoff, they know tonight will be hard, struggling offensively.

Last 5 Dallas games are over, i dont like theses streaks on total, tonight could be the end.

KingMidasTouch

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 432

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 6:53 PM ET #10519

For those who also like to bet Euroleague - you're welcome to visit my thread. I had 4 games picked.

We've got 2 out of 4 already and the other two will be played tomorrow.

CSKA won the first half 44-28 and Panathinaikos won the game 82-60

Panathinaikos -7.5 +1000 euros

CSKA -3 First Half +1000 euros

2-0

+2000 euros

_______________________________________________________

40-16

+22,890 €

KingMidasTouch

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 432

Posted: Mar. 28, 2013 - 6:57 PM ET #10520

I hope IO don't cross any lines here Mavin. I do all this with respect to you and following your philosophy about money management and self discipline. I truly think you're a sports handicapping guru who sacrificed his own sports handicapping time for teaching the rest of us and I'm glad to display the results not for bragging purposes but to show the appreciation.

Mavin