2/19/15. Got two for today. Please with the lines and think I'll get the best number on both of my plays now do about to lock in. $550/$500 on each... Don't want to risk losing more than vig between yesterday and today... And I like both plays equal amount that is the reason for no K play on either. Will post plays when I get home. Don't like to text and drive. Especially out here I love it out here but the drivers R BAD
0
2/19/15. Got two for today. Please with the lines and think I'll get the best number on both of my plays now do about to lock in. $550/$500 on each... Don't want to risk losing more than vig between yesterday and today... And I like both plays equal amount that is the reason for no K play on either. Will post plays when I get home. Don't like to text and drive. Especially out here I love it out here but the drivers R BAD
College again congrats You said you have few friends maybe messing with you Can it be TDOG25 First he said you will be losing your Apt by June You will be back in Jersey soon Tells you how to spend your bankroll Then he jumps on the bandwagon & want you to give him shoutout on your video Saw your video today It was good I know your busy Got ? For you again I told you in UCLA game You consider going ML on game a little That way hit both ways have safety net Also halftime bet for small amount Example key players in foul trouble , injury , or team looks like crap Example last night I think you would hit both on last nights game Believe me your hot I am not Football is where I bet more and do better In fact if I didn't see your thread I wouldn't be betting College BB Today tAking Jesse Schultz pick Oregon St +9.5/ Utah He says Oregon st won last 8 of 10 @ home Gary Payton jr is on the team Was 3-1 yesterday Won $58 Small player I'm like you I need watch games especially amount you bet That's whole reason I'm busy bartending theses night s So I can't see them that's why I bet small Waiting for your play I will be out in March Is Tdog25 one of your bros back I. Jersey If not this guys little crazy Waiting for your pickThanks
0
College again congrats You said you have few friends maybe messing with you Can it be TDOG25 First he said you will be losing your Apt by June You will be back in Jersey soon Tells you how to spend your bankroll Then he jumps on the bandwagon & want you to give him shoutout on your video Saw your video today It was good I know your busy Got ? For you again I told you in UCLA game You consider going ML on game a little That way hit both ways have safety net Also halftime bet for small amount Example key players in foul trouble , injury , or team looks like crap Example last night I think you would hit both on last nights game Believe me your hot I am not Football is where I bet more and do better In fact if I didn't see your thread I wouldn't be betting College BB Today tAking Jesse Schultz pick Oregon St +9.5/ Utah He says Oregon st won last 8 of 10 @ home Gary Payton jr is on the team Was 3-1 yesterday Won $58 Small player I'm like you I need watch games especially amount you bet That's whole reason I'm busy bartending theses night s So I can't see them that's why I bet small Waiting for your play I will be out in March Is Tdog25 one of your bros back I. Jersey If not this guys little crazy Waiting for your pickThanks
Everyone hopes he does well out there. Some people in this thread have offered constructive advice, some are trying to live vicariously through CG and still others are pure jock sniffers. Which category do you fall into?? Again, if you don't understand the difference between betting philosophy and "a play" you are unqualified for the first category.
I doubt it. This is a pretty petty place and I'm betting that a large minority (if not majority) are rooting for him to go bust.
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Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:
Everyone hopes he does well out there. Some people in this thread have offered constructive advice, some are trying to live vicariously through CG and still others are pure jock sniffers. Which category do you fall into?? Again, if you don't understand the difference between betting philosophy and "a play" you are unqualified for the first category.
I doubt it. This is a pretty petty place and I'm betting that a large minority (if not majority) are rooting for him to go bust.
College again congrats You said you have few friends maybe messing with you Can it be TDOG25 First he said you will be losing your Apt by June You will be back in Jersey soon Tells you how to spend your bankroll Then he jumps on the bandwagon & want you to give him shoutout on your video Saw your video today It was good I know your busy Got ? For you again I told you in UCLA game You consider going ML on game a little That way hit both ways have safety net Also halftime bet for small amount Example key players in foul trouble , injury , or team looks like crap Example last night I think you would hit both on last nights game Believe me your hot I am not Football is where I bet more and do better In fact if I didn't see your thread I wouldn't be betting College BB Today tAking Jesse Schultz pick Oregon St +9.5/ Utah He says Oregon st won last 8 of 10 @ home Gary Payton jr is on the team Was 3-1 yesterday Won $58 Small player I'm like you I need watch games especially amount you bet That's whole reason I'm busy bartending theses night s So I can't see them that's why I bet small Waiting for your play I will be out in March Is Tdog25 one of your bros back I. Jersey If not this guys little crazy Waiting for your pickThanks
It's always difficult to read through your posts due to your lack of regard for punctuation, but I said before the game it was an awful idea and that doesn't change simply because the miracle happened.
Taking a +3 dog and -150 fave ml pregame at the same time is just ridiculous.
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Quote Originally Posted by baronman:
College again congrats You said you have few friends maybe messing with you Can it be TDOG25 First he said you will be losing your Apt by June You will be back in Jersey soon Tells you how to spend your bankroll Then he jumps on the bandwagon & want you to give him shoutout on your video Saw your video today It was good I know your busy Got ? For you again I told you in UCLA game You consider going ML on game a little That way hit both ways have safety net Also halftime bet for small amount Example key players in foul trouble , injury , or team looks like crap Example last night I think you would hit both on last nights game Believe me your hot I am not Football is where I bet more and do better In fact if I didn't see your thread I wouldn't be betting College BB Today tAking Jesse Schultz pick Oregon St +9.5/ Utah He says Oregon st won last 8 of 10 @ home Gary Payton jr is on the team Was 3-1 yesterday Won $58 Small player I'm like you I need watch games especially amount you bet That's whole reason I'm busy bartending theses night s So I can't see them that's why I bet small Waiting for your play I will be out in March Is Tdog25 one of your bros back I. Jersey If not this guys little crazy Waiting for your pickThanks
It's always difficult to read through your posts due to your lack of regard for punctuation, but I said before the game it was an awful idea and that doesn't change simply because the miracle happened.
Taking a +3 dog and -150 fave ml pregame at the same time is just ridiculous.
It's always difficult to read through your posts due to your lack of regard for punctuation, but I said before the game it was an awful idea and that doesn't change simply because the miracle happened.
Taking a +3 dog and -150 fave ml pregame at the same time is just ridiculous.
You're not the only one. Baronman is a complete shitbird. He comes on here polluting the thread with his shitbum 5$ picks thinking anyone gives a crap. And that isn't even factoring in the abysmal grammar and sage "advice" he gives (ie. betting AZ ml -150 and taking UCLA -3 -110...really dude???)
Keep up the good work CG. I'm pulling for you and enjoy the thread. PEACE
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Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
It's always difficult to read through your posts due to your lack of regard for punctuation, but I said before the game it was an awful idea and that doesn't change simply because the miracle happened.
Taking a +3 dog and -150 fave ml pregame at the same time is just ridiculous.
You're not the only one. Baronman is a complete shitbird. He comes on here polluting the thread with his shitbum 5$ picks thinking anyone gives a crap. And that isn't even factoring in the abysmal grammar and sage "advice" he gives (ie. betting AZ ml -150 and taking UCLA -3 -110...really dude???)
Keep up the good work CG. I'm pulling for you and enjoy the thread. PEACE
A question for vanzack or anybody else who cares to answer...
52.38% is a misnomer. If you are adjusting your wagers in proportion to your fluctuating bankroll then you can manipulate the "Break Even" percentage. Can you not?
No, you can't. If you can't hit 53%, your bankroll will never increase.
The only way to make money winning 53% or less of straight bets is to bet random amounts and hope you win your big bets and lose the small ones.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:
A question for vanzack or anybody else who cares to answer...
52.38% is a misnomer. If you are adjusting your wagers in proportion to your fluctuating bankroll then you can manipulate the "Break Even" percentage. Can you not?
No, you can't. If you can't hit 53%, your bankroll will never increase.
The only way to make money winning 53% or less of straight bets is to bet random amounts and hope you win your big bets and lose the small ones.
thanks fellas. locked in my two plays today earlier at around 10:20 am pacific
2/19/15
Maryland Terrapins -8 (-110) $550/$500
Simply put I feel Nebraska is the worst road team in College basketball. They are horrific and are 1-7 ATS on the road and routinely lose by 15-25 on the road. Nebraska is playing awful team basketball and are poorly coached.. I will fade this team until they lose a road game by 10 pts or less. Terps should roll these bumbs like every other home team has basically done.
Purdue Boilermakers +4.5 (-110) $550/$500
Love the way Purdue plays ball. Physical team who pounds you down low but also has some decent three pt shooting. They dominated Indiana at West Laffeyete earlier this year and I feel they are touch matchup for Indiana. Indiana is a very soft team who relies on threes and I think the Purdue D will be a pest to them this evening. I think this is a 3 pt game either way hence my bet with the LIVE dog imo.
bol all
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thanks fellas. locked in my two plays today earlier at around 10:20 am pacific
2/19/15
Maryland Terrapins -8 (-110) $550/$500
Simply put I feel Nebraska is the worst road team in College basketball. They are horrific and are 1-7 ATS on the road and routinely lose by 15-25 on the road. Nebraska is playing awful team basketball and are poorly coached.. I will fade this team until they lose a road game by 10 pts or less. Terps should roll these bumbs like every other home team has basically done.
Purdue Boilermakers +4.5 (-110) $550/$500
Love the way Purdue plays ball. Physical team who pounds you down low but also has some decent three pt shooting. They dominated Indiana at West Laffeyete earlier this year and I feel they are touch matchup for Indiana. Indiana is a very soft team who relies on threes and I think the Purdue D will be a pest to them this evening. I think this is a 3 pt game either way hence my bet with the LIVE dog imo.
Bring it on Sidepiece ,ranger & anyone else out there Yes ranger it would hit nog miracle The question was for College Gambler Not you I don't want your opinion . You don't even put any plays out there College I will play your plays I also took Oregon State +7( thought line was 9)Taking Westgeko pick Louisana -4.5 . My pick USC +24/Arizona. My pick way to many points in conference game Also College Gamblers picks You guys sorry about my threads really hard when I'm bartending sometimes & responding I laugh because I've been on covers for years I watch how people like to critical about others 1) they cuss You out 2) they threaten to beat you up ( be careful what you wish for You don't know me or I you)3) a lot bettors say they BETLARGE$$$ & less than half of them show us the ticket 4) seems like this group critique my English language 5) Also this sight you guys tell College Gambler what to do 6) this goes for most of you Put your $$$! Where your mouth is Lets see your PLAYS NOW not the next day . Saying I had great day I know you might have good day Thanks to College Got to go Hosted bar tonight Top Shelf 2 hour package 800 people Go College Gambler OUT
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Bring it on Sidepiece ,ranger & anyone else out there Yes ranger it would hit nog miracle The question was for College Gambler Not you I don't want your opinion . You don't even put any plays out there College I will play your plays I also took Oregon State +7( thought line was 9)Taking Westgeko pick Louisana -4.5 . My pick USC +24/Arizona. My pick way to many points in conference game Also College Gamblers picks You guys sorry about my threads really hard when I'm bartending sometimes & responding I laugh because I've been on covers for years I watch how people like to critical about others 1) they cuss You out 2) they threaten to beat you up ( be careful what you wish for You don't know me or I you)3) a lot bettors say they BETLARGE$$$ & less than half of them show us the ticket 4) seems like this group critique my English language 5) Also this sight you guys tell College Gambler what to do 6) this goes for most of you Put your $$$! Where your mouth is Lets see your PLAYS NOW not the next day . Saying I had great day I know you might have good day Thanks to College Got to go Hosted bar tonight Top Shelf 2 hour package 800 people Go College Gambler OUT
2/19/15. Got two for today. Please with the lines and think I'll get the best number on both of my plays now do about to lock in. $550/$500 on each... Don't want to risk losing more than vig between yesterday and today... And I like both plays equal amount that is the reason for no K play on either. Will post plays when I get home. Don't like to text and drive. Especially out here I love it out here but the drivers R BAD
It's not the locals who drive badly here. You got people from Cali driving like they're going to the ER room and you've got people from Utah driving like they're in a funeral procession. That's not to mention the tourists from the other 47 states importing their driving habits. The locals are just trying not to get hit.
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Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
2/19/15. Got two for today. Please with the lines and think I'll get the best number on both of my plays now do about to lock in. $550/$500 on each... Don't want to risk losing more than vig between yesterday and today... And I like both plays equal amount that is the reason for no K play on either. Will post plays when I get home. Don't like to text and drive. Especially out here I love it out here but the drivers R BAD
It's not the locals who drive badly here. You got people from Cali driving like they're going to the ER room and you've got people from Utah driving like they're in a funeral procession. That's not to mention the tourists from the other 47 states importing their driving habits. The locals are just trying not to get hit.
My good friend Paul lives in Vegas He said he saw car accident in front him Guy was dead when he got to him. I saw accident in sept Also that week had to hit horn because hotel bus driver almost clipped couple people jay walking Bus driver had tobw going 60 in 40 mile zone Also I'm sure the locals & tourists tend to be drinking Be careful out their College
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My good friend Paul lives in Vegas He said he saw car accident in front him Guy was dead when he got to him. I saw accident in sept Also that week had to hit horn because hotel bus driver almost clipped couple people jay walking Bus driver had tobw going 60 in 40 mile zone Also I'm sure the locals & tourists tend to be drinking Be careful out their College
My good friend Paul lives in Vegas He said he saw car accident in front him Guy was dead when he got to him. I saw accident in sept Also that week had to hit horn because hotel bus driver almost clipped couple people jay walking Bus driver had tobw going 60 in 40 mile zone Also I'm sure the locals & tourists tend to be drinking Be careful out their College
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My good friend Paul lives in Vegas He said he saw car accident in front him Guy was dead when he got to him. I saw accident in sept Also that week had to hit horn because hotel bus driver almost clipped couple people jay walking Bus driver had tobw going 60 in 40 mile zone Also I'm sure the locals & tourists tend to be drinking Be careful out their College
Speaking of bad drivers, Just got backed into by a stripper in parking lot an hour ago. Luckily nothing serious, she gets out and screams "oh my god, my beamer!"
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Speaking of bad drivers, Just got backed into by a stripper in parking lot an hour ago. Luckily nothing serious, she gets out and screams "oh my god, my beamer!"
Man, what a hit last night, I'll bet you had hemmeroids after that one...Man, I like this kid....Give us a shout out in your youtube man..We love you so much man. Did you buy a ps4 for your apartment man?
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Man, what a hit last night, I'll bet you had hemmeroids after that one...Man, I like this kid....Give us a shout out in your youtube man..We love you so much man. Did you buy a ps4 for your apartment man?
My good friend Paul lives in Vegas He said he saw car accident in front him Guy was dead when he got to him. I saw accident in sept Also that week had to hit horn because hotel bus driver almost clipped couple people jay walking Bus driver had tobw going 60 in 40 mile zone Also I'm sure the locals & tourists tend to be drinking Be careful out their College
Dude, you are so negative man...
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Quote Originally Posted by baronman:
My good friend Paul lives in Vegas He said he saw car accident in front him Guy was dead when he got to him. I saw accident in sept Also that week had to hit horn because hotel bus driver almost clipped couple people jay walking Bus driver had tobw going 60 in 40 mile zone Also I'm sure the locals & tourists tend to be drinking Be careful out their College
I respect your opinion Vanzack what is your thoughts about that though and be honest?
thanks
Since you asked...
I am going to say this factually. It might sound harsh, but it is not meant to be that way. I already told you I am a fan of you and your videos and am hoping for the best.
That being said... I would bet a large amount of money that you are busto by football season. That means your current bankroll - without getting a job.
The reason is simple. "Gut feel" successful longterm profitable gamblers do not exist IMO. They are the great white whales. There are months, even years - where gut feel gamblers can thrive. But it wont work longterm - or at least I have yet to see it work longterm.
To add to that - nobody goes 57% - 60%+ year after year on gut feel. And certainly nobody goes 57-60% year after year without doing some serious line shopping strategies.
The guys who do that percentage year after year do it by not only having predictive statistics models, but also by having predictive line movement models that pinpoint precise times and lines to buy. And most importantly - these guys KNOW HOW AND WHY THEY WIN. They are able to articulate the conditions necessary for them to win, and what specific segment they are able to exploit.
A guy who says "I don't know how I win" is doomed. A guy who wakes up and "caps" by reading previews and getting a gut feel, and then drives down to a sportsbook and bets in to -110 lines (often missing the best line) is doomed.
The biggest predictor of a longterm gamblers success is simply by how much he can beat the closing line. And to do this, it takes a lot more than just gut feel.
Once again, just being honest here. A lot of people don't like it when I am honest - most say it is too harsh - but I hope you take it in the way it is intended - for you to possibly take some of it to heart.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
I respect your opinion Vanzack what is your thoughts about that though and be honest?
thanks
Since you asked...
I am going to say this factually. It might sound harsh, but it is not meant to be that way. I already told you I am a fan of you and your videos and am hoping for the best.
That being said... I would bet a large amount of money that you are busto by football season. That means your current bankroll - without getting a job.
The reason is simple. "Gut feel" successful longterm profitable gamblers do not exist IMO. They are the great white whales. There are months, even years - where gut feel gamblers can thrive. But it wont work longterm - or at least I have yet to see it work longterm.
To add to that - nobody goes 57% - 60%+ year after year on gut feel. And certainly nobody goes 57-60% year after year without doing some serious line shopping strategies.
The guys who do that percentage year after year do it by not only having predictive statistics models, but also by having predictive line movement models that pinpoint precise times and lines to buy. And most importantly - these guys KNOW HOW AND WHY THEY WIN. They are able to articulate the conditions necessary for them to win, and what specific segment they are able to exploit.
A guy who says "I don't know how I win" is doomed. A guy who wakes up and "caps" by reading previews and getting a gut feel, and then drives down to a sportsbook and bets in to -110 lines (often missing the best line) is doomed.
The biggest predictor of a longterm gamblers success is simply by how much he can beat the closing line. And to do this, it takes a lot more than just gut feel.
Once again, just being honest here. A lot of people don't like it when I am honest - most say it is too harsh - but I hope you take it in the way it is intended - for you to possibly take some of it to heart.
I think what CG is trying to say (and you touched on it briefly) is that yes, you might be right in saying that you are risking a smaller percentage of your bankroll when you only make 1 bet a day at a higher denomination but it's a heck of a lot easier to go 0-1 in a day as opposed to 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, etc.
So when you do have those 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3 days it is a lot less devastating on your bankroll as opposed to going 0-1 4 or 5 straight days at 1k a pop.
For example---if you had broken up that 0-4 streak you had 2 days ago into 0-1, 0-1, 0-1, 0-1 you'd be down $4,400 dollars as opposed to the
-$2,090 dollars you lost by having an atrocious 0-4 day, betting $550 a game (which happens and will continue to happen) and the odds of you going 0-4 in more than one day in a row are pretty astronomical. BUT IF you did go 0-4 two days in a row at betting $550 a game then you'd be down -$4,180 (give or take a few bucks depending on the juice). Which is still less than you going 0-1 four days in a row at betting $1,100 a game.
So imagine worst case scenario….you bet $1,100 a game one game a day and end up going 0-8 (odds are low but this is more realistic than going 0-4 2 consecutive days in a row). That means you'd be down $8,800 (assuming -110 juice). That's a big damn hit to your bankroll in just one week of betting. Your bankroll would decrease roughly 25%. Which is a ton, especially when you are dealing with the kind of money you are and considering this is now your job.
So I'm not trying to speak on the behalf of Vanzack BUT I think he made the "implosion" comment simply because of your rationale in post #1201 (at the very top of this page). Because to be honest CG, your rationale in post #1201 is backwards and probably not the best way to approach your betting strategy. I understand increasing your wager sizes some as your bankroll grows but be patient man. You've made a few K in just a week man, compare that to what you'd of earned in New Jersey during a 50 hour work week. I think it puts things in perspective.
I'm rooting for you as much as anyone buddy! Just thought I'd stop in with a little constructive criticism and hopefully shed some light on Vanzack's comment.
BOL today CG---let's pick a couple of winners and live the dream man.
PS---I now live on the east coast and am very jealous of that 3 hour time difference…I mean Christ, you can actually watch all the games and then go to bed at a "decent hour"
Let's get that
Good explanation.
It is very similar to diversification in your 401k. This concept is why mutual funds exist (and to make market managers rich, which is another story...)
I worry about CGs sophistication (not an insult) with these concepts. Short term - no issues - but longer term these concepts always catch up to you.
And I am rooting for him as much as everyone else here is.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by ad1260:
CG---
I think what CG is trying to say (and you touched on it briefly) is that yes, you might be right in saying that you are risking a smaller percentage of your bankroll when you only make 1 bet a day at a higher denomination but it's a heck of a lot easier to go 0-1 in a day as opposed to 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, etc.
So when you do have those 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3 days it is a lot less devastating on your bankroll as opposed to going 0-1 4 or 5 straight days at 1k a pop.
For example---if you had broken up that 0-4 streak you had 2 days ago into 0-1, 0-1, 0-1, 0-1 you'd be down $4,400 dollars as opposed to the
-$2,090 dollars you lost by having an atrocious 0-4 day, betting $550 a game (which happens and will continue to happen) and the odds of you going 0-4 in more than one day in a row are pretty astronomical. BUT IF you did go 0-4 two days in a row at betting $550 a game then you'd be down -$4,180 (give or take a few bucks depending on the juice). Which is still less than you going 0-1 four days in a row at betting $1,100 a game.
So imagine worst case scenario….you bet $1,100 a game one game a day and end up going 0-8 (odds are low but this is more realistic than going 0-4 2 consecutive days in a row). That means you'd be down $8,800 (assuming -110 juice). That's a big damn hit to your bankroll in just one week of betting. Your bankroll would decrease roughly 25%. Which is a ton, especially when you are dealing with the kind of money you are and considering this is now your job.
So I'm not trying to speak on the behalf of Vanzack BUT I think he made the "implosion" comment simply because of your rationale in post #1201 (at the very top of this page). Because to be honest CG, your rationale in post #1201 is backwards and probably not the best way to approach your betting strategy. I understand increasing your wager sizes some as your bankroll grows but be patient man. You've made a few K in just a week man, compare that to what you'd of earned in New Jersey during a 50 hour work week. I think it puts things in perspective.
I'm rooting for you as much as anyone buddy! Just thought I'd stop in with a little constructive criticism and hopefully shed some light on Vanzack's comment.
BOL today CG---let's pick a couple of winners and live the dream man.
PS---I now live on the east coast and am very jealous of that 3 hour time difference…I mean Christ, you can actually watch all the games and then go to bed at a "decent hour"
Let's get that
Good explanation.
It is very similar to diversification in your 401k. This concept is why mutual funds exist (and to make market managers rich, which is another story...)
I worry about CGs sophistication (not an insult) with these concepts. Short term - no issues - but longer term these concepts always catch up to you.
And I am rooting for him as much as everyone else here is.
Thanks for ur opinions Vanzack. No hard feelings I respect u regardless. Everyone entitled to there own opinion. I gurantee you tho I will prove u wrong and not only be here by football season but I'll be up $ also. Time will tell but I will prove u wrong sir
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Thanks for ur opinions Vanzack. No hard feelings I respect u regardless. Everyone entitled to there own opinion. I gurantee you tho I will prove u wrong and not only be here by football season but I'll be up $ also. Time will tell but I will prove u wrong sir
Days are an arbitrary time period set by you to help you compartmentalize and organize. Forge the concept altogether.
A winning day or a losing day should mean nothing to you - just like a set amount you bet per day should not exist. This goes to what I posted above - if a wager qualifies as a play - you should bet it no matter if you have already bet 20 other wagers that day - and if it doesn't qualify - you should not bet it.
Part of the problem of having a non-quantitative approach (gut feel) is that you tend to bet by days. You have no way to compare if todays 8th best game is better than last Mondays 1st best game. I get the feeling that you wouldn't bet todays 8th best game because you limit yourself to a certain maximum number of plays per day - even though todays 8th best game is better than tomorrows 1st best game that you will bet.
This is tough concept to get out of because as humans we do this with everything. It helps us navigate the world. But it makes no sense in the gambling world. People that hedge say this all the time. They say "it is guaranteed money" - but they are thinking about that bet on that day - forgetting that over the course of many hedges they are giving away money.
It is counter-intuitive, but important to understand.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
CG - quit talking in terms of "days".
Days are an arbitrary time period set by you to help you compartmentalize and organize. Forge the concept altogether.
A winning day or a losing day should mean nothing to you - just like a set amount you bet per day should not exist. This goes to what I posted above - if a wager qualifies as a play - you should bet it no matter if you have already bet 20 other wagers that day - and if it doesn't qualify - you should not bet it.
Part of the problem of having a non-quantitative approach (gut feel) is that you tend to bet by days. You have no way to compare if todays 8th best game is better than last Mondays 1st best game. I get the feeling that you wouldn't bet todays 8th best game because you limit yourself to a certain maximum number of plays per day - even though todays 8th best game is better than tomorrows 1st best game that you will bet.
This is tough concept to get out of because as humans we do this with everything. It helps us navigate the world. But it makes no sense in the gambling world. People that hedge say this all the time. They say "it is guaranteed money" - but they are thinking about that bet on that day - forgetting that over the course of many hedges they are giving away money.
It is counter-intuitive, but important to understand.
I am going to say this factually. It might sound harsh, but it is not meant to be that way. I already told you I am a fan of you and your videos and am hoping for the best.
That being said... I would bet a large amount of money that you are busto by football season. That means your current bankroll - without getting a job.
The reason is simple. "Gut feel" successful longterm profitable gamblers do not exist IMO. They are the great white whales. There are months, even years - where gut feel gamblers can thrive. But it wont work longterm - or at least I have yet to see it work longterm.
To add to that - nobody goes 57% - 60%+ year after year on gut feel. And certainly nobody goes 57-60% year after year without doing some serious line shopping strategies.
The guys who do that percentage year after year do it by not only having predictive statistics models, but also by having predictive line movement models that pinpoint precise times and lines to buy. And most importantly - these guys KNOW HOW AND WHY THEY WIN. They are able to articulate the conditions necessary for them to win, and what specific segment they are able to exploit.
A guy who says "I don't know how I win" is doomed. A guy who wakes up and "caps" by reading previews and getting a gut feel, and then drives down to a sportsbook and bets in to -110 lines (often missing the best line) is doomed.
The biggest predictor of a longterm gamblers success is simply by how much he can beat the closing line. And to do this, it takes a lot more than just gut feel.
Once again, just being honest here. A lot of people don't like it when I am honest - most say it is too harsh - but I hope you take it in the way it is intended - for you to possibly take some of it to heart.
GL
EXACTLY WHAT I SAID, NO JOB, NO VEGAS...it's imperative that this boy finds a job.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Since you asked...
I am going to say this factually. It might sound harsh, but it is not meant to be that way. I already told you I am a fan of you and your videos and am hoping for the best.
That being said... I would bet a large amount of money that you are busto by football season. That means your current bankroll - without getting a job.
The reason is simple. "Gut feel" successful longterm profitable gamblers do not exist IMO. They are the great white whales. There are months, even years - where gut feel gamblers can thrive. But it wont work longterm - or at least I have yet to see it work longterm.
To add to that - nobody goes 57% - 60%+ year after year on gut feel. And certainly nobody goes 57-60% year after year without doing some serious line shopping strategies.
The guys who do that percentage year after year do it by not only having predictive statistics models, but also by having predictive line movement models that pinpoint precise times and lines to buy. And most importantly - these guys KNOW HOW AND WHY THEY WIN. They are able to articulate the conditions necessary for them to win, and what specific segment they are able to exploit.
A guy who says "I don't know how I win" is doomed. A guy who wakes up and "caps" by reading previews and getting a gut feel, and then drives down to a sportsbook and bets in to -110 lines (often missing the best line) is doomed.
The biggest predictor of a longterm gamblers success is simply by how much he can beat the closing line. And to do this, it takes a lot more than just gut feel.
Once again, just being honest here. A lot of people don't like it when I am honest - most say it is too harsh - but I hope you take it in the way it is intended - for you to possibly take some of it to heart.
GL
EXACTLY WHAT I SAID, NO JOB, NO VEGAS...it's imperative that this boy finds a job.
A question for vanzack or anybody else who cares to answer...
52.38% is a misnomer. If you are adjusting your wagers in proportion to your fluctuating bankroll then you can manipulate the "Break Even" percentage. Can you not?
52.38% is break even on flat betting.
If you alter your bets, than you can be profitable at any percentage. So to answer your question mathematically - you do not have to go 52.38% to break even financially.
There is no advice there. It is simply math.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:
A question for vanzack or anybody else who cares to answer...
52.38% is a misnomer. If you are adjusting your wagers in proportion to your fluctuating bankroll then you can manipulate the "Break Even" percentage. Can you not?
52.38% is break even on flat betting.
If you alter your bets, than you can be profitable at any percentage. So to answer your question mathematically - you do not have to go 52.38% to break even financially.
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