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Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper

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Posted: #1251
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Since you asked...

I am going to say this factually.  It might sound harsh, but it is not meant to be that way.  I already told you I am a fan of you and your videos and am hoping for the best.

That being said...  I would bet a large amount of money that you are busto by football season.  That means your current bankroll - without getting a job.

The reason is simple. "Gut feel" successful longterm profitable gamblers do not exist IMO.  They are the great white whales.  There are months, even years - where gut feel gamblers can thrive.  But it wont work longterm - or at least I have yet to see it work longterm.

To add to that - nobody goes 57% - 60%+ year after year on gut feel.  And certainly nobody goes 57-60% year after year without doing some serious line shopping strategies.

The guys who do that percentage year after year do it by not only having predictive statistics models, but also by having predictive line movement models that pinpoint precise times and lines to buy.  And most importantly - these guys KNOW HOW AND WHY THEY WIN.  They are able to articulate the conditions necessary for them to win, and what specific segment they are able to exploit.

A guy who says "I don't know how I win" is doomed.  A guy who wakes up and "caps" by reading previews and getting a gut feel, and then drives down to a sportsbook and bets in to -110 lines (often missing the best line) is doomed.

The biggest predictor of a longterm gamblers success is simply by how much he can beat the closing line.  And to do this, it takes a lot more than just gut feel.

Once again, just being honest here.  A lot of people don't like it when I am honest - most say it is too harsh - but I hope you take it in the way it is intended - for you to possibly take some of it to heart.

GL


For you to bet on something with no actual variables to look at is very arrogant. There is no way to sit on here and say gut feel gamblers don't last as much as you can't say they do last. Everybody is different with their styles of gambling. Everyone who isn't just cheering on and adding their insights to the games at hand, needs to take a chill pill.

Everyone is trying to find a flaw or expose why he will lose his shirt. Those people are exposing themselves as people who have already lost their shirts before in the past and can't believe anyone can succeed in their own gambling ways. Just because gambling hasn't worked out for you, doesn't mean it won't work out for him. 

From what I see, he actually has a nice professional approach to his wages and doesn't bet over his head. Just let the man be and don't sit here saying you will lose your bankroll because if you bet with your gut, it's proven you won't last... LOL give me a break, where is your proof? In your career? 

 
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Posted: #1252

Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

Thanks for ur opinions Vanzack. No hard feelings I respect u regardless. Everyone entitled to there own opinion. I gurantee you tho I will prove u wrong and not only be here by football season but I'll be up $ also. Time will tell but I will prove u wrong sir

I sincerely hope you prove me wrong.

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Posted: #1253
Quote Originally Posted by baronman:

Bring it on Sidepiece ,ranger & anyone else out there Yes ranger it would hit nog miracle The question was for College Gambler Not you I don't want your opinion . You don't even put any plays out there College I will play your plays I also took Oregon State +7( thought line was 9)Taking Westgeko pick Louisana -4.5 . My pick USC +24/Arizona. My pick way to many points in conference game Also College Gamblers picks You guys sorry about my threads really hard when I'm bartending sometimes & responding I laugh because I've been on covers for years I watch how people like to critical about others 1) they cuss You out 2) they threaten to beat you up ( be careful what you wish for You don't know me or I you)3) a lot bettors say they BETLARGE$$$ & less than half of them show us the ticket 4) seems like this group critique my English language 5) Also this sight you guys tell College Gambler what to do 6) this goes for most of you Put your $$$! Where your mouth is Lets see your PLAYS NOW not the next day . Saying I had great day I know you might have good day Thanks to College Got to go Hosted bar tonight Top Shelf 2 hour package 800 people Go College Gambler OUT

Hey guy, there's some ESL classes around your area, could brush up a little, not being rude, but just saying.  You're so negative man.
 
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Posted: #1254
Quote Originally Posted by WSTgekko:


For you to bet on something with no actual variables to look at is very arrogant. There is no way to sit on here and say gut feel gamblers don't last as much as you can't say they do last. Everybody is different with their styles of gambling. Everyone who isn't just cheering on and adding their insights to the games at hand, needs to take a chill pill.

Everyone is trying to find a flaw or expose why he will lose his shirt. Those people are exposing themselves as people who have already lost their shirts before in the past and can't believe anyone can succeed in their own gambling ways. Just because gambling hasn't worked out for you, doesn't mean it won't work out for him. 

From what I see, he actually has a nice professional approach to his wages and doesn't bet over his head. Just let the man be and don't sit here saying you will lose your bankroll because if you bet with your gut, it's proven you won't last... LOL give me a break, where is your proof? In your career? 

Don't be an emotional fanboy.

You can call me arrogant.  That's fine.  I am giving him advice because he asked me to - and because I am qualified to give advice.  In other words, I know what I am talking about.

But this isn't about me.  And it isn't about telling someone they are going to succeed while watching them drive off of a cliff - there are plenty here giving awful advice because they themselves don't have an understanding of the concepts at hand.

I do have that understanding.  And I will tell you - that the most interesting thing you can say to someone who thinks they can be profitable at sportsbetting - is simply "WHY?".   The first reaction is usually silence - because they have never thought about it.  Are they gifted?  Can they really have a gut feel that is better than everyone else?  Try it sometime.  Ask a gambler who thinks he is good "why are you good?"

With that question alone you can pretty much figure it out.

 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #1255
Vanzack is a pro, don't go there bro, he makes money in other areas...I'm sure he had or has a job elsewhere, don't call him arrogant, the guy knows this business, it's almost IMPOSSIBLE without a full time job or even a part time job to be successful in gambling, CG needs a job, that would make him unstoppable...I expect him to get a girlfriend soon, too, which will make his capping suffer more as well, the man needs a job, no young man should ever sit around and do ONE thing...He's just spooked cause his last job sucked, he thinks all jobs are bad like his last one.
 
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Posted: #1256

Seems like everyone has staunch money management beliefs and theories on this thread.  Lots of talk about "long haul" profitability.

The old "flat bet" strategy with a 52.5% breakeven point....coupled with betting a flat 1-3% of your bankroll...eliminate "variance" and play for the "long haul".  This is how fund managers bet.

Also, many believe in developing "systems" that generate plays that are consistent in their nature....every play has to fit a specific criteria, with specific characteristics.

A few thoughts on the subjects of "flat betting" and "systems", from a reformed "flatbettor":

1) Flat betting poses a major problem.  The bankroll has to be large in order to facilitate a decent living when focusing on a 3-5% edge as your  basis for profit.  Also, you have to take as many bets as possible in order to generate enough gross revenue to lock in a healthy 5% after vig and losses.  Both aspects of flat betting essentially bang out small bettors. Simply put, the juice just grinds you up.

2) Systems are problematic.  Most systems are based on historical data, which makes them inherently flawed. Essentially, when one applies a static system with concrete tenants to a dynamic situation (pricing sporting events), one can expect extreme runs of wins and losses. Without a dynamic strategy on how to manage a "system", ie on when to pull the plug on a "system", then the system is worthless.

3) "Flat betting" and "systems" look great on paper. They make for great theory, and discussion. But, in the end, the only thing the academic knows about betting and speculation is that they want no part of it.

SO, what does matter?

1) Mental Capital. Always look to preserve your "mental capital". We can't control what happens on the field, court or racetrack...but we can control how we react to it.

2) Take breaks.  I have been day trading crude oil futures to make a living for the last 4 years.  When I get my teeth kicked in I take a break. It took me lots of money to learn that lesson. Sometimes its what you don't lose that makes a guy profitable.

3) Love what you do.  If you truly love what you do, then the energy will be there to get the job done. The pride and expertise will show up in the work.  Handicapping, trading, and speculation in general is no different.

4) Keep things simple on and off the field.

 

All in all, there is no "correct" way to speculate. At the end of the day, we keep score with dollars....the rest is just theory and BS. The guy whom taught me how to trade futures had a saying..."always make money....just always make money." 

He was right.

Best of luck with your picks CG.....keep it simple, and do what you know how to do.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #1257
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Don't be an emotional fanboy.

You can call me arrogant.  That's fine.  I am giving him advice because he asked me to - and because I am qualified to give advice.  In other words, I know what I am talking about.

But this isn't about me.  And it isn't about telling someone they are going to succeed while watching them drive off of a cliff - there are plenty here giving awful advice because they themselves don't have an understanding of the concepts at hand.

I do have that understanding.  And I will tell you - that the most interesting thing you can say to someone who thinks they can be profitable at sportsbetting - is simply "WHY?".   The first reaction is usually silence - because they have never thought about it.  Are they gifted?  Can they really have a gut feel that is better than everyone else?  Try it sometime.  Ask a gambler who thinks he is good "why are you good?"

With that question alone you can pretty much figure it out.

 


He does his own research and has his way of capping games. He will prove you wrong soon
 
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Posted: #1258
Quote Originally Posted by WSTgekko:


He does his own research and has his way of capping games. He will prove you wrong soon

I like how you can post that "he will prove me wrong soon", basically violating everything you accused me of above in your first post.  Proof?  Based on what?

Don't let an idea be a bad idea just because it wasn't your idea.  Maybe there is merit in what I am saying.  And at the same time, maybe it isn't comfortable to hear. 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #1259
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

Seems like everyone has staunch money management beliefs and theories on this thread.  Lots of talk about "long haul" profitability.

The old "flat bet" strategy with a 52.5% breakeven point....coupled with betting a flat 1-3% of your bankroll...eliminate "variance" and play for the "long haul".  This is how fund managers bet.

Also, many believe in developing "systems" that generate plays that are consistent in their nature....every play has to fit a specific criteria, with specific characteristics.

A few thoughts on the subjects of "flat betting" and "systems", from a reformed "flatbettor":

1) Flat betting poses a major problem.  The bankroll has to be large in order to facilitate a decent living when focusing on a 3-5% edge as your  basis for profit.  Also, you have to take as many bets as possible in order to generate enough gross revenue to lock in a healthy 5% after vig and losses.  Both aspects of flat betting essentially bang out small bettors. Simply put, the juice just grinds you up.

2) Systems are problematic.  Most systems are based on historical data, which makes them inherently flawed. Essentially, when one applies a static system with concrete tenants to a dynamic situation (pricing sporting events), one can expect extreme runs of wins and losses. Without a dynamic strategy on how to manage a "system", ie on when to pull the plug on a "system", then the system is worthless.

3) "Flat betting" and "systems" look great on paper. They make for great theory, and discussion. But, in the end, the only thing the academic knows about betting and speculation is that they want no part of it.

SO, what does matter?

1) Mental Capital. Always look to preserve your "mental capital". We can't control what happens on the field, court or racetrack...but we can control how we react to it.

2) Take breaks.  I have been day trading crude oil futures to make a living for the last 4 years.  When I get my teeth kicked in I take a break. It took me lots of money to learn that lesson. Sometimes its what you don't lose that makes a guy profitable.

3) Love what you do.  If you truly love what you do, then the energy will be there to get the job done. The pride and expertise will show up in the work.  Handicapping, trading, and speculation in general is no different.

4) Keep things simple on and off the field.

 

All in all, there is no "correct" way to speculate. At the end of the day, we keep score with dollars....the rest is just theory and BS. The guy whom taught me how to trade futures had a saying..."always make money....just always make money." 

He was right.

Best of luck with your picks CG.....keep it simple, and do what you know how to do.

 

Very good post. Any money management tips or habits you'd care to share?

 
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Posted: #1260
Both games tipping off!! Let's go terps and boilers!!
 
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Posted: #1261
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

CG - quit talking in terms of "days".

Days are an arbitrary time period set by you to help you compartmentalize and organize.  Forge the concept altogether.

A winning day or a losing day should mean nothing to you - just like a set amount you bet per day should not exist.  This goes to what I posted above - if a wager qualifies as a play - you should bet it no matter if you have already bet 20 other wagers that day - and if it doesn't qualify - you should not bet it.

Part of the problem of having a non-quantitative approach (gut feel) is that you tend to bet by days.  You have no way to compare if todays 8th best game is better than last Mondays 1st best game.  I get the feeling that you wouldn't bet todays 8th best game because you limit yourself to a certain maximum number of plays per day - even though todays 8th best game is better than tomorrows 1st best game that you will bet.

This is tough concept to get out of because as humans we do this with everything.  It helps us navigate the world.  But it makes no sense in the gambling world.  People that hedge say this all the time.  They say "it is guaranteed money" - but they are thinking about that bet on that day - forgetting that over the course of many hedges they are giving away money.

It is counter-intuitive, but important to understand.


I love this post.  There are days when maybe 20 games meet my criteria and it's like wow, then another day with a similar amount of games where only 4 or 5 games are plays.  I appreciate Van's posts he is a great asset to the forum.


 
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Posted: #1262
Vanzack is a legend here and I respect him very much. For him to say I'll be home before football season is his opinion in which he or anyone is entitled to it's freedom of speech. I am simply saying not only will I be out here then but I'll also be profitable going into my main income season which is football. That is simply my opinion and time will tell... I doubt many thought I could hit at 65% through my first 26 plays either. So I am just doing what I love and going to stay the course and let's stop speculating and just watch my journey and see where the chips will fall...
 
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Posted: #1263
And thus far my money management has been conservative/smart as I haven't even been here two weeks yet.. that is just a simple fact. All but one of my bets have been 2% or less than my entire 30K bankroll and ONE bet in which so many said I raised too high was still just over 3% of my total bankroll. Ucla +3 in which I hit last night...
 
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Posted: #1264

Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

Vanzack is a legend here and I respect him very much. For him to say I'll be home before football season is his opinion in which he or anyone is entitled to it's freedom of speech. I am simply saying not only will I be out here then but I'll also be profitable going into my main income season which is football. That is simply my opinion and time will tell... I doubt many thought I could hit at 65% through my first 26 plays either. So I am just doing what I love and going to stay the course and let's stop speculating and just watch my journey and see where the chips will fall...

I am wrong all the time.  I hope this is one of those times.

WHEN you are out there in Sept for football - consider joining the Supercontest.  Its a lot of fun.  And join our weekly thread here if you do.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #1265
Quote Originally Posted by SidePiece:

 

Very good post. Any money management tips or habits you'd care to share?

Welcome to Covers.com Sidepiece,

Honestly, I don't have any special strategies or holy grails to share.  The same old axioms apply.....don't get over extended, don't chase, cut back when you are losing, yadda yadda yadda.

One thing that has proven to be profitable for me is the notion of "shooting the moon" with house money.  If I take a larger than usual risk (by my standards), then I make sure that it is taken with a majority, if not completely with house money.

Again, not much new there........if the payoff on a bet or trade is potentially lucrative, AND I am putting up won or earned capital as per the risk, then I am exponentially the benefactor if the bet (or trade) comes in.  If I lose, then it is back to the grind with my initial stake intact.

Of course, the challenge lies in making the "house money" to begin with, and then having the discipline to wait for the right opportunity to arise.

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #1266
Vanzack how does that contest work? 1.5K buy in and then first places gets how much? I only briefly heard about it
 
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Posted: #1267
Painter has to tell his team to simply just pound the ball down low all second half. Purdue should bully this soft Indiana team in the second half if they use that approach. Maryland with a decent lead early too. Want this 2-0 K night!!
 
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Posted: #1268

Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

Vanzack how does that contest work? 1.5K buy in and then first places gets how much? I only briefly heard about it

1.5k buy in, and in the past the top 30 spots pay.

You pick 5 games a week ATS, for a total of 85 picks.

I have an idea they will expand the pay slots this year as the contest has grown so much.  This year the winner got 750k (roughly).  I came in 9th last year and won 42k.

Winner has historically been right around 65% I think.  This year the guy just went nuts and blew away the field with some silly percentage.  Google the supercontest - lots of info on their site.

Its a lot of fun.

 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #1269
Oh wow I'm def going to join. Oh wait I'll be home though right? Lol. Sounds fun tho all joking aside. 42K damn. What % u pick at? Check my season long nfl thread I was right at 58/59%
 
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Posted: #1270
Maryland should be ashamed of themselves only up one at home to pathetic road weary Nebraska. Wow lol possible public bloodbath here. Still tho anyone would have to be sick to have bet against the huskers road losing streak. Maryland hopefully blows out these clowns second half
 
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Posted: #1271

Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

Oh wow I'm def going to join. Oh wait I'll be home though right? Lol. Sounds fun tho all joking aside. 42K damn. What % u pick at? Check my season long nfl thread I was right at 58/59%

Last season I went 52-30-3 to come in 9th.
This season I went 51-34 to come in about 60th (I think, cant remember exactly)

The contest has grown so much that the 30 payout spots seem like they are headed for a reboot.  There were 1,400 entries this season.

And if you are home you can still get a proxy to do your picks for you. 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #1272
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Since you asked...

I am going to say this factually.  It might sound harsh, but it is not meant to be that way.  I already told you I am a fan of you and your videos and am hoping for the best.

That being said...  I would bet a large amount of money that you are busto by football season.  That means your current bankroll - without getting a job.

The reason is simple. "Gut feel" successful longterm profitable gamblers do not exist IMO.  They are the great white whales.  There are months, even years - where gut feel gamblers can thrive.  But it wont work longterm - or at least I have yet to see it work longterm.

To add to that - nobody goes 57% - 60%+ year after year on gut feel.  And certainly nobody goes 57-60% year after year without doing some serious line shopping strategies.

The guys who do that percentage year after year do it by not only having predictive statistics models, but also by having predictive line movement models that pinpoint precise times and lines to buy.  And most importantly - these guys KNOW HOW AND WHY THEY WIN.  They are able to articulate the conditions necessary for them to win, and what specific segment they are able to exploit.

A guy who says "I don't know how I win" is doomed.  A guy who wakes up and "caps" by reading previews and getting a gut feel, and then drives down to a sportsbook and bets in to -110 lines (often missing the best line) is doomed.

The biggest predictor of a longterm gamblers success is simply by how much he can beat the closing line.  And to do this, it takes a lot more than just gut feel.

Once again, just being honest here.  A lot of people don't like it when I am honest - most say it is too harsh - but I hope you take it in the way it is intended - for you to possibly take some of it to heart.

GL


Hey Van,
Are you stating that no professionals consistently hit over 57% without the use of "predictive statistics models" or "predictive line movement models that pinpoint precise times and lines to buy"???


 
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Posted: #1273
My two games look like will be close can go 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2 it looks like. Hopefully maryland gets lead early in second then huskers should crumble like always
 
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Posted: #1274
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:


Hey Van,
Are you stating that no professionals consistently hit over 57% without the use of "predictive statistics models" or "predictive line movement models that pinpoint precise times and lines to buy"???


I was stating a strong opinion.  Not fact.  But I do strongly believe what I posted above.

I am open to the other side of the debate though.  If someone has a different experience than I do - please share.  But all I have heard on this subject - and all that I have experienced personally - is a lot of conjecture but nobody that actually has first hand experience.  I know roughly 20 people that gamble for a living.  Not one of them does it by gut feel.  That is my experience.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
 
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Posted: #1275
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I was stating a strong opinion.  Not fact.  But I do strongly believe what I posted above.

I am open to the other side of the debate though.  If someone has a different experience than I do - please share.  But all I have heard on this subject - and all that I have experienced personally - is a lot of conjecture but nobody that actually has first hand experience.  I know roughly 20 people that gamble for a living.  Not one of them does it by gut feel.  That is my experience.


I know a couple dozen guys out here that gamble for a living, and do it the old fashioned way. Reading game reports/injury reports etc, but more than anything they watch a shiitload of games so they have a feel for the teams/players/coaches. Maybe they are lieing to me about their record/income, but just wanted to add another opinion to this debate. I respect you a ton, and am not disagreeing with what you've  stated, I just think there is more than one way to be successfull in this career
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