Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:
"OKC -5.5. The league averages for three pointers are 35.5%, 7.2 made,
20.1 attempted. OKC attempts 19.1 a game, below the league average. LAL
attempts 25.1 a game, way above the league average. LAL makes 8.9 a
game, meaning they can hope to accumulate roughly 27 points off 3
pointers tonight (9 X 3). OKC can hope to make 23 points off 3 pointers
(7.6 x 3 = 22.8). That is a 4 point benefit to LAL. Now, look at the
wasted possessions. LAL is going to waste 16 possessions, OKC is going
to waste 11.5 possessions. That is a 4.7 possession advantage for OKC.
OKC hits FG at 47.8%. 4.7 X 47.8% is 2 extra points. So, 4-2 is 2. The
Lakers, if all goes according to plan can only hope to gain 2 points by
lofting up all those 3 pointers? I don't see the value there. It assumes
that the Lakers have to maintain their 35% clip on 3 pointers.
Utah
+4.5. Atlanta makes 8.9 a game (26.7 pts) and Utah makes 6.5 a game
(19.5 pts). This gives Atl a potential 7.2 advantage. Atl gives away
14.7 possessions a game on missed 3 pts. Utah wastes 11.1 possessions.
That is a 3.6 advantage for Utah and they make 44.4% of FG. 3.6 x .444 =
1.59 extra FG made x 2 pts = 3. Atlanta, assuming both teams hit at
their averages is only gaining four points from all their 3 pointers.
And they are giving away -4.5 pts in the spread.
GS -7.5. I would
be most worried about this one based on the big spread. But, in this
case Golden State would actually come out ahead in the calculation. I
won't go through the above calculations again but, GS is actually going
to gain points on Portland despite attempting 3.6 less 3 pointers.
Attempting less, giving away less possessions and still getting more
points, that's what I am looking for"
The above picks are the ones I was looking at yesterday. I am not betting on these at this point, just tracking/observing. I have to say, so far in my basketball betting experience I have watched three games start to finish: Thursdays Kings game, last nights Utah game and the GS game. All three I had an interest in, tailing Mavin on the Kings and watching the latter two for my 3 pt theory. In all three cases the team I was rooting for had at least a 15 point lead late in the 3rd quarter. And I mean late, like 2 minutes to go in the third. And all three had atrocious 4th quarters. Makes me wonder why any b-ball fan watches the first 3 quarters - just tune in for the fourth. Anyway, small sample size, I can't imagine this is always the case, just thought it was a strange coincidence.
As for the games last night, OKC was an easy winner. I feel good about the Utah game. They had a 17 point lead with 2:10 to go in the 3rd quarter. Atlanta made what I can only imagine is a remarkable comeback - for those watching the game, the Atlanta commentators were in shock at their own teams performance. Plus, Atlanta shot 47% from 3 point range. Which is absurd considering their season average is only 37% - that seems like a huge outlier. So, I will chalk that up to a tough loss. When it comes to the GS game, I guess I was right to be worried about the big line. They also collapsed in the fourth but, I saw no other reason than a team at home, with a big lead, slowing down with a win in their pocket. Chalk that up to avoiding big lines (maybe over 6?).
Tonight's games:
I see three more worth paying attention to.
Phi -1. Philly attempts 9 fewer three pointers a game than Houston and they hit at the same percentage. This is very similar to the stats for Houston - Boston last night, which I stayed away from. I won't do the same here. I think this is what I am looking for. Two teams who are equal at doing something that is not overly successful (35%) yet, Philly is wise enough to do it 9 fewer times a game.
Chi -8.5. Similar to last nights GS game, the spread is a little big, so maybe this is the kind of game I will avoid in the future. But, Chicago attempts 5 fewer three pointers a game and they hit them at a higher percentage - this is exactly the formula I was originally looking for when I thought of this. Again, the spread is worrisome but, we are just tracking here.
Memphis -1.5. Memphis attempts 5 fewer three point shots a game then Dallas and they hit at almost the same ratio (Mem 34.8%, Dal 35.1). Again, like the Chicago game, this may be a reach. The reason being, originally I was looking for one team that was above the league average of 20.1 attempts and one that was below. In this case both teams are below the league average. However, the disparity is still five, so I will track this one as well. This game would also be one where I am not sure how to apply situation stuff - being that Memphis won an emotional home overtime game last night.
I obviously need to refine this a little as it is now 2-4. I think I need to stick the small spreads and stay away from the teams that, while they shoot less, have terrible percentages. So today I have two that fit.
Mil +2.5. They shoot the 3 less and have almost the same percentage (0.7 less).
OKC -4.5. This might seem like overkill because I am not sure, using this strategy, if I won't be forced to take OKC every time. They shoot less three than almost anyone and have an almost 40% success rate.
and you are taking them to the extreme. You are gambling, not handicapping. If you win, thats a nice hit but not only are the odds extremely against you, it doesnt help others who are trying to learn and absorb the great information and gems that are hidden in this thread. Please stop. I mean this with the utmost respect 
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