Posted:
#601
Hey was your Memphis -6 and the Under system plays??
Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
Czech!!
3-0 tonight guys! 
Posted:
#609
CZECH great calls tonight. I only rode with the total game under, same as other poster said before on SI it was holding at 182.5 but moved up to 183 late. I didn't think it was too significant and rode with your call. Very happy I did. 
Meant to bet -6 Memphis but fell asleep, that first quarter was concerning but just goes to show.
Keep up the great work!
Posted:
#610
Not really sure why I decided to start a new record tonight, but I was frustrated that I didn't "officially" call a couple plays yesterday "system plays". So old system record was 5-3, not including anything from yesterday.
New system record:
3-0 YTD
I can't lie, that feels good. Everyone's gonna be excited. Remember tomorrow we could have a bad day. Or not. Just keep your head and be disciplined and I'll try and give you sharp plays.
Good night tonight! We rode hard and rescued the women and killed those savages!
Posted:
#612
Quote Originally Posted by vision23x:
I'll be the first to bitch, but I'll also be the first to applaud you. Great read on the 2H Under. 1-2 and I make 60 bucks! I'm happy for you guys! Good shit!
I'll be the first to bitch, but I'll also be the first to applaud you. Great read on the 2H Under. 1-2 and I make 60 bucks! I'm happy for you guys! Good shit!
Thanks Vision nice turn around. I can do without the shit talking but glad you came around.
Posted:
#618
Hey whoever likes the thread and is following and commenting and contributing and is a part of it, send me a friend request, in case you want to pm or anything in the future.
I put a lot out there already for everyone here and with 46,000 views and counting that's cool but that means 99% of covers busters are in here viewing and not a part of it all, just benefiting and throwing in their bullshit when they get a chance.
I'm not going anywhere gonna keep posting but may not be posting as actively every day, getting back to the grind on poker tomorrow.
Posted:
#619
Quote Originally Posted by mortgage:
CZECH great calls tonight. I only rode with the total game under, same as other poster said before on SI it was holding at 182.5 but moved up to 183 late. I didn't think it was too significant and rode with your call. Very happy I did.
CZECH great calls tonight. I only rode with the total game under, same as other poster said before on SI it was holding at 182.5 but moved up to 183 late. I didn't think it was too significant and rode with your call. Very happy I did.
Meant to bet -6 Memphis but fell asleep, that first quarter was concerning but just goes to show.
Keep up the great work!
I never saw it go back to 183 just 182.5, but this interesting. If it did it obviously didn't matter in this case. But even if it did it didn't get back to the open, which is worth noting by itself, providing the big majority on the over.
See this is an example of why it is determined sharp pre-game. After that first quarter I think we were ALL not so confident in the under anymore, and obviously it slowed down and we called the second half under but still, say the game would have landed at 184? That coulda happened with 99 first half. How would the discussion be going then?
So the second half part is a good backup in its own right, but to the point I was making before, the under was still the right play regardless, based on the system and how 3/4 of the game went. That first quarter was nuts and for it to go under by 10.5 after that is crazy.
Even had it lost you'd have to still know this one was right. Almost impossible to hit that under after that 1 quarter and it wasn't even close. It was the sharp play last game also and earned Scooby Buster Comment of the Day for saying it wasn't.
Posted:
#621
41, 43, 30.
That's how the 2nd 3rd and fourth quarters went. Wow.
Had Memphis choked and found themselves in OT again the game woulda went over and I might have went 0-3 tonight. Some buster in here would have said the over was the play lol and in reality both unders should have hit but got sucked out in OT.
This is good info to reflect on in the future if that happens. I was dead wrong on the Utah over 2 nights ago but not on Memphis under the last time, even though it lost in OT.
When you evaluate a game afterwards it's not always about who won or lost, sometimes you know you just got lucky and sometimes you were on the right side and lost. And sometimes it's just sports.
I'm not "afraid" to lose tomorrow or anything but it could happen. I know that though just hope you guys do too. Win or lose we're gonna ride hard though through the rest of this post season and then I may even delve into baseball idk. Sigh. Wish basketball was year round.
Posted:
#622
Quote Originally Posted by genosteaks05:
Czech,
If Memphis goes over its all good. Looks like the spread will hit. Vizion: either post picks or shut up, no one here cares what you say, go get some friends or give input. I just want to say i saw on sportsinteractions that the Memphis line started at 183.5 went down to 182, then back up to 183. But maybe on your site it just went down half a point and stayed there. I think we need to incorporate multiple sites for the movement and not just one place. The Sharps use more than one site and shop around. And maybe the half pt jump back late is good but 1pt we stay away. Busters wont move it an entire pt late. That had to be Sharps at end. Meaning Sharps were divided and no one really knew, and thats fine we just wait for the next or only 1 play that day
Czech,
If Memphis goes over its all good. Looks like the spread will hit. Vizion: either post picks or shut up, no one here cares what you say, go get some friends or give input. I just want to say i saw on sportsinteractions that the Memphis line started at 183.5 went down to 182, then back up to 183. But maybe on your site it just went down half a point and stayed there. I think we need to incorporate multiple sites for the movement and not just one place. The Sharps use more than one site and shop around. And maybe the half pt jump back late is good but 1pt we stay away. Busters wont move it an entire pt late. That had to be Sharps at end. Meaning Sharps were divided and no one really knew, and thats fine we just wait for the next or only 1 play that day
The Busters don't necessarily have to move anything late to 183. Like I was saying before Vegas already anticipates that late buster action and can adjust it up anyways. How many people out there really wait until last minute to take an under. You're afraid it's gonna go down more and bet it early. That late move up is for the late buster over money.
Posted:
#623
Geno
One last thing I replied to your post above but didn't get to your last sentence. I don't think it was sharp money at all pushing it up late. It was most likely late buster money in my opinion, and/or Vegas adjusting it late in anticipation of this buster money.
But what I wanted to add was you coulda laid off the total to your point had you wanted to, and I would've no-played it myself under the old parameters especially had I seen it go to 183. This is why I no-played Denver and indi yesterday. I changed things but it coulda been a lay off, and maybe just a second half under play if there was a good value spot like we saw tonight. But under my new 2.0 version the play remained as long as it didn't come all the way back to the open of 183.5. The point with all this shit and I said it before was once I see a play is sharp I don't want to get kicked off it unless there's good reason. We know about late buster money so it going to 183 isn't good enough.
Posted:
#624
I guess I didn't even really think this before but it does take some kind of thought process to work this. There are most likely some busters that can read the entire system and not apply it correctly. And some will read it and say wow I've never thought about it like that before.
I should explain that I'm not a dick and don't mean anything by busters. My feeling is that we are ALL busters. Think about it, we like sports and get involved and learn stats and remember past games and think we have it all figured out.
The truth is they have it figured out quicker and better than you do, and know how you're gonna see it as well. All of that has the potential to skew the line a little bit. If Vegas put out the true line every day I wouldn't be exploitable and I'd be wasting my time. But it's the busters that make it work.
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