follow the shepherd (week 6 CFB plays)

In terms of the BIg 12, dont forget next weekend is the Red River Shootout . That means OU and Texas have each other circled. Taking Baylor and Colorado, the faves seem to good to be true. Not to mention, OU and Tex have been covering machines. Just my humble opinion. BOL sheperd.

On the contrary. Do you think the public is betting College Football games this early in the week when there's still Monday Night action to be had? Or, alternatively, do you think sharps are the ones that pounded this line up a couple of points?

Shep, I'd be real careful with Air Force this week.  I have the biggest man-crush on Air Force in the world, and love riding them to the cashiers' window.  I honestly don't think I've lost an Air Force bet in years.  I've already cashed with them against Wyoming, and again as one of my best bets versus Utah.

Navy is a little different animal though.  They have beaten Air Force straight up and ATS 5 years in a row now.  Air Force loses some their option attack advantage against Navy, because Navy knows how to defend it.  Of course the reverse argument could also be made with propriety.

I also fully realize that Navy is an east coast team that will be playing at an altitude of 6,620 feet above sea level, and that Air Force has had 2 weeks to prepare to end the Midshipmen's 5-game winning streak.  I'm also mindful that Navy is coming off a huge upset victory over Wake Forest this past week.  But none of that takes away from the fact that this is a huge rivalry game that Navy has dominated for a half of a decade.

Bookmaker currently has Air Force  at -5.5.  Personally, I just don't see a whole lot of value in this line for Air Force.  I could be wrong, but If you put a gun to my head, I think I would play the other side here.

I'm quite sure my money will again be on Air Force before the season expires, but this week just won't be one of them.  I'll wait for a better spot.

BOL!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

Ummm KSU Ohhhlala is a pretty respectable team.  They are very well coached and have one of the most confusing offenses you'll ever see.  They are extremely balanced and difficult to stop.  i know i wouldn't want to be the defensive coordinator who has to devise a scheme to stop them.

Look for Ohhlala to surprise some people this year.  The Ragin' Cajuns are 3-1 versus the spread this year, and look for that trend to continue throughout the year.  Give'em a try -2 versus Louisiana-Monroe this week.

FREAK OUT!!!

When I initially looked at the line this week, Tennessee immediately jumped out at me.  Northern Illinois is coming off of a very inflated win over Eastern Michigan (Eastern Michigan's starting QB Kyle McMahon was knocked out of the game on the first series with a shoulder injury), and the Vols are coming off of another lathargic offensive effort.

Now Tennessee is at Neyland Stadium where they shine against an inferior MAC team laying only 16.  At first blush there would appear to be a lot of value here for Tennessee.  The Vols are usually  in this situation.  I've been betting Tennessee in this sort of spot for years now, and they usually cover against leeser teams on their home turf.

Two things concern me a bit however.  First, this is the worst offense Tennessee has had in my memory.  That's not good if you're laying DD.  My second concern is that Phatamus has announced there will be an open competiton at QB this week in practice.

Anybody who's watched the Vols at all this year knows that Jonathan Crompton has been God-awful.  I keep hearing he does great in practice, but it's just not translating to games.

If Crompton loses the QB competiton this week, Nick Stephens will get the start, and Stephens has a grand total of 2 collegiate passes on his resume, both against UAB earlier this year.  On the upside, he did complete one of those passes for 42 yards.

In any event, I think I'll wait to hear what the verdict is on the QB competition before laying the lumber.  The funny thing about that is that I have no earthly idea who I'm rooting for. 

Well folks, that's why they call it gambling!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

I know exactly how you feel Shep.  I always have a temptation to pull the trigger on Air Force because historically they are a money machine.  It would be much easier for me to do so if the line were 3.  At 5.5 & 6, I don't what the hell to do except lay off.

BOL!!!

FREAK OUT!!!