Posted:
#876
hey, there is a mistake in Houston-Memphis bet
My Lines
Over/Under 186
Real Lines
Over/Under 189
Bet: Over 189
AussieCapper NBA (Box Score System)
Posted:
#877
maybe you just don't need to choose over/under bets over handicaps. maybe you it would be better to continue choosing 1 of 2 and choose the one where difference between you line and real one is bigger. yesterday you had good analysis, though it would be better to choose total in utah-no game, cuase jazz are not soild on the road and other factors... total was bettter for 76rs game too.
but today you have 3 points difference in toronto-new york game on total, but 6.5 on handicap. see what i mean?
also I don't realize how you put 108-102 on okc-utah game, when jazz is playing 3 day in a row (all road games) and they lost big to okc at home, but this is a different topic.
anyway, you are doing a great work with your system, thanks for that a lot of times and I just advise you to be more careful, because you are on a big road to success and you help us a lot
but today you have 3 points difference in toronto-new york game on total, but 6.5 on handicap. see what i mean?
also I don't realize how you put 108-102 on okc-utah game, when jazz is playing 3 day in a row (all road games) and they lost big to okc at home, but this is a different topic.
anyway, you are doing a great work with your system, thanks for that a lot of times and I just advise you to be more careful, because you are on a big road to success and you help us a lot
Posted:
#883
Quote Originally Posted by crice014:
**ATTENTION!**
**ATTENTION!**
IF YOU TAKE THESE PICKS YOUR BANK WILL BE BROKEN!!
Ive been following Aussie for a while now and nothing against ya Aussie you've been killing it lately! However there are a couple of factors that I do not think you accounted for in tonight's game, and eventually everyone's system goes cold. (Feel free to bash this post and talk shit like several of you make a living out of.) My system has a backbone and can take the flak cuz it is solid.
Here is where I feel differently :
Dallas -4.5 
under 187.5
Charlotte +12.5
under 179.5
Utah/New Orleans
over 184.5
Milwaukee +6.5
over 200.5
Phoenix +4.5
Minnesota +5.5
under 189.5
Posted:
#885
Quote Originally Posted by jay1234:
wait u lost dallas under to you went 2-9 
wait u lost dallas under to
you went 2-9 Know what you're talking about. He doesn't bet all of his predictions. Now he just bets totals, but yesterday he chose between an ATS bet or a total bet per game. And even if you count all his predictions, they amount to 12. 2-9 amounts to 11.
My bad, my bad. 
Posted:
#887
Quote Originally Posted by AussieCapper:
Indiana vs Miami
Indiana 25 23 24 21 93
Miami 27 26 21 24 98
My Lines
Over/Under 191
Real Lines
Over/Under 197.5
Bet: Under 197.5
Hey Aussie,
Still really confused on how you are coming up with your totals:
A) Quarter's averages are always going to equal totals averages so why do you break it down?
B) How are you getting your point totals because for example this season to date:
Chicago PPG on the road: 102.2
Indiana PPG @ home: 96.4
Total = 198.6
ALL GAMES stats
Chicago PPG: 103.4
Indiana PPG: 94.6
Total = 198
Posted:
#889
Quote Originally Posted by philly387:
Indiana is playing Miami tonight not Chicago...
Indiana is playing Miami tonight not Chicago...
Thanks Philly. My bad. Those are Miami Stats. I get the 2 confused sometimes cuz the uniforms and 1st place division / records are similar.
Miami PPG on the road: 102.2
Indiana PPG @ home: 96.4
Total = 198.6
ALL GAMES stats
Miami PPG: 103.4
Indiana PPG: 94.6
Total = 198
Posted:
#892
Miami PPG on the road: 102.2
Opponent's @ home: 97.9
Average: 100
Indiana PPG @ home: 96.4
Opponent's on the road: 91.2
Average: 93.8
Total = 193.8
Miami Back To BTB: - 5 = 188.8
Current O/U Line: 198
_______________________________________
ALL GAMES stats
Miami PPG: 103.4
Opponent's: 95.1
Average: 99.3
Indiana PPG: 94.6
Opponent's: 91.2
Average: 92.9
Total = 192.2
Posted:
#895
A more refined analysis of the stats gets very close to AussieCapper's (on this particular game).
These are the most relevant stats in my humble opinion:
Miami PPG on the road against Teams with Similar Records: 101.2
Opponent's with similar records @ home vs Miami: 97.6
Average: 99.4
Indiana PPG @ home against Teams with Similar Records: 95
Opponent's with similar records @ home vs Indiana: 93.4
Average: 94.2
Total = 191.8
Current Line: 198
I never considered capping a game this way but it seems only obvious now to pick O/U this way... along with other obvious variables of course.
With Miami playing their 3rd straight night I would not necessarily reduce this total as I previously considered because defense will also be weakened (Um... I'm a little slow sometimes
)
Posted:
#897
Quote Originally Posted by philly387:
Squirrel, you both are actually on the under then correct? Just your numbers are different?
Squirrel, you both are actually on the under then correct? Just your numbers are different?
Yes indeed. I have usually stayed away from O/U but I'm going to cap the other games as I did above and see if all the numbers are similar to Aussies. Maybe when he wakes up down under he will give a little more info as to how he is getting his numbers.
Good Luck!
Posted:
#899
Love the under in the Den?Pho game, capped it around 194 myself (FWIW). Phoenix, with or without Nash on tired legs playing in the thin air, but I am leaning them to stay within 9.
The OKC/ Utah game, though,I feel is going to stay under. Utah playing 3rd night in a row, 4 games in 5 nights. Talk abiut tired legs!! Of course, this may mean their 'D' gives up 120, but I think they'll concentrate more on defense, and try to slow the game down. To me that means less possessions. Hate going against you, but I feel I have to on this one.
BTW, I like Portland's defense to shut down the Wizards on the road, with you on that one too. Probably taking Portland too. They're 7-3 ATS after a loss, 5-1 ATS at home after a loss. 15 is a lot of points, but it's Washington at home, and there wins at home following a loss were by an avg of 26 points.
Sorry for putting so much in your thread, but I got carried away.
BOL, Aussie, hope you get all but the OKC game
The OKC/ Utah game, though,I feel is going to stay under. Utah playing 3rd night in a row, 4 games in 5 nights. Talk abiut tired legs!! Of course, this may mean their 'D' gives up 120, but I think they'll concentrate more on defense, and try to slow the game down. To me that means less possessions. Hate going against you, but I feel I have to on this one.
BTW, I like Portland's defense to shut down the Wizards on the road, with you on that one too. Probably taking Portland too. They're 7-3 ATS after a loss, 5-1 ATS at home after a loss. 15 is a lot of points, but it's Washington at home, and there wins at home following a loss were by an avg of 26 points.
Sorry for putting so much in your thread, but I got carried away.
BOL, Aussie, hope you get all but the OKC game
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