Posted:
#1201
Thanks for answering.
I wish you continued success.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper
Posted:
#1209
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
This thread is set up for an incredible implosion.
Should be interesting.
CG---
I think what CG is trying to say (and you touched on it briefly) is that yes, you might be right in saying that you are risking a smaller percentage of your bankroll when you only make 1 bet a day at a higher denomination but it's a heck of a lot easier to go 0-1 in a day as opposed to 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, etc.
So when you do have those 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3 days it is a lot less devastating on your bankroll as opposed to going 0-1 4 or 5 straight days at 1k a pop.
For example---if you had broken up that 0-4 streak you had 2 days ago into 0-1, 0-1, 0-1, 0-1 you'd be down $4,400 dollars as opposed to the
-$2,090 dollars you lost by having an atrocious 0-4 day, betting $550 a game (which happens and will continue to happen) and the odds of you going 0-4 in more than one day in a row are pretty astronomical. BUT IF you did go 0-4 two days in a row at betting $550 a game then you'd be down -$4,180 (give or take a few bucks depending on the juice). Which is still less than you going 0-1 four days in a row at betting $1,100 a game.
So imagine worst case scenario….you bet $1,100 a game one game a day and end up going 0-8 (odds are low but this is more realistic than going 0-4 2 consecutive days in a row). That means you'd be down $8,800 (assuming -110 juice). That's a big damn hit to your bankroll in just one week of betting. Your bankroll would decrease roughly 25%. Which is a ton, especially when you are dealing with the kind of money you are and considering this is now your job.
So I'm not trying to speak on the behalf of Vanzack BUT I think he made the "implosion" comment simply because of your rationale in post #1201 (at the very top of this page). Because to be honest CG, your rationale in post #1201 is backwards and probably not the best way to approach your betting strategy. I understand increasing your wager sizes some as your bankroll grows but be patient man. You've made a few K in just a week man, compare that to what you'd of earned in New Jersey during a 50 hour work week. I think it puts things in perspective.
I'm rooting for you as much as anyone buddy! Just thought I'd stop in with a little constructive criticism and hopefully shed some light on Vanzack's comment.
BOL today CG---let's pick a couple of winners and live the dream man.
PS---I now live on the east coast and am very jealous of that 3 hour time difference…I mean Christ, you can actually watch all the games and then go to bed at a "decent hour" 
Let's get that 
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Posted:
#1211
Ad1260- yes time zone here in unreal. Games end early and u still have the night. Bol bro hope u keep doing good yourself. Obviously two different schools of thought on this though. Bottom line yesterday is I bet 3.3% of my bankroll on one game instead of taking 2-4 games at my normal 1.8% or whatever. And I RISKED the second lowest amount of money overall in a betting day since I been here even though I made a K play. Obviously I realize I can't just do K plays everyday hence it was my first one in my 11 days out here...... Where u living on the east coast bro?
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Posted:
#1212
Whether u make one bet or ten bets I think the main key is the overall amount of money RISKED daily. Especially considering I've only done one K play in almost 30 career bets. And remember when I do a K play it's only just over 3% of my bankroll. It's haven't even risked near 5% of my bankroll on a given game......
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Posted:
#1213
I haven't even risked near 5% of my bankroll on a given day***** meant to say. And the last thing I wanna mention is how it's been mentioned betting one game is very "risky" because u have a chance to have a losing day bases on one bet, well u also have a chance to have a winning day without the stress of winning a game then getting right back into another one. Just food for thought. Great discussion fellas appreciate it
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Posted:
#1215
Nice win last night. A lot of good constructive discussion about bankroll management. I think in any business that you need to constantly be aware of how you are spending/applying your assets. There isn't always a right or wrong answer, but being cognitive of what you are doing, and why, is important, and it's also important to be aware of what you could be doing differently to optimize profits going forward. But outside of Tdog's trolling nonsense, most of the discussion is good.
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Posted:
#1216
Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:
The fact that the bet won in the final seconds doesn't change the logic and rationale of whether a $1000 bet was prudent or not. If you think it does, then you should probably stop betting.
This was a great win for CG, but a scary precedent, IMO.
The fact that the bet won in the final seconds doesn't change the logic and rationale of whether a $1000 bet was prudent or not. If you think it does, then you should probably stop betting.
This was a great win for CG, but a scary precedent, IMO.
Shut the hell up. No one cares that it " just won " in the final seconds. Should he give back half of the money because he only " just won " in your opinion? He will have his bad breaks as well we his lucky breaks.
I advised him not to watch the games he bets on as the sweat is unnecessary and especially as a full time gambler. If he did not watch this game and simply checked the box score all he would have seen is a winner. He would not have known that it " just won " nor does he need to. Covering by half a point or 20 points still pays the same.
It's his bankroll and it was his 'capping. No one gives a crap whether a stranger thinks the play was prudent. The main thing is that CG did and the beautiful thing is that he won.
St Patricks Day is next month. I bet you cannot wait to pi$$ on that parade.
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Posted:
#1217
CG-
Thanks man. I've been a little up and down but seem to be getting in a bit of a groove here lately (I hope).
I live in Winston-Salem, North Carolina at the moment. Home of Wake Forest. Definitely wouldn't mind heading west in the somewhat near future.
I'm still mulling over this college card for tonight...probably gonna stay away from NBA. Counting down the days until baseball starts!!! And then of course, the holy grail...FOOTBALL!!!!!
Bol today buddy. I'll be on the look out for your plays.
Thanks man. I've been a little up and down but seem to be getting in a bit of a groove here lately (I hope).
I live in Winston-Salem, North Carolina at the moment. Home of Wake Forest. Definitely wouldn't mind heading west in the somewhat near future.
I'm still mulling over this college card for tonight...probably gonna stay away from NBA. Counting down the days until baseball starts!!! And then of course, the holy grail...FOOTBALL!!!!!
Bol today buddy. I'll be on the look out for your plays.
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Posted:
#1219
Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:
I advised him not to watch the games he bets on as the sweat is unnecessary and especially as a full time gambler.
I advised him not to watch the games he bets on as the sweat is unnecessary and especially as a full time gambler.
Well then you did him no favors. He is a qualitative gambler. He needs to be watching a good number of these and other games he does not even bet on.
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Posted:
#1222
I am riding red hot in college hoops right now my dude. Seriously, if you go against the top bet game everyday, you will go 5-2 during the week. Last night was the Wisconsin Badgers, I rode that Penn St +12 into the sunset.
I, personally find tremendous value in Maryland -7( although so does the whole country today), SMU -6, and Purdue +5. That's where my heads going to be at for the 7pm starts.
Today's top 2 bet games are:
Maryland -7 & LATech -3
Gotta wait more till tip off though... Hope your enjoying your day
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Posted:
#1223
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:
A question for vanzack or anybody else who cares to answer...
52.38% is a misnomer. If you are adjusting your wagers in proportion to your fluctuating bankroll then you can manipulate the "Break Even" percentage. Can you not?
A question for vanzack or anybody else who cares to answer...
52.38% is a misnomer. If you are adjusting your wagers in proportion to your fluctuating bankroll then you can manipulate the "Break Even" percentage. Can you not?
Yes. % largely only matters assuming a relatively flat betting strategy.
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Posted:
#1224
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:
A question for vanzack or anybody else who cares to answer...
52.38% is a misnomer. If you are adjusting your wagers in proportion to your fluctuating bankroll then you can manipulate the "Break Even" percentage. Can you not?
A question for vanzack or anybody else who cares to answer...
52.38% is a misnomer. If you are adjusting your wagers in proportion to your fluctuating bankroll then you can manipulate the "Break Even" percentage. Can you not?
Sure you can, but it works both ways. You might need to hit 55% to break even depending on which bets win and which bets lose if you are adjusting your wager amounts.
I think the question to ask is, "what was the impetus for making UCLA a $1K wager last night?" Was it largely because of an 0-4 previous day (ie. law of averages). Was it because you felt like you were getting a good enough advantage on that game to warrant the increased bet (and if so, WHY did you think this....as van says, is this approach repeatable?)?
It appears CG caps on feel. And if that is the case, that's his right to do so.
But variance will ALWAYS rear its ugly head in some way, shape, or form. It's a matter of what approach you take to try and minimize that IMO.
And depending on variance to treat you well all the time is suicide...just like expecting variance to doom you is. At least when it comes to wager amounts.
You can have a reason to increase or decrease your wagers. But among those reasons lie both good and bad ones.
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Posted:
#1225
Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:
Shut the hell up. No one cares that it " just won " in the final seconds. Should he give back half of the money because he only " just won " in your opinion? He will have his bad breaks as well we his lucky breaks.
I advised him not to watch the games he bets on as the sweat is unnecessary and especially as a full time gambler. If he did not watch this game and simply checked the box score all he would have seen is a winner. He would not have known that it " just won " nor does he need to. Covering by half a point or 20 points still pays the same.
It's his bankroll and it was his 'capping. No one gives a crap whether a stranger thinks the play was prudent. The main thing is that CG did and the beautiful thing is that he won.
St Patricks Day is next month. I bet you cannot wait to pi$$ on that parade.
Shut the hell up. No one cares that it " just won " in the final seconds. Should he give back half of the money because he only " just won " in your opinion? He will have his bad breaks as well we his lucky breaks.
I advised him not to watch the games he bets on as the sweat is unnecessary and especially as a full time gambler. If he did not watch this game and simply checked the box score all he would have seen is a winner. He would not have known that it " just won " nor does he need to. Covering by half a point or 20 points still pays the same.
It's his bankroll and it was his 'capping. No one gives a crap whether a stranger thinks the play was prudent. The main thing is that CG did and the beautiful thing is that he won.
St Patricks Day is next month. I bet you cannot wait to pi$$ on that parade.
Everyone hopes he does well out there. Some people in this thread have offered constructive advice, some are trying to live vicariously through CG and still others are pure jock sniffers. Which category do you fall into?? Again, if you don't understand the difference between betting philosophy and "a play" you are unqualified for the first category.
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