Posted:
#276
San Antonio vs Milwaukee
San Antonio 22 26 22 23 93
Milwaukee 34 29 16 22 101
My Lines
Milwaukee -8
Over/Under 194
Real Lines
San Antonio -2.5
Over/Under 188.5
Bet: Over 188.5
AussieCapper NBA (Box Score System)
Posted:
#287
are you sure aussie i like your picks except the MIN pick awhile ago i was frustrated at MIN for losing to TOR , maybe it was because of MIN and TORs PGs are both spaniards and calderon is a veteran , i might follow your bets , but i'm curious with the TOR@WAS game looks like a trap, TOR gets the +???
Posted:
#289
Quote Originally Posted by MPandrew:
are you sure aussie i like your picks except the MIN pick awhile ago i was frustrated at MIN for losing to TOR , maybe it was because of MIN and TORs PGs are both spaniards and calderon is a veteran , i might follow your bets , but i'm curious with the TOR@WAS game looks like a trap, TOR gets the +???
are you sure aussie i like your picks except the MIN pick awhile ago i was frustrated at MIN for losing to TOR , maybe it was because of MIN and TORs PGs are both spaniards and calderon is a veteran , i might follow your bets , but i'm curious with the TOR@WAS game looks like a trap, TOR gets the +???
both teams are very bad under for me
Posted:
#290
Philadelphia -10.5 3 units
Washington vs Toronto Under 185.5 3 units
Dallas vs Detroit under 182.5 3 units
San Antonio vs Milwaukee Over 188.5 3 units
Oklahoma vs Memphis Over 193.5 3 units
Chicago vs Minnesota Minnesota +6.5 3 units
Cleveland vs Utah +5.5 3 units
La Clippers vs Portland Over 195.5 3 units
Good Luck guys
Posted:
#292
I like the spurs, mavs and grizz on ML, and the cavs +5.5 in a nice 4 game parlay. OKC is destined for a loss, their due just like the nuggest last night, mavs and spurs both due for 1st road wins vs terrible teams, and cleveland albeit young has enough veterans to keep it close againt a weak jazz team. Sac- phi game is a trap, phi is playing fantastic D with collins, and sac roster is full of unknowns who lack consistency
Posted:
#293
Quote Originally Posted by AussieCapper:
Philadelphia -10.5 3 units
Washington vs Toronto Under 185.5 3 units
Dallas vs Detroit under 182.5 3 units
San Antonio vs Milwaukee Over 188.5 3 units
Oklahoma vs Memphis Over 193.5 3 units
Chicago vs Minnesota Minnesota +6.5 3 units
Cleveland vs Utah +5.5 3 units
La Clippers vs Portland Over 195.5 3 units
Good Luck guys
Nice set there, mate! I see you are sticking to same units on each one too which is a good move. You should rake in some profit each night if you keep it up!
Posted:
#294
Quote Originally Posted by AussieCapper:
Sacramento 20 25 20 20 85
Philadelphia 20 22 27 27 96
My Lines
Philadelphia -11
Over/Under 181
Real Lines
Philadelphia -10.5
Over/Under 197.5
Note: Sacramento Average biggest lead
Of the game when playing away from home
Is 6.3 and the average biggest lead for philly
When playing at home is 26
Bet: Philladelphia -10.5 3 units
I am having a problem with some of your lines . . . i also am using the same strategy to make picks but our numbers dont seem to be lining up. This pick for example our numbers are WAY off. I will go back and double check my numbers to make sure i have them right but they are far off.
the numbers i have for total averages are
sac 93.8
phili 100.3
i will go back and double check these numbers but if my numbers are correct i would like to know what you have added to make ur numbers so far off of mine.
Posted:
#297
ya comparing my picks for today and urs we have a couple that line up but we have a ton that are different. I have a bunch of picks you dont have and you have a bunch of picks that i deem not good according to my numbers . . . . . can you please tell me where your numbers are coming from because you seem to be adding numbers somewhere or subtracting and im very confused on how and why you are doing this.
Posted:
#298
ok i think i know how your coming up with your numbers now . . . slightly different then me for the time being.
You are only taking the averages for road or home games depending on if the team is playing on the road or at home. I like this approach and dont like this approach. The only reason i dont like the approach is because teams have not yet played enough games at home and on the road to get a good estimate. For example your stat for sacramento only takes into account 3 games because they have only played 3 games on the road thus far.
I was planning on holding off on only using stats from home and road games until prolly sometime around February.
I guess i can compare my picks to yours over the next week or two to see if your stats are running better than mine. For the time being i am not distinguishing between home and road games until teams get more of each.
You are only taking the averages for road or home games depending on if the team is playing on the road or at home. I like this approach and dont like this approach. The only reason i dont like the approach is because teams have not yet played enough games at home and on the road to get a good estimate. For example your stat for sacramento only takes into account 3 games because they have only played 3 games on the road thus far.
I was planning on holding off on only using stats from home and road games until prolly sometime around February.
I guess i can compare my picks to yours over the next week or two to see if your stats are running better than mine. For the time being i am not distinguishing between home and road games until teams get more of each.
Posted:
#299
Also another thing worth looking into is quarter betting. I dont have a large enough sample size to really decide if im just running hot or if i am indeed making the better picks bc of the stats. Certain teams score more in certain quarters than others and i believe this can be taken advantage of, as i said i will need to continue tracking this for some time to be positive.
One huge quarter stat that has jumped out to be so far is Utahs 4th quarter scoring. They have out scored every opponent thus far in the 4th quarter, except for their first game against the lakers where both teams scored 25 points in the 4th. This is a quarter bet that i am sure can be taken advantage of.
One huge quarter stat that has jumped out to be so far is Utahs 4th quarter scoring. They have out scored every opponent thus far in the 4th quarter, except for their first game against the lakers where both teams scored 25 points in the 4th. This is a quarter bet that i am sure can be taken advantage of.
Hot Forum Topics
