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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how

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Posted: #10476
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

BTW, Lopel, you know that only reason you made it into the top four is your avatar , right?

Haha I'll take it 
 
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Posted: #10477
nba is the most unpredictable sport ever..... how the hell warriors cant win @home vs kings beeing a -9 points favourites....... nba is so fixed.

When you see F.C. Barcelona(Messi, and so on), losing vs weak teams, you tell me.

Nba is all fixes
 
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Posted: #10478
Quote Originally Posted by Bucktown:


I think you just might hit it! The games I would be concerned about are the last two.  Michigan looking good and I think Florida's press is going to wreck havoc on FGC. 

I took FGC because of the high they are riding and there will be effort and I think that when Florida does not knock down the 3s they become vulnerable to the fast break.

Kansas has a nice inside game and again for Michigan is the 3s not sure what will happen no one can be. But at the end of the day I hope the hard games are the last two as if I am one 1 game away I can bet the other way and win some. Lets see if it gets that far. 
 
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Posted: #10479
unbelievable last night. memphis was the right call. period.

if mark gasol didnt come back, grizzlies should have won. oh well. still 3-1 last 3 days.

tough day for alot of good cappers on covers.


 
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Posted: #10480

Quote Originally Posted by SunsDevils:

Here is the RLM recap for today.

BOS CLE O194.5 - Loss

Opened at 193.5 and it went to 197 with 60% on the under. The game ended at 185, way below the opening line.

ORL CHA O199.5 - Win

Opened at 197.5, got to 201.5 with 57% on the under. 222 points total, way above the projected total.

LAC NO U187 - Loss

Opened at 189, the line dropped 2 points in the middle of the day with 67% on over. The game ended with 196 points.

NYK MEM U186.5 - Loss.

The line got to 184.5 before the game with 69% on the over. Total wasn't even close again with 209 points scored.

Total RLMs went 1-3 with

TOR +2.5 ATL -  Loss.
Opened TOR +3, with 66% on ATL. ATL won by 19.

HOU -6 IND - Loss
Opened -4.5, was -6 by the opening tip. 54% is on IND. IND wins by +9, covering by 15.


MIN +4.5 LAL - Win

Lakers were -5 at the opening line. With 69% on them, the line moved to 4.5. Hornets found the way to cover at the of the game and lose by 3.

NOH +5.5 LAC - Loss

Opened at -6 or -7 at some places, the line got to -5.5 with 67% on the Clippers. LAC won by 14, easily covering.

MEM -1 NYK - Loss

NYK was 1pt favorite at the opening, then changed to pk, and MEM -1 before tip off. 70%+ on the Knicks. And while Memphis made a run in the second half, but not enough as NY wins by 7.


RLM ATS 1-4. Horrible night for Vegas and those like me who played these RLMs.

you and me both brother!

 
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Posted: #10481
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

Now on a serious note - baseball is around the corner and preparations are in place. Start sharpening the pencils and getting the notebooks ready. 
And good luck on tomorrows College Hoops. I don't mind you posting here your picks for all to benefit

bought a fresh notebook just for baseball, pencil is sharpened, ready to go Mavin!!Can't wait for sunday night and even better monday all day!!

 
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Posted: #10482
Quote Originally Posted by SunsDevils:

Here is the RLM recap for today.

BOS CLE O194.5 - Loss

Opened at 193.5 and it went to 197 with 60% on the under. The game ended at 185, way below the opening line.

ORL CHA O199.5 - Win

Opened at 197.5, got to 201.5 with 57% on the under. 222 points total, way above the projected total.

LAC NO U187 - Loss

Opened at 189, the line dropped 2 points in the middle of the day with 67% on over. The game ended with 196 points.

NYK MEM U186.5 - Loss.

The line got to 184.5 before the game with 69% on the over. Total wasn't even close again with 209 points scored.

Total RLMs went 1-3 with

TOR +2.5 ATL -  Loss.
Opened TOR +3, with 66% on ATL. ATL won by 19.

HOU -6 IND - Loss
Opened -4.5, was -6 by the opening tip. 54% is on IND. IND wins by +9, covering by 15.


MIN +4.5 LAL - Win

Lakers were -5 at the opening line. With 69% on them, the line moved to 4.5. Hornets found the way to cover at the of the game and lose by 3.

NOH +5.5 LAC - Loss

Opened at -6 or -7 at some places, the line got to -5.5 with 67% on the Clippers. LAC won by 14, easily covering.

MEM -1 NYK - Loss

NYK was 1pt favorite at the opening, then changed to pk, and MEM -1 before tip off. 70%+ on the Knicks. And while Memphis made a run in the second half, but not enough as NY wins by 7.


RLM ATS 1-4. Horrible night for Vegas and those like me who played these RLMs.

The reason I asked for this data is because I have been running these numbers in my head and come to a 30-40% win rate on most days- I don't think that it is this easy anymore to just rely on RLMs. Specially at the end of the season where the points for non playoff bound teams will be all over the place- either low because lack of effort or way high for lack of defense.

P.S On the lakers you mean timberwolves.
 
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Posted: #10483
Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:


hope this counts for my start run here!

Not unless someone re formatted this.
 
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Posted: #10484
Quote Originally Posted by nbacasper:

nba is the most unpredictable sport ever..... how the hell warriors cant win @home vs kings beeing a -9 points favourites....... nba is so fixed.

When you see F.C. Barcelona(Messi, and so on), losing vs weak teams, you tell me.

Nba is all fixes

Barcelona has already lost to a pityful team (Sociedad) this season, the difference is that they play once a week in LaLiga, whereas sometimes in the NBA they play 3 games in 4 nights. But this is not about soccer so I won't get deeper into that. I have been following for a long time now and I am amazed at the amount of effort and teamwork you guys put in. My most succesfull sport to bet in is soccer (maybe I will make a thread in the specific section as I realize this is only about American sports) , but especially due to this thread I was able to improve my NBA betting "skills" if one can say that. Looking forward to contribute to this thread and post a pick every now and then. (Don't worry I'll comply with the formating rules and reasoning right from the start).
My utmost respect to all cappers in here, Mavin for his insights into sports betting and his administrative work, and nbacasper for his 1st quarter panicking (you realize you are about to become a legend in one day right?), gave me some good laughs. Mavin I will also visit the binary options thread, still in the process of enhancing my knowledge, but eventually I might need to ask you some more specific questions if thats okay? 

At last I apologize for all grammar and spelling errors of mine, I am German and English is not my first language.

Good Luck everybody
 
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Posted: #10485
Quote Originally Posted by nbacasper:

nba is the most unpredictable sport ever..... how the hell warriors cant win @home vs kings beeing a -9 points favourites....... nba is so fixed.

When you see F.C. Barcelona(Messi, and so on), losing vs weak teams, you tell me.

Nba is all fixes

Barcelona has already lost to a pityful team (Sociedad) this season, the difference is that they play once a week in LaLiga, whereas sometimes in the NBA they play 3 games in 4 nights. But this is not about soccer so I won't get deeper into that. I have been following for a long time now and I am amazed at the amount of effort and teamwork you guys put in. My most succesfull sport to bet in is soccer (maybe I will make a thread in the specific section as I realize this is only about American sports) , but especially due to this thread I was able to improve my NBA betting "skills" if one can say that. Looking forward to contribute to this thread and post a pick every now and then. (Don't worry I'll comply with the formating rules and reasoning right from the start).
My utmost respect to all cappers in here, Mavin for his insights into sports betting and his administrative work, and nbacasper for his 1st quarter panicking (you realize you are about to become a legend in one day right?), gave me some good laughs. Mavin I will also visit the binary options thread, still in the process of enhancing my knowledge, but eventually I might need to ask you some more specific questions if thats okay? 

At last I apologize for all grammar and spelling errors of mine, I am German and English is not my first language.

Good Luck everybody
 
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Posted: #10486
bad beat yestereday on those rlm
 
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Posted: #10487
Quote Originally Posted by infamous-mobb:

unbelievable last night. memphis was the right call. period.

if mark gasol didnt come back, grizzlies should have won. oh well. still 3-1 last 3 days.

tough day for alot of good cappers on covers.



While if it was or was not the right call can be determined by the outcome (most people see it this way)

The right call does not equal = the right outcome. No one knows what will happen when will happen or why it will happen. 

The right outcome can happen when you pick something and it turns out to go your way.

The right CALL is when the right outcome happens because of what you said. That being said GASOL was not the issue in the game. He was not in the Wizzard game and look how that turned out.

The right CALL was made by those that saw the trends (don't fight the trend sure you can find the busted trend game ( I do this at times ) but the truth (and history will back this up) is that you don't fight city hall, you don't fight the FED, you don't fight the trend... YOU ROLL WITH THEM. Don't try to find the day the trend will break, wait for it to break and spot the new trend. This my view from my options and equities mindset. 

This is the equivalent of getting in front of a speeding train, you can't stop it, the operator can't stop it he can only slow it down. What you have to wait if for that train to start losing steam on an up hill and it's own weight start to take it backwards in the opposite direction then you ride down with it and once it starts riding down wait for the ground to level and the slide will start to slow down then the operator can turn on the engines and move it forward and maybe up the hill again. This is how economics and markets work this is how sports work nothing goes up forever and while predicting a market crash or the inflation of a bubble can make you a SLOM over time you can only predict so many of them, and it is fine to do this but not by Betting big but by putting a wager in that will keep you interested in the outcome and spotting what will happen ($1 Parlays)

You will never see me here using the word LARGE, BIG, A SURE THING, ALL IN or any of those words that would imply poor money management skills. That is because that is not my style, does it work yes, if you limit yourself to good capping and look for spots here and there. They call this value investing. I am more of the scavenger hyena type where I let the big boys do the killing and I come in to most kills and get my piece, not greedy just a piece and look for the next opportunity.

Look at the reasoning of others here before the game started and asked yourself which of those people (any game yesterday) made the right call and which had the right outcome.

Part 1 of 2

 
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Posted: #10488
Here is what I said...

Turbovtk 26-16-2

MIA Heat -5.5

NY Knicks +1

DEN Nuggets +6

Heat - Seriously under 6 ? You can feed me all the BS you want but I aint eating this. Heat -5.5 (B2) and adding to teasers and Parlay- if the Heat can step up for this game to keep streak alive it will be a very sad end to the streak. I know for the streak they just need to win but if they can't win by a couple of 3 pointers they don't deserve to win. This line will probably be -8 by game time.

Knicks been following Matts trend worked on Monday lets see today  and I think the Grizz's are on a tail spin and they have a very tough schedule coming up against teams that like to put up points. They will be pressing to stay focus on this game. If the knicks start with a lead it would be hard for them to catch them.

Nuggets playing my low loss home record theory here and also the Nuggets should step up to this game- this line should really be -4 I think, even without Lawson the bucks a much lesser team beat them recently late Feb and that being the Suns-

The one game I loss was the right call, because you should not predict the end of a streak or trend until there are signs of it and there were no signs, the outcome was the wrong outcome because I lost the bet. However the line did move to 7 close to game time which I was expecting would hit 8. There are certain things you can't account for, the game I lost Monday had both teams shooting around 50-60% all game that is not the norm. I had the under and lost it by 4 points towards the end.


The two games I won were the right call and ended with the right outcome.

As you can see I said if the Knicks get a lead it would be hard for the Grizz to catch them and as you know the ending score tells very little of what kind of game it was. The Knicks knew they had a huge lead and coasted and that made it a closer game than it really was.

The Nuggets game call was right on point, almost to the T as I thought they had a good chance at winning, and it was not a late comeback it was all throughout the game this way you can't get closer to winning than to lose by 1 pts or one basket (one basket = 1-3 pts the amounts that one basket can make)

Now this is what I would like to see people do ( i have no authority here just a suggestion ) if we all instead of go nuts about what happened (and venting is ok that is part of life and part of what we do here) but if we take the time to go over the game without bias and use a DA (devils advocate) approach we can get better by understanding which calls are emotional which are based on actual studies. This does not mean you will be perfect but the road to profitability comes from learning your craft and honing your skills though analysis of your decision making theories and implementing them. Sure you will lose games that were the right call, but those are the GREEN v. Miami game or the games when teams have a 20pt quarter combined and you had the over- or the Lakers game when you have the under and they put up almost 80 pts in a quarter combined, but all these are the exceptions. Bet the rules not the exceptions and don't force plays unless is little money and you are doing it for entertainment or seeking value.


Part 2 of 2
 
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Posted: #10489
Turbo, hit you up a friend request, we should talk :)
 
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Posted: #10490
Quote Originally Posted by KaiserWilhelm:


Barcelona has already lost to a pityful team (Sociedad) this season, the difference is that they play once a week in LaLiga, whereas sometimes in the NBA they play 3 games in 4 nights. But this is not about soccer so I won't get deeper into that. I have been following for a long time now and I am amazed at the amount of effort and teamwork you guys put in. My most succesfull sport to bet in is soccer (maybe I will make a thread in the specific section as I realize this is only about American sports) , but especially due to this thread I was able to improve my NBA betting "skills" if one can say that. Looking forward to contribute to this thread and post a pick every now and then. (Don't worry I'll comply with the formating rules and reasoning right from the start).
My utmost respect to all cappers in here, Mavin for his insights into sports betting and his administrative work, and nbacasper for his 1st quarter panicking (you realize you are about to become a legend in one day right?), gave me some good laughs. Mavin I will also visit the binary options thread, still in the process of enhancing my knowledge, but eventually I might need to ask you some more specific questions if thats okay? 

At last I apologize for all grammar and spelling errors of mine, I am German and English is not my first language.

Good Luck everybody

Welcome and very nice post.

Would def. like to learn soccer, this is my real first full year at the NBA I am about the NFL may take on MLB.
 
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Posted: #10491
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:

This is an example of how the 2H method is working Cliff its late but you ll read this in the morning... Chris does not sleep

PARLAY (10 TEAMS)

03/27/2013 @ 11:55 PM NBA

[2775] 2H SACRAMENTO +7½-110

03/27/2013 @ 11:55 PM NBA

[2775] TOTAL o106-110 

(2H SACRAMENTO vrs 2H GOLDEN STATE)

03/28/2013 @ 12:05 AM NBA

[2778] 2H PORTLAND -7½-110

03/28/2013 @ 12:05 AM NBA

[2778] TOTAL u96-110 

(2H BROOKLYN vrs 2H PORTLAND)

03/28/2013 @ 09:45 PM CBB

[808] INDIANA U -250

03/28/2013 @ 07:15 PM CBB

[810] MIAMI FLORIDA -230

03/28/2013 @ 07:45 PM CBB

[812] OHIO STATE -175

03/29/2013 @ 07:15 PM CBB

[873] OREGON +12-150 (B+2)

03/29/2013 @ 07:35 PM CBB

[878] KANSAS -130

03/29/2013 @ 09:55 PM CBB

[879] FLA GULF COAST +15-150 (B+2)


The NETS game missed by exactly one bucket on the over which also caused the spread to lose. When we keep getting this close the system is just about there, to those here not familiar with this we win most 2H and when it loses the calls are still right but you get a freak quarter (3Q) Nets in this case. With a bit more testing we will should start writing down the rules.



It's how I stay beautiful, lol.  

We are really close... the system is getting better everyday and we have even been able to add some things for an even higher success rate.  Watching the game flow helped us with this!  





 
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Posted: #10492
Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:

Turbo, hit you up a friend request, we should talk :)

accepted 
 
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Posted: #10493
Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:


It's how I stay beautiful, lol.  

We are really close... the system is getting better everyday and we have even been able to add some things for an even higher success rate.  Watching the game flow helped us with this!  




One of CPs has to get its beauty sleep  the other has to keep his brainspinning and pondering  and maybe someday I will find the cure and be able to be pretty 


 
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Posted: #10494
 Early thoughts on tonight

La Laker @ Mil
 Thinking the lakers take this. They have now had full squad back together for a couple of games. They put up 120 last night for their 2nd highest total for the year. We all know this team could be lethal if and when it starts to gel. In my mind they will be ready to come out gun's a blazing looking forward to getting into a playoff spot. Mil well, they just haven't been very great lately. I look for Lakers to continue on with another W tonight and get one game closer to post season play.

 Indy @ Dall

 Dall has been a scoring machine lately. Indy comes into town boasting a very good defence. The line on this one is a bit weird. It's opened on wclc at -5.5 favoring Dall, yet online it's at -3.5. Indy coming in on b2b games are very well only giving up 88 pts on no rest. Dallas  is 10-1  su 8-3 ats on 1 day rest vs 0 day rest. Indy is 5-5 su/ats without rest vs 1 dr team. Indy is 5-0 ats vs dallas last 5 3-2 su winning the last 2 in Indy and the last game played in Dallas 98-87. That game was however at a time when Dallas failed to score over 100 in 8 of their last 11 games. Now they are avg over 100 in their last many games. Tough call on this one? I'm thinking Indy might be able to keep this one close as they have played Dallas very well over the past meetings.

 Sac @ PHo toss a coin? lol
 
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Posted: #10495
Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:

 Early thoughts on tonight

La Laker @ Mil
 Thinking the lakers take this. They have now had full squad back together for a couple of games. They put up 120 last night for their 2nd highest total for the year. We all know this team could be lethal if and when it starts to gel. In my mind they will be ready to come out gun's a blazing looking forward to getting into a playoff spot. Mil well, they just haven't been very great lately. I look for Lakers to continue on with another W tonight and get one game closer to post season play.

 Indy @ Dall

 Dall has been a scoring machine lately. Indy comes into town boasting a very good defence. The line on this one is a bit weird. It's opened on wclc at -5.5 favoring Dall, yet online it's at -3.5. Indy coming in on b2b games are very well only giving up 88 pts on no rest. Dallas  is 10-1  su 8-3 ats on 1 day rest vs 0 day rest. Indy is 5-5 su/ats without rest vs 1 dr team. Indy is 5-0 ats vs dallas last 5 3-2 su winning the last 2 in Indy and the last game played in Dallas 98-87. That game was however at a time when Dallas failed to score over 100 in 8 of their last 11 games. Now they are avg over 100 in their last many games. Tough call on this one? I'm thinking Indy might be able to keep this one close as they have played Dallas very well over the past meetings.

 Sac @ PHo toss a coin? lol


Thats what i mean when NBA is pure random results.

How can you explain, HOW, that phoenix, a team that SUKS, vs kings, a team that latelly has played very well, that score a lot of points, that yesterday, they defeated warriors without problems, cant defeat phoenix??? i dont understand why not. For me, kings should win, and phoenix are favourite here??? this is mad xDD
 
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Posted: #10496
Quote Originally Posted by nbacasper:



Thats what i mean when NBA is pure random results.

How can you explain, HOW, that phoenix, a team that SUKS, vs kings, a team that latelly has played very well, that score a lot of points, that yesterday, they defeated warriors without problems, cant defeat phoenix??? i dont understand why not. For me, kings should win, and phoenix are favourite here??? this is mad xDD


 The books are smart man, have to try and be one step ahead of them. Try to think of what they are presenting to you. You could see a game going over 200 like I called NY last night. They had it set at 186. Immediately making people think oooooooohh that total is so low, must be a low scoring game they are thinking. LOL and look how many it sucked in. I'm not the best by any means, however when I see the last 4 times they played in NY they avg 220 pts/game, my immediate thoughts without looking at the total were over. Now I could have looked at the line and had it scare me however, I went with what I seen and liked.
 Like I also mentioned yesterday not liking the line that the Western canadian lottery put out for Mia. I've paid attention to the numbers they put out as they are set in stone the night before the games are played. When they have a team as 9.5 fav/ 6.5 fav I really don't like those numbers. I've found more times than not, those #'s don't cover and many times the fav can outright loose those games. Maybe don't concentrate so much on the lines they put out. Look at the game who you think will actually win, and then match it up to the line given. Mia last night was a -6.5 fav at CHi and we know how that turned out and I mentioned it in one of my posts yesterday. Something along the lines of WHY is Mia only 5.5 fav online? Books lured people right into that one. The line was too low not to take Mia on such a streak. They just won by 15+ consecutive games? -5.5 is easy money to cover WRONG
 Same as I mentioned about Bos playing poor on the rd yet Bos is a public betting team. People hear Bos and believe it's a win, Especially when you see them at only -2.5 on the road. I also asked yesterday and mentioned I believe the books wanted you to take Boston and at -2.5, well they lost. Look at the games Casper without the number on the game and make a cross reference when your done. It might help you decide in your mind what the right play is without having the line sway your thoughts.
 Like Atl yesterday. The books put down Tor as a small home fav. Well the betting public would rather bet on a fav. Tor by -2.5 at home should be good. Well when they are playing a team that has beat them 4 straight times by decent amounts in their own house, they put the line right where they wanted making you think Tor was the play. However I seen what Atl had done in Tor over the past visits there, and took Atl.
 I am not the best, by any means, and not having the lines disrupt your thought on the game I think is the biggest thing to overcome. They are smart and by simply putting it in a certain place can totally turn your thoughts on the game backwards. THus making you a LOOSER for listening to them :) Try to be one step ahead :) GLTY man :) BTW positive thought can be alot more useful than the slander your giving the games. Think positive, be positive. Positive thoughts can only bring on positive results. If you think poorly about everygame, What do you think your chances are of winning? about as good as your attitude.

Regarding me posting my picks,.................well, to me it seems when I say on paper to everyone they will win, somehow Karma catches up. However I'm going to continue to post my thoughts on games, without the actual posting of them :) I think you will know by my reasoning who I'm with and why. :) GLTY ALL out there, let's get that
 
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Posted: #10497
Quote Originally Posted by nbacasper:



Thats what i mean when NBA is pure random results.

How can you explain, HOW, that phoenix, a team that SUKS, vs kings, a team that latelly has played very well, that score a lot of points, that yesterday, they defeated warriors without problems, cant defeat phoenix??? i dont understand why not. For me, kings should win, and phoenix are favourite here??? this is mad xDD

Without you or anyone else on this thread being offended you have too a simplistic a view of what you are trying to do- gamble, handicap, wager (call it what you wish) but lets put it this way if you want to bake a cake do you just say here is flour here is sugar, eggs, milk put it all in a blender and boom you have a cake? well maybe a liquid cake. Now if you take those ingredients, get a recipe (more on this later) and get the right tools (oven, mixer, measuring instruments etc) then you are more likely to make a useful cake. Back to recipe... that is the key finding out the right amount of what to use and when to use it, mind you a set of rules to follow and hone the craft- at first you can even hone your skills on paper without any money at risk but only if you will take as serious as if you had skin in the game, if not then it is useless. Some of my dollar parlays are not just to make money but to also keep me up checking scores news and trends call it the power of a $1.... parlay.

That being said in sports the good team doesn't always win, in stocks the profitable companies don't always make you money. They can but you have to follow the trends and rules you set up. You can say the heat are supposed to beat everyone but you know that is not true because history will show you no one had a perfect NBA season- in the NFL it has been done, but then you have to ask yourself how often and if you are shooting for the things that almost never happen you better be prepared for failure and growing pains. I always used to do my $1 parlays and lost here won there etc. but it was not until I started implementing systems to bet the top 3 games and bet all games with small amounts and finding the right mix that I felt more comfortable with them.

And my new best way to bet is the Open Parlay system because I think in a span of 90 days people should be able to string 2-10 bets in a row. On covers I have gotten as high as 6 on the contest but you can see others go past 10.

In the NFL last year I went over 12 (did not have this betting system applied)

During the playoffs NFL I hit a few open bet parlays and missed the big one for 10 teams because the Patriots loss on my 9th pick- I had 8 in a row and my projections were for Pats and 49ers and Pats winning, I did have a small futures bet on ravens winning and ravens v. 49ers that made it all worth while.

That being said don't assume the good teams will win or that is rigged. While I do think some games there are fishy things going on and history has shown players and refs have bet on games and used their power to sway the results in their favor.

One good example on the Heat game last night- a 16 sec backcourt violation called and then over turned?

Lebron getting whacked in the head no fouls called? There are games when people graze your jersey and a foul is called. Sometimes weird things do happen and make you wonder. But you have to try to find your edge that is usually in the numbers and working them into a system.

I want the RLM guys to do more data from here to the start of the playoffs, yesterday you guys started doing that, you guys know who you are- lets get more data. 
 
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Posted: #10498
Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:



 The books are smart man, have to try and be one step ahead of them. Try to think of what they are presenting to you. You could see a game going over 200 like I called NY last night. They had it set at 186. Immediately making people think oooooooohh that total is so low, must be a low scoring game they are thinking. LOL and look how many it sucked in. I'm not the best by any means, however when I see the last 4 times they played in NY they avg 220 pts/game, my immediate thoughts without looking at the total were over. Now I could have looked at the line and had it scare me however, I went with what I seen and liked.
 Like I also mentioned yesterday not liking the line that the Western canadian lottery put out for Mia. I've paid attention to the numbers they put out as they are set in stone the night before the games are played. When they have a team as 9.5 fav/ 6.5 fav I really don't like those numbers. I've found more times than not, those #'s don't cover and many times the fav can outright loose those games. Maybe don't concentrate so much on the lines they put out. Look at the game who you think will actually win, and then match it up to the line given. Mia last night was a -6.5 fav at CHi and we know how that turned out and I mentioned it in one of my posts yesterday. Something along the lines of WHY is Mia only 5.5 fav online? Books lured people right into that one. The line was too low not to take Mia on such a streak. They just won by 15+ consecutive games? -5.5 is easy money to cover WRONG
 Same as I mentioned about Bos playing poor on the rd yet Bos is a public betting team. People hear Bos and believe it's a win, Especially when you see them at only -2.5 on the road. I also asked yesterday and mentioned I believe the books wanted you to take Boston and at -2.5, well they lost. Look at the games Casper without the number on the game and make a cross reference when your done. It might help you decide in your mind what the right play is without having the line sway your thoughts.
 Like Atl yesterday. The books put down Tor as a small home fav. Well the betting public would rather bet on a fav. Tor by -2.5 at home should be good. Well when they are playing a team that has beat them 4 straight times by decent amounts in their own house, they put the line right where they wanted making you think Tor was the play. However I seen what Atl had done in Tor over the past visits there, and took Atl.
 I am not the best, by any means, and not having the lines disrupt your thought on the game I think is the biggest thing to overcome. They are smart and by simply putting it in a certain place can totally turn your thoughts on the game backwards. THus making you a LOOSER for listening to them :) Try to be one step ahead :) GLTY man :) BTW positive thought can be alot more useful than the slander your giving the games. Think positive, be positive. Positive thoughts can only bring on positive results. If you think poorly about everygame, What do you think your chances are of winning? about as good as your attitude.

Regarding me posting my picks,.................well, to me it seems when I say on paper to everyone they will win, somehow Karma catches up. However I'm going to continue to post my thoughts on games, without the actual posting of them :) I think you will know by my reasoning who I'm with and why. :) GLTY ALL out there, let's get that

I agree with like 98% of what you said- however the Heat game was not a traditional win per say. The same way the Heat have won some games or covered because of stuff that rarely happens ended up happening. Those are the things that you can't predict and if you loose a game like that then you made the right call wrong outcome.

I can base it on my experience but lets use the NHL I know zero about betting this game. But I choose the O5.5 on a game and the teams end up scoring 16 goals... man I was right I knew it- but the truth is this is not the norm by far and it is wrong call right outcome.

There were fouls not called yesterday and the game reminded me very much of a few months back the Celtics and Bulls where there was a jump ball called when pierce I believe was smacked in the face/head area hard. Then an out of bounds call where no celt was around and the ball went to the bulls (it so happened it was the same ref) the second call was overturned by another ref.

So I think predictions have to be made using average numbers not the once in a life time game that Green had against the Heat, or for instance that 70+ point quarter on the lakers game last nite etc. When these things happen whether they help you get the right outcome or fail you and get you the wrong outcome unless it matches up with your pre game reasons you can't justify the call.
 
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Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 5295
Posted: #10499
Quote Originally Posted by KaiserWilhelm:


Barcelona has already lost to a pityful team (Sociedad) this season, the difference is that they play once a week in LaLiga, whereas sometimes in the NBA they play 3 games in 4 nights. But this is not about soccer so I won't get deeper into that. I have been following for a long time now and I am amazed at the amount of effort and teamwork you guys put in. My most succesfull sport to bet in is soccer (maybe I will make a thread in the specific section as I realize this is only about American sports) , but especially due to this thread I was able to improve my NBA betting "skills" if one can say that. Looking forward to contribute to this thread and post a pick every now and then. (Don't worry I'll comply with the formating rules and reasoning right from the start).
My utmost respect to all cappers in here, Mavin for his insights into sports betting and his administrative work, and nbacasper for his 1st quarter panicking (you realize you are about to become a legend in one day right?), gave me some good laughs. Mavin I will also visit the binary options thread, still in the process of enhancing my knowledge, but eventually I might need to ask you some more specific questions if thats okay? 

At last I apologize for all grammar and spelling errors of mine, I am German and English is not my first language.

Good Luck everybody
You're welcome here buddy and if you want to ask me something om PM hit me with a friend request first. GL
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2013
Posts: 129
Posted: #10500
I'm really like mil bucks tonight, seen some rlm with 60% on lakers yet the line opened at -1.5 and dropped to -1 then went to -2. I'm also leaning on dal and pho but for now have my mind set on mil as the right play. Feel free to give some insight, lets have a good thursday everybody !
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