Posted:
#3026
OKC @ LAL IS NOT an 11am Pacific Time game.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper
Posted:
#3034
CG.
I'll start by saying that I do not have a dog in this fight. Meaning, I only bet on baseball, so your picks mean absolutely nothing to me.
I have made 1 other post in this thread and it basically said that you seem very likeable and that I am pulling for you.
I also said that you kept mentioning "if I don't drink...." I told you it was simple. If you know you have a drinking problem (you obviously do), just don't f-ing drink. You literally can't do it.
I mentioned how you keep saying "this is what professionals do..." "I take this very seriously..." "I'm very humble...." I told you it was almost as if you were saying those things to convince yourself that they were indeed true.
I also told you that you should listen to Vanzack. I know not everyone loves the guy, but his insights are fantastic.
After watching this play out the last 10 days or so since I posted, this is what I have concluded.
You're likeable when everyone agrees with you. When they don't, forget it. You're a complete tool. Add some alcohol and you become downright pathetic.
A professional? What a friggin' joke. I'm no pro, but I used to run a small book (75 guys) and have seen your type over and over. You hit at a nice rate for a little while and you think you are the man. It's like shooting fish in a barrel. It's easy money. Then, without fail, every single guy like you gives it back. I never had a year that more than 5 guys finished in the black. Why? Look in the mirror. 95% of them are you. And that is a fact.
1. You're cocky. (legendary after 40 picks?? wtf???)
2. You're "money management" absolutely blows.
3. You're "dedication" is hardly that.
I know you will tell me to go F myself, and that's fine. All I'm really trying to do is open your eyes. You're a time bomb. You should check yourself. Rethink. Stay away from booze. Stop treating this like it's a joke. You can say how serious you are, but the posts, vids, and plays themselves say otherwise.
Vanzack offered to help you. Take him up on it. Or at least go read his posts. The guy knows his sh*t and seems to actually want to help. That goes for any of you following this post, really. Put your ego's aside and try to learn.
This is absolutely true. I got a fortune cookie the other day, and this is what it said... "Many receive advice, only the wise profit from it." I immediately thought of CG.
Listening is a skill. It's not a dirty word.
Good luck to you CG. Seriously.
Posted:
#3040
Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
Note about sample sizes, since that pops up in the comments frequently.
Note about sample sizes, since that pops up in the comments frequently.
To know with 95% certainty that someone hitting at 60% is actually a winning bettor (>52% long term) and that the record isn't due just to pure luck, you need a sample size of around 170 bets. If you can accept a 90% certainty 120 bets is adequate.
CG's 95% confidence intervall is included in the sheet I've posted earlier (https://goo.gl/lfl5IT). It's currently at 47%-74%, meaning that his true long term hitting %age is somewhere in that domain with a certainty of 95%
These numbers are just so not true. Just because a guy hits 60 percent at 170 bets, there is no stat that can say he will hit over 52 percent for the next 170 games. Flawed math at its finest.
Trying to predict somebodys long term winning percentage is just like that person trying to predict the winner of each play.
170 games lmfaoooooo
Posted:
#3042
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:
meh.
vanzack bet $5K against CG.
And then tells CG about it.
How is that helping?
That's not helping, that is pushing a guy's buttons.
It like an ex-wife move.
meh.
vanzack bet $5K against CG.
And then tells CG about it.
How is that helping?
That's not helping, that is pushing a guy's buttons.
It like an ex-wife move.
I take it as a kick in the pants. A challenge. Guys need to be motivated in different ways. CG obviously takes it pesonally when questioned. It's how he goes about trying to "show you" that worries me.
Vanzack may be a smarta** at times, but I don't see it as him talking down to CG. I see it as being honest and hoping he (Van) is wrong. I'd say the same thing about me. I want him to succeed. I don't get off like half of these idiots on the "I told you so's". I just see red flags that I have seen 1000's of times before. That's all.
Again, just my humble opinion.
And for what it's worth goose. You're a solid poster. I read a lot of 'em. We just disagree on this one.
Posted:
#3044
3/1/15
UConn Huskies +1.5 (-110) $1100/$1000
How bout a "sharp" side steps up for once... Tried to be "sharp"
yesterday with Xavier and Utah and 
The world champions want to win out and they were embarrassed in Dallas by the SMU basketball organization. I really think this team is going to step up and play a big time ballgame and win outright by like 7 or so. And it is great we are getting +1.5 with the World Champs at home. Also as good as SMU is are they really going to win at Memphis and then at complete the season sweep of UConn in consecutive games? I saw NO, or if they do then win by one
Can CG get the K play record to 4-2? and stop the 2 game K play losing streak after a 3-0 K play start... stay tuned
Posted:
#3046
Michigan State Spartans +9.5 (-110) $550/$500
I love how we get a quality team at +9.5 who is coming off a horrific loss to the Gophers at home. Don't care Wiscy lost there last game at Maryland too many pts... Sparty will play there a$$ off and lose by like 4 or so
Purdue Boilermakers +9.5 (-110) $550/$500
The way this ballclub is playing now and you are giving me +9.5? Might very well be a trap but I am def a sucker with that line.. +9.5 all day the way this organization is playing ball. Love there size down low, this is a scary ballclub if they ever get hot from outside shooting because there size alone makes them very tough.
I got two good numbers on these two games... only one book here I saw them at +9.5 and I made the trip there to get these generous numbers
Lets go HUSKIES, SPARTANS, and BOILERS
Posted:
#3048
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
How does my money management blow? U realize I have never risked more than 3% of my bankroll. 90% it my plays have been at 2% of my roll...
How does my money management blow? U realize I have never risked more than 3% of my bankroll. 90% it my plays have been at 2% of my roll...
I do realize that, yes. Thanks for pointing it out though.
What is your rhyme or reason for your amounts? You were literally saying that you are going to start playing 1 game a day because you were 3-0 on dime plays, so that seemed the way to go. You change your "management" daily, based on results the day before, your mood, your anger, etc.
I am almost certain that if you spit the bit today, that tomorrow you will be playing 1500 a game. I'm not being a smarta**. I'm speaking from a little experience. You're not as innovative and brilliant as you think.
Again, stay humble. Rethink. DO NOT CARE WHAT ANYONE IN THIS FORUM THINKS. Slow and steady wins. I get the feeling sometimes that you want to build your roll yesterday. If it was that f-ing easy, we'd all be doing it.
Posted:
#3050
unless you guys have connections in major books or personally know the people who move lines, you can try guessing until the cows come home which side is sharp and which side is square, you will never know.
also on every game, theres always going to be squares and sharps lined up against other. sometimes sharps win, sometimes squares win. Thats a fact
also on every game, theres always going to be squares and sharps lined up against other. sometimes sharps win, sometimes squares win. Thats a fact
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