Posted:
#12101
touts
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Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper
Posted:
#12103
Quote Originally Posted by mafioso:
With all due respect Goose, we have seen where the no flat betting got him.
With all due respect Goose, we have seen where the no flat betting got him.
You would figure this entire thread is a lesson on why Flat Betting and the Kelly Criterion is the only way to go.
Had he followed this strategy he would have 20k out of his 30k left.
Not true.
For those like CG who have zero discipline and zero money management skills, it's the best possible option. For those who have the necessary discipline, flat betting is foolish.
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Posted:
#12104
At the risk of sounding like a gambling peasant....
I have never bought in to the Kelly Criterion for the great majority of gamblers. The fatal flaw to me is that you have to accurately calculate the probability of winning that wager. This alone is a skill that even the best of the best have trouble doing - even at a high level. But to assign an actual number to it - and then have your odds of overall success rely on this calculation almost as much as whether you win or lose in the first place usually spells doom to the great majority.
There is no debating the validity on a theoretical level, but in real practice - my opinion is that you are better off with something else for MM.
I know I will have heated opinions come at me - keep in mind this is my opinion about the practice not the theory.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#12105
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
At the risk of sounding like a gambling peasant....
I have never bought in to the Kelly Criterion for the great majority of gamblers. The fatal flaw to me is that you have to accurately calculate the probability of winning that wager. This alone is a skill that even the best of the best have trouble doing - even at a high level. But to assign an actual number to it - and then have your odds of overall success rely on this calculation almost as much as whether you win or lose in the first place usually spells doom to the great majority.
There is no debating the validity on a theoretical level, but in real practice - my opinion is that you are better off with something else for MM.
I know I will have heated opinions come at me - keep in mind this is my opinion about the practice not the theory.
Also meant to add....
The stakes a true Kelly will suggest are WAY too high for a typical gambler - and that is exponentially affected when you are unable to assign a win percentage that is fairly accurate.
Maybe a 1/4 Kelly staking size or even less would be much more appropriate.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#12108
I like CNotes in my hand after I win also. But I don't bet like CG bets. My bets average about $100 a game. As I've said before, this is a hobby to me rather than a rent paid do or die experience.
Today is a perfect example how stubborn CG can be at times. He knows I am an expert on the Red Sox. I can tell you any Red Sox stat you need to know down to Single-A Greenville.
CG emails me early this morning and wants to know what I think of the Red Sox. I proceed to tell him that Buchholtz has been a stud on the road this season and the Red Sox have a history of abusing Dickey. Red Sox are a VERY SOLID play at +110 even without Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez. Toronto is a "False Favorite" as KeyElement likes to call them.
What's CG do? He passes. Red Sox win 3-1.
He is going to be his own man. He will play his money how he feels. I can't stop him. Nobody can.
I feel CG is gearing up to drop an ALL-IN Bomb, so stay tuned.
Wait for a good one CG. I'm on your side. Just wait for a good one and tee it high and let it fly.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
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Posted:
#12109
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:
I like CNotes in my hand after I win also. But I don't bet like CG bets. My bets average about $100 a game. As I've said before, this is a hobby to me rather than a rent paid do or die experience.
Today is a perfect example how stubborn CG can be at times. He knows I am an expert on the Red Sox. I can tell you any Red Sox stat you need to know down to Single-A Greenville.
CG emails me early this morning and wants to know what I think of the Red Sox. I proceed to tell him that Buchholtz has been a stud on the road this season and the Red Sox have a history of abusing Dickey. Red Sox are a VERY SOLID play at +110 even without Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez. Toronto is a "False Favorite" as KeyElement likes to call them.
What's CG do? He passes. Red Sox win 3-1.
He is going to be his own man. He will play his money how he feels. I can't stop him. Nobody can.
I feel CG is gearing up to drop an ALL-IN Bomb, so stay tuned.
Wait for a good one CG. I'm on your side. Just wait for a good one and tee it high and let it fly.
I like CNotes in my hand after I win also. But I don't bet like CG bets. My bets average about $100 a game. As I've said before, this is a hobby to me rather than a rent paid do or die experience.
Today is a perfect example how stubborn CG can be at times. He knows I am an expert on the Red Sox. I can tell you any Red Sox stat you need to know down to Single-A Greenville.
CG emails me early this morning and wants to know what I think of the Red Sox. I proceed to tell him that Buchholtz has been a stud on the road this season and the Red Sox have a history of abusing Dickey. Red Sox are a VERY SOLID play at +110 even without Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez. Toronto is a "False Favorite" as KeyElement likes to call them.
What's CG do? He passes. Red Sox win 3-1.
He is going to be his own man. He will play his money how he feels. I can't stop him. Nobody can.
I feel CG is gearing up to drop an ALL-IN Bomb, so stay tuned.
Wait for a good one CG. I'm on your side. Just wait for a good one and tee it high and let it fly.
Nice to see he treats his enemies the same way as his friends when it comes to offering him capping advice.
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Posted:
#12110
Not much going on. On days where CG sees nothing he usually plays some parlays for the he11 of it. Here's a three-teamer he nailed yesterday but probably lost money on some others.
file:///C:/DOCUME~1/MICHAE~1/LOCALS~1/Temp/IMG_8322_zps1wvtzs7e-1.JPEG
Parlays should not be part of "professional" playbook IMHO.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
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Posted:
#12112
Oh my God, I can’t believe this thread is still alive! Better yet, I can’t believe CG is still alive.
I haven’t checked-in since shortly after his
account “allegedly” got hacked by a racist maniac. I thought he would have definitely
got into the 401K or moved back to Jersey by now.
I am really having a hard time believing he’s still working on the original roll. If this is true, I would say CG has - at the very least, provided himself with a long vacation.
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Posted:
#12113
Van - thanks for the comments on the Kelly Criterion. I've read it - understand the theory/concept - I think the issue is one's own belief in the probability of success for an upcoming event as you pointed out. If you have had success and truly believe you have an edge - bet it up. No edge don't bet. The problem is - as you stated what is the true probability of the upcoming event vice what your mind is telling you. If you believe in your data and can truly come up with something quantifiable and your able to answer the question - Based on ____(whatever one believes)_____ results in _____(Team A winning)______ 95% of the time - then I'm taking Team A for a chunk of my bankroll. Until you come up with what you believe are the key drivers in a game and then collect, organize and base your decisions on previous results so you can answer the question above - you probably are not going to be able to have success with the Kelly Criterion - just my thoughts.
Goose - thanks for being a liason between CG and this thread. Regarding your Boston Redsox advice - I've found many of us bet on sports because we have big egos and believe in our methods- at the end of the day many think - if i'm going down it's on my terms - thus it's hard for someone to take advice or even consider someone elses thoughts - anyways - I do hope CG figures it out.
Good luck all.
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Posted:
#12120
Quote Originally Posted by Bling:
What?
not my fault the site would not take the message and then ended up taking it 5 times. What?
Speaking of 5 timers, the original poster mentioned getting cut off from his bookies and that probably includes his on line accounts.
I believe folks move to Vegas in order to get bets in "incognito" $3-$5 grand here and there at a few casinos without the fear of them not taking your action as you can always grab a few accomplices to stick bets in for you - this is a common practice.
If you don't trust any accomplices you can always go for the Groucho Marx nose and glasses
The pen is mightier than the pigs
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Posted:
#12125
Quote Originally Posted by bearfan21:
When your down to playing 3 team parlays the end is near
When your down to playing 3 team parlays the end is near
I personally am not a fan of parlays (or teasers).
I'll let CG explain to you guys in his own words.
These are direct email quotes that CG wants to share...
"To answer their question why would I not keep parlaying? Look what I am up on them yet down on separate betting. The parlay and or small bet grind is on. I will be around with a bankroll that can do some damage for these two best betting sports. College Football and NFL. Show them the tickets and all this I wrote u. Thanks again for keeping this thing alive Goose. I'm the friggin New Jersey cockroach. I take no advice from anyone and run my operation exactly how I please and I'm alive. My 401K hasn't even been transferred yet to the people who think I am into it already. I don't quit thanks for those being believers but honestly I don't care if no1 believes in me. I love betting on sports more than anyone in the world and I am alive and getting ready for College and Pro Football."
"There was a week in May when I hit a $100 three team dog parlay on Saturday for $1700 then on Monday hit a $20 five team dog parlay for $1300+ and also a 4 team dog parlay for $1700... Then what I do? I lose 3 parlays only throwing back $400 or so from all of that and then start doing my "K" plays separate and go 2-9 and blow it all. So obviously I'm sticking with parlays now. Defies logic but the smart and most profitable move for ME right now shown by my experiences here. Football I can bet separate and obviously I'm sure I'll bomb away soon in bases but I think u understand what I am saying. Got to go with what is working."
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
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